卡尔曼滤波理论在预报地面径流污染中的应用

本文主要介绍流域径流污染的系统分析方法，并提出采用卡尔曼滤波理论进行仿真，从而实现污染的预报。     

基于TPB的炼化装置大检修违章安全管理应用实践

针对安全管理制度、监督制度、安全黑名单等对违章行为态度、违章主观规范和违章知觉行为控制的重要影响,构建了基于计划行为理论的炼化装置大检修违章安全管理模式,并通过强化管理制度建设、建立违章黑名单、全员安全积分劳动竞赛等具体应用实践,有效降低并避免实际违章行为,充分保障了装置大检修期间的现场安全。     

国外凹凸棒石粘土的若干情况

本文主要介绍国外特别是美国凹凸棒石或坡缕缟石的名称由来、分布、基础理论和物化性能研究，开发应用，产品标准，公司及规模，与我国凹凸棒石粘土研究、开发应用的比较等。     

利用航空γ能谱资料快速预测环境氡浓度

航空γ能谱测量方法是核辐射区域本地调查,区域环境中核辐射污染调查和评价的有效方法。文中不同于以往的利用航空γ能谱测量数据换算地面(1 m高)空气吸收剂量率的方法,而是运用大地-大气氡交换理论模型及氡的析出率理论,预测区域空气中氡浓度,并可计算出区域氡地质潜势。计算结果表明方法快速、高效,具有较好的实用价值。     

环境污染系统的灰色投入产出模型

将投入产出模型与灰色理论结合起来，建立了以灰色预测为基础的环境污染系统灰色投入产出模型，探索了如何从污染物总量控制目标出发来规划和发展生产。     

Dioxin removal in “energy from waste plants” - comparison of air pollution control methods

The graph below shows the emitted dioxin - equivalents (Eadon) in grams per year in flue gas from municipal solid waste incinerators with various air pollution control methods for plants of capacity of 200 000 ton municipal solid waste (MSW) per year.

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With optimized combustion and an effective air pollution control system the emissions of dioxins can be kept very low (concentrations below 0.1 ng/m³n).

With a very effective air pollution control system the total emission from all Swedish MSW-incinerators burning approximately 1.5 Mton/year will by 1990 be below 2 g/year - a drastic reduction from approximately 15 g today. As the total dioxin - equivalent emission to the environment in Sweden in the year 1987 was almost 500 g we see that municipal waste incineration really is on the way to solve their dioxin problem.     

A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl (  Ninox strenua ).     

城市空气颗粒物开放源理论与治理技术研究进展

城市空气颗粒物开放源已成为大气颗粒物的主要来源之一，它对改善我国城市空气环境质量具有重要意义。开放源是一种复合源类，具有源强不确定和排放不连续等特点。其所排放的主要污染物是扬尘。但目前只有少数的开放源类起尘量可以进行估算。国内外一般对城市空气颗粒物开放源的防治对策有生态环境综合整治或生态修复治理、湿法防尘、将堆放物用覆盖物覆盖或封闭储存等。     

Risk-taking by female ducks: intra- and interspecific tests of nest defense theory

We tested several predictions of nest defense theory by observing variation in flushing distance and probability of nest abandonment within and between six species of waterfowl. In these species, only the females incubate eggs and attend offspring. First, we examined whether flushing distance by females varied in relation to clutch size, stage of incubation, and time of season, after controlling for the number of visits made to nests by observers. Revisits by observers appeared to affect flushing distance by females for reasons unrelated to the relative value of the current clutch. We found that as incubation progressed, females allowed observers to approach more closely before flushing from the nest. In some species, females with larger clutches allowed closer approaches to nests before flushing which was also consistent with nest defense theory. In contrast, time of season (Julian date) did not relate to flushing distance for any species. When species were compared, we found that species with moderate to high yearly mortality and high reproductive output per breeding attempt (e.g., northern shoveler and blue-winged teal) were less likely to abandon nesting attempts and exhibited riskier behavior (remained at nests when approached closely by observers) than species that had lower yearly mortality (e.g., mallard). Our results show that flushing distance and patterns of nest abandonment by female ducks conform to several predictions of nest defense theory.Correspondence to: M.R.L. Forbes