基于EMD-MFOA-ELM的瓦斯涌出量时变序列预测研究

为准确分析工作面绝对瓦斯涌出量的非平稳特征,实现瓦斯涌出量的准确预测,基于经验模态分解(EMD)、修正的果蝇优化算法(MFOA)和极限学习机(ELM)基本原理,构建瓦斯涌出量的EMD-MFOA-ELM多尺度时变预测模型。通过EMD将瓦斯涌出量时变序列进行深层次分解,获得多尺度本征模态函数(IMF);采用MFOA-ELM对各IMF时变序列建立动态预测模型,等权叠加各预测值,得到模型最终预测结果。以晋煤某矿瓦斯涌出量监测时序样本为例进行研究分析,结果表明:EMD能充分挖掘出监测数据隐含信息,有效降低数据复杂度;该模型预测相对误差为0.024 3%~0.651 0%,平均值仅为0.252 6%,预测精度和泛化能力高于未经EMD分解模型,能很好地适用于非平稳时变序列预测。     

The evolution of climate policies - the role of learning and evaluations

All member states of the EU have had to develop climate strategies following the commitment to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The evolution of the strategies provides insights into the learning that takes place at the level of policy development and offers material for analysing how ex ante and ex post evaluations have contributed to this learning. In the analysis, Finland is used as a case demonstrating different levels and types of learning, from deeper reframing to political learning. The results show that the full potential of the evaluations has not been utilised, partly because they have been constrained by their mandate. Greater openness and transparency in the policy processes would create favourable conditions for independent evaluations that could provide additional input to the policy processes. This would support social and reflexive learning and allow for greater adaptability.     

邻苯二甲酸二异癸酯对小鼠学习记忆的影响

为研究增塑剂邻苯二甲酸二异癸酯（DIDP）对小鼠学习和记忆能力的影响,以白藜芦醇（Res）作为保护剂,将42只雄性昆明小鼠随机分为6组,每组7只,分别为：生理盐水组、1.5,15,150mg/（kg·d） DIDP组、20mg/（kg·d） Res组、150mg/（kg·d） DIDP+20mg/（kg·d） Res组.连续灌胃染毒9d,期间同时进行Morris水迷宫实验.第10d将小鼠处死,取出脑组织,检测活性氧簇（ROS）、谷胱甘肽（GSH）、丙二醛（MDA）、8-羟基脱氧鸟苷（8-OHdG）、肿瘤坏死因子（TNF-α）、白细胞介素1β（IL-1β）的含量.并对小鼠海马体切片进行H&E染色,观察病理变化.结果显示,15,150mg/（kg·d） DIDP染毒可导致小鼠的学习和记忆能力显著低于对照组,同时可诱发脑组织产生氧化应激,并促进炎症因子释放,而Res能有效减弱脑组织氧化应激水平.由上可得,DIDP致小鼠学习和记忆能力下降可能与其引起的脑组织中海马体的氧化损伤有关,同时Res可能通过降低DIDP引起的氧化应激进而减轻其对小鼠造成的学习记忆损伤.     

高等院校教育技术的发展思路探讨

本文阐述了高等院校教育技术的发展现状,分析了高等院校教育技术发展的特点,对高等院校教育技术的发展进行理性思考。认为高等院校应该在重视教育技术实践性和支持性研究的基础上,立足现实,更全面审视机构整合、教育信息化、信息资源库建设和教师培训这些热点问题。     

Associative learning of odor with food- or blood-meal by Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae)

The ability of many insects to learn has been documented. However, a limited number of studies examining associative learning in medically important arthropods has been published. Investigations into the associative learning capabilities of Culex quinquefasciatus Say were conducted by adapting methods commonly used in experiments involving Hymenoptera. Male and female mosquitoes were able to learn a conditioned stimulus that consisted of an odor not normally encountered in nature (synthetic strawberry or vanilla extracts) in association with an unconditioned stimulus consisting of either a sugar (males and females) or blood (females) meal. Such information could lead to a better understanding of the ability of mosquitoes to locate and select host and food resources in nature.     

胚胎期和哺乳期全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)暴露致大鼠学习记忆能力下降

为了探讨全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)的发育神经毒性,寻找PFOS发育神经毒性作用的敏感期,利用水迷宫和组织病理切片技术,研究了胚胎期和哺乳期暴露于PFOS后新生大鼠发育情况、学习记忆能力、抓力以及海马组织病理学改变。结果显示：PFOS导致仔鼠发育迟缓,睁眼期延迟。仔鼠出生后体重与对照组相比出现显著性降低。同一PFOS暴露浓度下,胚胎期暴露组体重低于哺乳期暴露组,抓力差异不显著。水迷宫实验结果显示,TT15(胚胎期和哺乳期均暴露于15 mg·L^-1 PFOS)和TC15(仅胚胎期暴露于15 mg·L^-1 PFOS)暴露组仔鼠逃避潜伏期显著高于对照组,且TC15暴露组仔鼠逃避潜伏期显著性高于CT15(仅哺乳期暴露于15 mg·L^-1 PFOS)暴露组。空间探索实验中,TT15暴露组仔鼠在目标象限的游泳时间显著性低于对照组,其他组无显著性差异。组织病理切片结果显示暴露组海马组织细胞数量减少,出现细胞凋亡现象。结果表明,PFOS造成仔鼠的发育延迟以及学习记忆能力下降的关键作用时期可能是胚胎期。     

