基于可信性理论的水资源优化配置模型

针对城市水资源与水环境系统中存在的不确定性与复杂性,提出了模糊环境下基于可信性理论的CFCCP模型(可信性模糊机会约束规划模型),并将其应用于衡水市水资源优化配置模型的研究中. CFCCP模型以衡水市经济、社会与环境效益最大化为目标,以供需水量、区域协调发展等为不确定性约束,以各水源在各子区不同部门间的分配为决策变量,并且设计了基于模糊模拟的猴群算法进行求解. CFCCP模型可反映不确定性因素对系统收益的影响,计算了各规划水平年置信水平为08时的水资源配置风险-收益权衡方案,得到2015年和2025年的区域经济效益分别为198 36530×104和266 22730×104元,缺水量分别为25 29936×104和20 99096×104 m3,污染物排放量分别为12 80847和13 00044 t. 同时,通过与传统优化算法的比较,证明了基于模糊模拟的猴群算法在求解多维优化问题时的有效性.      

班组长领导方式对矿工安全行为的影响 效用研究—基于调整焦点理论*

围绕班组长领导方式和矿工安全行为的内涵,通过文献分析与因子分析,剖析出班组长领导主要包含领导魅力、鼓励性激励、智力激发、个性化关怀、权变性奖励、积极例外管理和消极例外管理七种方式,矿工安全行为主要包含安全遵守与参与一种方式。以班组长七种领导方式为外在潜变量,矿工安全行为一种方式为内在潜变量,基于调整焦点理论下构建班组长领导方式对矿工安全行为的影响效用模型。运用SPASS17.0和AMOS7.0软件,探析班组长各领导方式对矿工安全行为的作用路径及其影响,从而为煤矿安全管理提出新思路。     

基于重整化群理论的采空区煤柱群临界失稳概率研究

为对房柱式采空区煤柱群安全稳定性进行客观评价,以概率分析为手段结合重整化群理论,深入研究了煤柱个体与相邻煤柱之间的荷载传递规律及煤柱群-顶板系统临界稳定性。得出结论:重整化群理论可适用于采空区煤柱群稳定性分析,确定煤柱群临界概率范围为0.147≤p*≤0.333;煤柱失稳荷载传递过程中的损失程度可用荷载传递系数α衡量,临界破坏概率p*随着荷载传递系数α的增加而递减;针对不同工况,需通过试验或现场实测获得传递系数α,才能准确的确定煤柱临界概率p*。     

火灾后既有结构混凝土损伤评估的突变模型

为了充分考虑火灾后混凝土损伤的多种控制因素,简便而可靠的混凝土损伤综合评估方法,选取抗压强度、耐久性、爆裂和裂纹等4个损失系数为评价指标,采用突变理论的归一化公式和突变原则,构建火灾后混凝土损伤综合评估的突变模型,并予以工程实例分析。结果表明:该方法与模糊综合法、投影寻踪法、分形插值法、属性识别法、可拓物元法的评价结果具有较好的一致性,评价结果客观准确,是一种简单实用的火灾后混凝土损伤综合评估新方法。     

基于Fuzzy模型的职业病危害综合风险评估方法研究

为有效评估作业场所职业病危害的风险大小,研究职业病危害综合风险评估方法。在综合考虑作业场所职业病危害的固有危害特征、接触特征、防护特征和健康影响特征等风险影响因素的基础上,采用层次分析和专家咨询法筛选和建立了职业病危害综合风险评价指标体系,研究制定了各评价指标的分级评价准则,利用模糊数学理论,构建了基于Fuzzy模型的职业病危害综合风险评价模型。该方法可以对职业病危害的综合风险进行评估,并能够确定风险控制的优先权,避免了传统单一指标评价的局限性,对职业病危害评价工作具有一定借鉴意义。     

资源产权与道德的起源:演化博弈论的诠释

论文在一个演化经济学视角下考察资源产权和道德(以下简称为产权和道德)自生自发问题。首先,简略地梳理了产权生发研究的历史;介绍了应用博弈论,特别是演化博弈论研究产权生发问题的近况,并指出其不足之处在于博弈支付的社会经济学含义模糊和无法揭示行为博弈与博弈环境相互作用、共同演化的过程。其次,扩展了生物遗传学中适应度的概念,使其适于社会演化分析;分析了社会经济学适应度的构成及其与竞争类型的关系。第三,为了说明行为博弈与博弈环境之间的相互作用关系,在传统复制者动态方程组中,引入状态方程(或组)。第四,采用改进后的复制者动态方程组分析产权和道德自生自发的机理和过程,指出产权和道德都是人类无节制争斗和无约束生育的产物。最后,分析了洛克社会的三大不足,及其继续演化的动力。     

Chaos and complexity in development

SUMMARY

The paper outlines some main features of chaos theory. Examples of chaotic systems in society and the environment are given. Spontaneous interaction of components, without being planned or directed, is known as ‘self-organising behaviour’. Chaos is an essential aspect of this self organisation, occurring in many forms. A chaotic system is defined as one that shows sensitivity to initial conditions. If the errors relative to the initial conditions become too great, the system will eventually collapse. Development projects are sensitive to such initial conditions. In particular, two examples in development are outlined in some detail and commented upon. One is the occurrence of a project promoting self-organising systems among the poorest of the poor. The other outlines how rehabilitation after resettlement in a power project has transgressed the ‘edge of chaos’ socio-emotionally, in spite of the socioeconomic development being good.     

Handling and updating uncertain information in bow-tie analysis

Bow-tie analysis is a fairly new concept in risk assessment that can describe the relationships among different risk control parameters, such as causes, hazards and consequences to mitigate the likelihood of occurrence of unwanted events in an industrial system. It also facilitates the performance of quantitative risk analysis for an unwanted event providing a detailed investigation starting from basic causes to final consequences. The credibility of quantitative evaluation of the bow-tie is still a major concern since uncertainty, due to limited or missing data, often restricts the performance of analysis. The utilization of expert knowledge often provides an alternative for such a situation. However, it comes at the cost of possible uncertainties related to incompleteness (partial ignorance), imprecision (subjectivity), and lack of consensus (if multiple expert judgments are used). Further, if the bow-tie analysis is not flexible enough to incorporate new knowledge or evidence, it may undermine the purpose of risk assessment.Fuzzy set and evidence theory are capable of characterizing the uncertainty associated with expert knowledge. To minimize the overall uncertainty, fusing the knowledge of multiple experts and updating prior knowledge with new evidence are equally important in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the uncertainties, aggregate knowledge and update prior knowledge or evidence, if new data become available for the bow-tie analysis. A case study comprising a bow-tie for a typical offshore process facility has also been developed to describe the utility of this methodology in an industrial environment.     

事故致因理论:缺陷塔模型

为建立新的事故模型,首先以马克思主义的唯物辩证法为指导,针对事故内因、外因确定5对连锁因果关系,引入生产、事故、物质、能量、作业场所、安全管理、企业、政府和社会等安全要素,与故障树分析方法密切结合,建立缺陷塔模型(FTM)。然后,借鉴计算机科学面向对象编程的理念,定义塔体、塔段、塔壁、缺陷缝、管道、阀门共6种对象,规定了对象的主要属性,实现模型的三维可视化。