赣南桃江河表层沉积物钨赋存特征及风险分析

选择赣南桃江河表层沉积物为研究对象,采用改进的BCR提取法分析桃江上、中、下游及支流表层沉积物中钨的含量及赋存形态,并利用富集系数法（EF）和风险指数编码法（RAC）对桃江河表层沉积物中钨的富集程度与环境风险进行评价.结果表明,桃江河表层沉积物钨的总量范围为1.21~39.73mg/kg,均值为18.21mg/kg.研究区域58%的采样点沉积物中钨总量高于江西省土壤重金属背景值;桃江河沉积物中钨的主要赋存形态是残渣态（B4态）,沉积物中各形态钨占总钨的比例大小顺序为残渣态 > 可氧化态 > 可还原态 > 弱酸提取态,空间上有效态钨占总钨的比例大小为支流 > 下游 > 上游 > 中游,平均比例分别为22.44%、21.03%、14.45%及10.91%.相关性分析显示,pH值和阳离子交换与钨的各形态及总量呈正相关.EF法分析表明桃江河上游与支流沉积物中钨富集严重;RAC法分析结果显示采样点沉积物中钨含量呈低、中、高生态风险占比分别为33.33%、46.67%、17.78%.上述结果表明,桃江河表层沉积物钨富集程度及环境风险较严重,应引起重视并开展深入研究.     

Identifying crash type propensity using real-time traffic data on freeways

Introduction: We examine the effects of various traffic parameters on type of road crash. Method: Multivariate probit models are specified on 4-years of data from the A4-A86 highway section in the Ile-de-France region, France. Results: Empirical findings indicate that crash type can almost exclusively be defined by the prevailing traffic conditions shortly before its occurrence. Rear-end crashes involving two vehicles were found to be more probable for relatively low values of both speed and density, rear-end crashes involving more than two vehicles appear to be more probable under congested conditions, while single-vehicle crashes appear to be largely geometry-dependent. Impact on Industry: Results could be integrated in a real-time traffic management application.     

季节调整分析在城市火灾发生规律研究中的应用

利用样本周期图法定量分析了城市火灾序列的周期性,并实例分析得出了北京市火灾时间序列具有12个月和48个月的周期性。然后采用季节调整法,将火灾时间序列中的季节因子和不规则因子提取出来,得出了经季节调整后的时间序列,从而得到了北京市火灾发生受季节因素影响的大小和城市火灾时间序列的基本发展趋势,大大提高了火灾数据之间的可比性。同时结论可为消防管理部门有针对性地采取消防监督管理措施和科学地安排消防执勤战备提供有力指导。     

厦门市酸雨分布特征与气象条件的关系分析

厦门市是我国酸雨控制区之一。文章利用1992～2005年厦门市的探空、降水量和酸雨资料来分析厦门市不同气象条件对降水酸度、酸雨出现率的影响,分析结果表明:(1)不同等级的降水对降水酸度和酸雨出现率有明显影响,相对于夏、秋二季,冬、春二季的降水酸度更酸,酸雨出现率更高。(2)K指数、850～700hPa层的冷暖平流对酸雨污染没有明显影响。(3)酸雨出现率随着1500m高空风速的增大而增多,风向变化对降水酸度和酸雨出现机率的影响不大。(4)逆温对酸雨污染的有一定的影响。     

Culpable versus non-culpable traffic accidents; what is wrong with this picture?