The role of social learning for soil conservation: the case of Amba Zuria land management,Ethiopia

Social learning plays key roles in sustainable natural resource management; however, studies on its role show mixed results. Even though most current studies highlight positive outcomes, there are also negative effects of social learning with respect to natural resource management. This paper explores the influence of social learning outcomes on the adoption of soil conservation practices in Amba Zuria, Ethiopia. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews, group discussions and in workshops. The interviews were transcribed and analysed with the qualitative data analysis software ATLAS.ti. In addition, a review of pertinent documents and literature complements the analysis. We found that social learning results in positive outcomes in interactions among the actors, broader understanding on soil conservation, trust and mutual understanding, and the creation of opportunities to apply both indigenous and scientific knowledge. These outcomes, in turn, foster the adoption of stone terraces to conserve soils. No such positive results were found for farmers who were not involved in the learning process and who did not adopt stone terraces. The non-adoption can partly be explained by their exclusion from sharing the positive outcomes of social learning. The study also shows limitations related to the short duration of the learning platforms, insufficient representation of women and irregular patterns of learning schedules. Hence, Ethiopian soil conservation strategies should put emphasis on social learning in order to strengthen the collective processes of soil conservation measures.     

Finding Hope in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Abstract:  Over the past quarter century, a new scientific activity has emerged: collective assessments by large numbers of scientists from different disciplines combining their expertise to better understand human interrelations with nature and to inform policy. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment exceeded all such assessments before it in both the breadth of its coverage and the depth of its analysis of socioecological system dynamics. The findings are not encouraging. Nearly all ecosystems are being degraded and will continue to be degraded for decades to come even if policy changes are initiated now. For scientists participating in the assessment, the MA had another disconcerting aspect. It clearly shows that our fragmented, disciplinary knowledges cannot simply be combined to form an understanding of a whole complex system. Counterbalancing the despair of the findings and scientific difficulties of aggregating specialized knowledges, the MA demonstrated the potential of a deliberative democratic approach to grappling with complex problems .     

RS-PSO-ELM下腐蚀管道失效压力预测

为提高腐蚀管道失效压力的预测精度并简化其计算过程,提出基于粗糙集(RS)和粒子群算法(PSO)融合极限学习机(ELM)的腐蚀管道失效压力预测模型。通过属性约简提取影响失效压力的关键因素,选用PSO优化ELM的输入权值和隐含层偏差,将归一化的核心指标数据代入计算。结果表明:该模型预测结果与实际值基本一致,与单一ELM模型相比,预测结果的均方差(MSE)降至0.255;与其他蚀管道失效压力评价模型相比,该模型预测结果的绝对误差平均值降至0.32。     

Cycle Aware: Piloting a module for novice drivers

Introduction: In low-cycling countries, motor-vehicle traffic and driver behavior are well known barriers to the uptake of bicycles, particularly for utility cycling. Lack of separation between cyclists and faster-moving traffic is one key issue, while attitudes of drivers toward and/or harassment of cyclists is another. Cyclist-related driver education has been recommended as a means to improve driver-cyclist interactions. Methods: The driver licensing process provides an opportunity for such education. The Cycle Aware module was developed to test and enhance novice drivers’ knowledge of interacting safely with cyclists. It was piloted across three Australian jurisdictions targeting both novice and experienced drivers. Participants were asked to complete the Cycle Aware module and an accompanying survey. A total of 134 novice and 97 experienced drivers completed the survey with 42 novice and 50 experienced drivers going on to complete the module. Results: Both groups of drivers scored equally well in the module but the very youngest and very oldest participants were more likely to have some incorrect responses. We did not find any relationship between correct module scores and attitudes toward cyclists. Survey results showed both novice and experienced drivers had somewhat positive attitudes toward cyclists. The two cohorts differed on several attitude questions. Sixty percent (60%) of novices compared to 30% of experienced drivers reported feeling concerned when sharing the road with cyclists, and novices were less likely to agree that cyclists had a right to use the roads. Conclusions and practical applications: The analysis suggests novices need to be better equipped to share roads confidently with cyclists and to recognize cyclists as legitimate traffic participants.