中国湿地生态补偿的利益博弈分析

我国采取了一系列加强湿地生态环境保护的措施,推进了湿地生态状况的改善.但在实践过程中,生态保护仍存在着结构性的政策缺位,湿地生态补偿作为调整损害与保护生态环境主体间利益关系的一种制度安排,是保护生态环境的有效措施.从博弈论的角度出发,分析湿地生态补偿的利益相关者,通过建立湿地生态补偿主体和客体的博弈模型,得出湿地生态补偿主体、客体的纳什均衡策略,并提出针对性的建议.     

基于IPA理论的会展旅游目的地形象研究——以苏州市为例

在分析会展旅游目的地形象内涵与构成要素的基础上,以苏州为例,通过实地调研与访谈获取数据,并根据IPA理论分析苏州会展旅游目的地形象的基本特点,提出城市会展旅游目的地形象的提升策略,以期为同类型城市发展会展旅游提供借鉴与参考.     

环境监管失职罪的正确认定

结合真实案例探讨了环境监管失职罪的两个难点问题,主张运用监督过失理论认定监督人的预见范围,运用偶然因果关系的理论分析监督人的失职行为与危害结果之间的因果关系。     

A test of stress theory: relief workers in refugee camps

The purpose of this paper is to apply a stress model drawn from the literature to the relief and social service workers who have been active in refugee camps for a prolonged period of time. Working in difficult environments, social service workers deliver essential services to refugee populations around the world. A model of four work-stress determinants--tasks, management, appreciation and collaboration--was tested on 274 social workers in five regions of the Middle East (Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the occupied Palestinian territories of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank). Statistical fit indices were adequate but two relationships were statistically insignificant. The collaboration variable was dropped to create a modified model with tasks indirectly and management and appreciation directly affecting work-related stress. The five direct relationships and two indirect relationships of this modified model are consistent with stress theory, and all relationships--direct and indirect--are statistically significant.     

A simple population theory for mutualism by the use of lattice gas model

The population dynamics of species interactions provides valuable information for life sciences. Lotka-Volterra equations (LVEs) are known to be the most popular model, and they are mainly applied to the systems of predation and competition. However, LVEs often fail to catch the population dynamics of mutualism; the population sizes of species increase infinitely under certain condition (divergence problem). Furthermore, LVEs never predicts the Allee effect in the systems of obligate mutualism. Instead of LVEs, several models have been presented for mutualism; unfortunately, they are rather complicated. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce a simpler theory for mutualism. In the present paper, we apply the lattice gas model which corresponds to the mean-field theory of the usual lattice model. The derived equations are cubic and contain only essential features for mutualism. In the case of obligate mutualism, the dynamics exhibits the Allee effect, and it is almost the same as in the male-female systems. In our model, the population sizes never increase infinitely, because our model contains not only intra- but also interspecific competitions. If the density of one species increases disproportionately in respect of its mutual partners, then this might imply downward pressure on the population abundance of the mutual partner species and such feedback would eventually act as a controlling influence on the population abundance of either species. We discuss several assumptions in our model; in particular, if both species can occupy in each cell simultaneously, then the interspecific competition disappears.     

Estimation of pasture infectivity according to weather conditions through a fuzzy parametrized model for the free-living stage of Ostertagia ostertagi

Gastrointestinal parasitism is one of the diseases that has the highest economic impact on the Argentinian beef production system, rendering it inefficient. In the region of the Humid Pampas, it has been estimated that 22 million dollars are lost annually because of the death of calves and 170 million dollars are lost in sub-clinic costs. A mathematical model with fuzzy parameters was constructed for the analysis of the free-living stages of gastrointestinal parasites, with the purpose of estimating the pool of L3 larvae available for migration to pasture and the levels of infection in pasture at any time of the year under different climatic conditions. The model is formulated in terms of a system of three difference equations. These equations describe the abundance of parasites in each of the successive stages of the population development. The model was calibrated and tested with data gathered through fieldwork carried out in Tandil (37°19′S, 59°08′05″W), province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) and the corresponding weather data. A comparison between model simulations and fieldwork data obtained in other locations achieved satisfactory results.     

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.     

Human factors applied to alarm panel modernization of nuclear control room

Human factors deal with issues related to humans, their behavior and the physical aspect of the environment in which they work. A control room is a complex system where operators perform plant operation using control systems and carry out monitoring and administrative responsibilities. For safe operation of industrial installation, the performance of the control room crew plays an important role. In this respect, a well designed control room is crucial for safe and efficient operation. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodological framework applied to nuclear control room evaluation, through participatory ergonomics, using operator activity analysis and human factors questionnaire as aid tools. We describe a case study in which the methodology framework was used in the evaluation process of a nuclear control room. The information gathered made possible a series of recommendation for the adequacy of the control room design, assisting in the safety assessment of the nuclear plant operation and justifying the alarm panel modernization.     

集装箱岸桥安全操作中信息处理建模及分析

为研究集装箱岸桥(QC)装卸作业安全操作机理,利用信息论的理论和方法对岸桥信息处理与传递进行建模和计算。首先总结集装箱装卸作业流程的11个作业环节,以人脑为信道,利用通信系统模型建立岸桥司机装卸作业各环节的信息传输转换模型。基于甘特图思想,建立整个装卸作业流程的刺激-反应流程图;并计算作为刺激的各信息源事件的信息量I(xi),信源熵H(X)和信息传递量HT。根据描述性模型和定量计算结果,对各作业环节提出有针对性的事故预防措施。