INTRODUCTION: It is often implicitly or explicitly assumed in traffic accident research that drivers with accidents designated as non-culpable are a random sample from the population. However, this assumption is dependent upon differences in the criterion used for culpability. If drivers are erroneously categorized by assuming randomness, results could be grossly misleading. METHOD: The assumption of randomness leads to two predictions: first, no correlation should exist between culpable and non-culpable crashes; and second, the accident groups should differ on the variables known to be associated with accidents, such as amount of driving experience. These predictions were tested in two samples of bus drivers. RESULTS: It was found that in a sample with a harsh criterion (70% culpable accidents) for crash responsibility, the drivers with non-culpable accidents had the features expected, namely, they were more experienced for example, while in a sample with a lenient criterion (50 % culpable), this was not so. DISCUSSION: It was concluded that similar studies to the present one would need to be undertaken to establish exactly what percentage of drivers in a given population should be assigned culpable accidents, and construct a criterion that yields this ratio. Otherwise, the theoretical assumptions of randomness and non-responsibility will probably be violated to some degree. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Many estimates of risk of crash involvement may have been wrong. Given the potential for erroneous criteria, a number of studies may make invalid assumptions from their data.     

骆马湖表层水和沉积物中全氟化合物赋存特征、来源及健康风险评估

通过对骆马湖表层水和沉积物的调查检测,分析了两类介质中全氟化合物（PFASs）的组分结构和赋存特征,并运用主成分分析法对表层水中此类物质的来源进行了解析,运用风险商法评估了此类物质的潜在健康风险,结果表明,骆马湖表层沉积物中总计检出14种PFASs,而其表层水中较之前者多检出1种（PFTeA）;表层水中■范围为46.09～120.34ng·L^-1,沉积物中■范围为2.22～9.55ng·g^-1;表层水中质量分数最高的为PFPeA,为38%,沉积物中质量分数最高的为PFBA,为61%,骆马湖多介质中PFASs组分均以短链物质为主;骆马湖表层水中PFASs的高浓度区域集中分布在北部河流入湖口,其浓度呈现由北向南递减的趋势,沉积物中PFASs的高含量区域则向南迁移;骆马湖沉积物中的∑PFASs、 PFBA和PFOS的分布情况与沉积物中TOC含量有关;主成分分析表明骆马湖表层水中PFASs主要来自纺织品阻燃、橡胶品的乳化、食品包装过程和纸类表面处理,金属电镀行业,皮革和纺织品制造行业;骆马湖表层水中PFASs处于较低健康风险水平.     

建筑工人不安全行为发生机理研究

为梳理建筑工人不安全行为发生机理,对相关文献资料进行分析,基于建筑工人个体视角确定相关影响因素并构建不安全行为发生机理理论模型。结合现场访谈对模型进行修正后,采用结构方程模型处理问卷数据并对假设进行验证,最终确定建筑工人不安全行为发生机理。结果显示:安全认知与安全能力对建筑工人不安全行为影响关系显著,安全意识对建筑工人不安全行为影响关系不显著,且安全能力的影响程度要高于安全认知。     

溴代二恶英类的来源、检测与污染现状

多溴二苯并-对-二恶英和多溴二苯并呋喃(PBDD/Fs)具有与多氯二苯并-对-二恶英和多氯二苯并呋喃(PCDD/Fs)相似的结构和毒性,广泛存在于多种环境介质和生物体中,已经引起了广泛的关注.本文讨论了溴代阻燃剂(BFRs)生产和处理、电子垃圾拆解和热处理、垃圾焚烧和金属冶炼等工业热过程中PBDD/Fs排放水平及生成机制.其中,PBDD/Fs在BFRs产品中的含量较高,范围为0.257—49.605μg.g-1,在电子垃圾热解处理中气相和固相的含量分别可达到57 ng TEQ.kg-1和19000 ng TEQ.kg-1,而在冶金过程烟道气中的含量范围是0.14—1.5 ng TEQ.m-3.本文还总结了PBDD/F分析方法研究进展,包括样品前处理和仪器分析方法,提出了目前影响准确定量PBDD/Fs的因素以及相关的解决措施.归纳了当前环境介质和生物体及食品中PBDD/Fs的存在水平,指出电子垃圾热处理、垃圾焚烧等工业热过程已导致周边环境和生物体内PBDD/Fs的浓度增高.最后,介绍了国外与PBDD/Fs相关的控制措施和政策法规.     

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.