基于信息融合的建筑施工安全预警管理研究

针对建筑业安全事故率居高不下的现状,找出事故频发的主要原因。基于主要原因中人、机、环境和管理4方面数据和信息的复杂性、不确定性,提出采用信息融合技术的D-S证据理论法对建筑施工全过程中的人、机、环境、管理4方面的数据和信息进行分析和预测,并构建建筑施工安全预警管理预测模型。该预测模型能判断建筑施工项目的"安全状态",能解决建筑施工中安全事故及危险源的预测问题;同时针对具体情况采取防范措施,及时矫正安全隐患和确保安全施工。将D-S证据理论法应用于建筑施工安全预警管理中,扩展了建筑施工安全管理的手段。     

沿海和河口城市防灾设防标准系统分析

本文针对天津、上海、青岛等三种不同类型的沿海、河口城市,运用灰色理论、随机模拟等方法进行了洪水、风暴湖、巨浪等环境因素的计算,并进行了灾害经济损失的风险分析,给出了不同的防灾设防标准。     

汽车修理养护企业挥发性有机物排放控制标准探讨

通过对汽车修理养护企业喷烤漆废气排放现状进行调查分析,指出中国目前适用于控制汽车修理养护企业废气排放的标准《大气污染物综合排放标准》(GB 16297-1996)在实际运用中存在的问题。依据《制定地方大气污染物排放标准的技术方法》(GB/T 3840-1991)《大气污染物综合排放标准详解》《工作场所有害因素职业接触限值化学有害因素》(GBZ 2.1-2007)《工业企业设计卫生标准》(TJ 36-1979)、美国环保局多介质环境模型等,用不同方法计算汽车修理养护企业排放的废气中几种挥发性有机物的排放浓度和排放速率限值,并对监测结果进行评价分析,提出编制汽车修理养护企业废气排放控制标准的建议。     

Planning theories and environmental impact assessment

The limited and sporadic interaction between EIA and planning theory has meant that EIA has largely failed to benefit from planning theory insights and lessons. Obstacles and dilemmas already encountered and addressed in planning theory are still hampering EIA theory building and practice. An overview of the characteristics, strengths, and limitations of five major planning theories—rationalism, pragmatism, socio-ecological idealism (SEI), political-economic mobilization (PEM), and communications and collaboration (CC) is presented in an effort to ameliorate this problem. EIA parallels to each planning theory and lessons for EIA are identified. Also addressed are the application of planning theories to different context types, overlaps, interconnections and middle ground concepts among theories, the integration of values, ethics, and postmodern perspectives and the potential to construct composite theories.     

基于博弈论的突发性水污染事件治污决策模型

针对当前严重的水污染问题,采用博弈论对突发性水污染事件治污决策进行了研究,为事件应急管理提供理论支撑与决策支持。基于经典博弈论构建了信息不对称下突发性水污染事件中管理部门与企业之间的信号博弈模型,对信号发送方企业的类型空间、信号空间和信号接收方管理部门的行动空间进行假设,求得了模型的精炼贝叶斯均衡解,并对不同参数取值下的均衡解进行了分析。基于有限理性建立了企业群治污决策进化博弈模型,通过求解模型复制动态方程得到了不同参数取值下的进化稳定策略,并对模型进化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:对突发性水污染事件进行治污决策时,通过公开企业信息与信誉,提高对企业是否采取治污策略的奖惩力度,采用现代先进信息技术降低企业治污与管理部门检查的成本等方式有助于企业采取治污策略。     

Fluid bed gasification – Plasma converter process generating energy from solid waste: Experimental assessment of sulphur species

Often perceived as a Cinderella material, there is growing appreciation for solid waste as a renewable content thermal process feed. Nonetheless, research on solid waste gasification and sulphur mechanisms in particular is lacking. This paper presents results from two related experiments on a novel two stage gasification process, at demonstration scale, using a sulphur-enriched wood pellet feed.Notable SO₂ and relatively low COS levels (before gas cleaning) were interesting features of the trials, and not normally expected under reducing gasification conditions. Analysis suggests that localised oxygen rich regions within the fluid bed played a role in SO₂’s generation. The response of COS to sulphur in the feed was quite prompt, whereas SO₂ was more delayed. It is proposed that the bed material sequestered sulphur from the feed, later aiding SO₂ generation. The more reducing gas phase regions above the bed would have facilitated COS – hence its faster response. These results provide a useful insight, with further analysis on a suite of performed experiments underway, along with thermodynamic modelling.     

Is There a Metabolism of an Urban Ecosystem? An Ecological Critique

The energy and material flows of a city are often described as urban metabolism (UM), which is put forward as a way to link a city's ecology and economy. UM draws parallels to the biology of individual organisms, yet the analogy is misapplied. In striving to be interdisciplinary, UM makes this organismic comparison rather than identifying the city as an ecosystem, thereby ignoring developments in ecological theory. Using inappropriate rhetoric misdirects researchers, which influences scientific investigation-from problem statements to interpretations. UM is valuable in quantifying the city's use of natural resources but does not achieve a comprehensive, integrated analysis of the urban ecosystem. To realize an interdisciplinary, perhaps transdisciplinary, understanding of urban ecology, researchers need to emphasize the essential tenets of material flows analysis, view the city as an ecosystem, and use language that properly reflects current knowledge, theory, and conceptual frameworks in the foundational disciplines.     

Decomposition of 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl with iron supported on an activated carbon from an ion-exchange resin

An activated carbon (AC) containing a high concentration (374 mg g⁻¹) of Fe was prepared by carbonization of an ion-exchange resin. To examine its chemical reactivity as a catalyst to decompose 2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153), the decomposition parameters of temperature and time were varied under air or N₂. Decomposition at 350 °C was achieved within 15 min under air and 30 min under N₂, and the efficiency of PCB-153 decomposition was 99.7% and 98.0%, respectively. An analysis of inorganic chloride ions revealed that PCB-153 was mineralized effectively during the decomposition. The Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface area and pore volume of the AC were measured to assess the adsorption capacity before and after the decomposition. The differences between decomposition under air and N₂ reflected the differences in the BET surface and pore volume measurements. A decomposition pathway was postulated, and the reactive characteristics of chlorine atoms loaded on the benzene rings followed the order of para > meta > ortho, which agrees with the calculated results from a density functional theory study.     

农地整治项目投资分摊博弈机理研究——以政府和企业为例

投资主体、建设主体与受益主体不一致是导致我国农地整治项目效率偏低的根本原因,公私合作(PPP)模式是从制度层面提升我国农地整治项目效率的理想模式。本文首先界定了农地整治项目PPP模式,分析了PPP模式下农地整治项目的运行机制及其博弈关系,建立了农地整治项目投资的成本收益函数;然后以政府与农业产业化企业间的博弈为例,在探讨他们博弈要素的基础上构建了投资博弈模型,提出了二者理想的投资决策边界;最后用一个典型案例论证了本文的分析结果。研究结果表明,新增耕地面积和项目建设成本是影响农地整治项目效益发挥的主要因素。农地整治项目PPP模式顺利实施的条件是:当项目政府补贴较低时,企业投入高建设成本得到的支付不低于其保留支付。项目高效运行的条件是:当项目政府补贴较高时,企业投入低建设成本得到的支付不高于其保留支付;与投入低建设成本相比,企业选择高建设成本得到农地经营收益的增加值不小于其增加的成本值。     

基于演化博弈的流域生态补偿利益冲突分析

资源合理利用与环境保护是维护当今经济平稳、健康、较快发展的重要前提。生态补偿是缓解经济快速发展与环境污染、生态环境破坏之间利益矛盾冲突的重要手段。它是为了制止生态破坏而征收或补偿的费用,所以不同于一般排污费和资源补偿费。本文根据补偿的类型不同,将生态补偿分为资源型生态补偿和环境型生态补偿。本文以流域生态补偿为例,将流域上游政府的策略简化为保护或不保护河流,下游政府针对上游的情况,选择"自主型"或"接受型",运用演化博弈的方法,分析流域生态补偿的特点和结果。结果表明:流域生态补偿需要中央政府的适度干预,而且关键点是保证上游地方政府收益始终最大化;中央政府干预的程度是使上游政府群的收益在保护的情况下比不保护的收益要大,而干预的结果则是使流域上下游的(保护,补偿)策略成为演化博弈的长期稳定均衡。最后本文针对我国现行流域管理体制,为我国流域生态补偿提供了政策建议,以推广我国生态补偿政策。