Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science,Climate Policy,Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

We report the results of an exploratory study that examines the judgments of climate scientists, climate policy experts, astrophysicists, and non-experts (N?=?3367) about the factors that contribute to the creation and persistence of disagreement within climate science and astrophysics and about how one should respond to expert disagreement. We found that, as compared to non-experts, climate experts believe that within climate science (i) there is less disagreement about climate change, (ii) methodological factors play less of a role in generating disagreements, (iii) fewer personal or institutional biases influence climate research, and (iv) there is more agreement about which methods should be used to examine relevant phenomena we also observed that the uniquely American political context predicted experts’ judgments about some of these factors. We also found that, in regard to disagreements concerning cosmic ray physics, and commensurate with the greater inherent uncertainty and data lacunae in their field, astrophysicists working on cosmic rays were generally more willing to acknowledge expert disagreement, more open to the idea that a set of data can have multiple valid interpretations, and generally less quick to dismiss someone articulating a non-standard view as non-expert, than climate scientists were in regard to climate science.     

一种基于数据融合的林火火线动态蔓延预测方法的研究

准确预测林火蔓延对于有效防治野火危害具有重要意义。传统林火蔓延速度场经验模型需要可燃物特性、坡度、温度及湿度等众多实测参数,由于参数均具有不同的时空分布,限制了模型的实际应用。因此提出速度场实时测量及水平集法模拟林火蔓延两种技术相结合的方法,通过测定火蔓延锋面的位置获取当前时刻锋面处的速度场分布并对此速度场在未燃烧区域进行延拓,结合水平集法预测林火蔓延,并使用数值模拟及实验数据验证了该方法能够有效预测短期内林火蔓延趋势,得出基于速度场的数据融合方法可满足实际林火蔓延建模的需求。     

Climate Change and Energy Technologies in Undergraduate Introductory Science Textbooks

Global climate change and the implementation of energy technologies are among the most pressing issues facing society and the environment today. Related educational content spans the science disciplines. Through an analysis of introductory-level university textbooks from four major US publishers in Biology, Chemistry, and Physics, this study presents trends in terminology and content. As the defining terms, “global warming” and “climate change” are used nearly equally. However, the first location of a working definition for climate change appears earlier. Energy technologies, climate change, and related environmental issues are found, on average, on ≤4% of textbook pages, and variation is large among individual textbooks. Discipline-based trends exist, especially for the energy technologies presented. Addressed separately as a non-renewable, non-fossil fuel, nuclear energy is found on ≤1% of textbook pages and unfavorably represented. The discussion within these science disciplines has implications on introductory-level education, public perception of science, and informed citizenship.     

Tipping Points and Climate Change: Metaphor Between Science and the Media

Over the past decade, scientists and journalists have prominently utilized the metaphor of a tipping point for drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change. This paper shows how the tipping point metaphor became a multi-purpose bridge between science and the news media, describing how its meaning and use developed and diversified in interaction between these two domains. Within the scientific domain, the metaphor developed from a rhetorical device conveying a warning of drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change to a theoretical concept driving empirical research. The news media soon picked up the tipping point metaphor for abrupt and dangerous climate change, turning it into a common part of the journalistic lexicon. Moreover, both science and the news media developed another, societal use of the tipping point metaphor, calling for radical societal change to avoid climate change catastrophe. The tipping point metaphor is hence not a monolithic notion but a highly versatile concept and expression, allowing it to be used for various communicative purposes by distinct stakeholders in different contexts.     

Risk and Responsibility in Public Engagement by Climate Scientists: Reconsidering Advocacy During the Trump Era

The election as US President of Donald J Trump, who denies the scientific consensus on climate change, raises questions about the role of scientists in public discourse. How far should scientists wade into the waters of advocacy before risking their credibility of fair arbiters of knowledge? The new study by Kotcher, Myers, Vraga, Stenhouse, and Maibach [2017. Does engagement in advocacy hurt the credibility of scientists? Results from a randomized national survey experiment. Environmental Communication. doi:10.1080/17524032.2016.1275736] is a reminder that scientists are among the most trusted people in public life and have some freedom to engage publicly without harming their reputation. However, with the power to influence public debate comes the responsibility to carefully consider the impact of statements and actions. This commentary discusses the challenges facing scientists at a time of great potential for public engagement, and for a gap between perceived and actual intent of public statements.     

The legacy of lead pollution: (dis)trust in science and the debate over Superfund

Lead contamination is a significant health hazard in communities around the world, but this environmental toxin often remains unknown to residents living near hazardous sites. This research investigates a unique case where residents were informed of lead contamination but rejected official and scientific narratives regarding environmental risks. The case study involves a decommissioned smelter in Colorado. Drawing from data collected over three years, the researchers examine how officials and experts communicated the severity of environmental health hazards. Despite these efforts, residents opposed the Environmental Protection Agency’s attempts to place the site on the National Priorities List for federal cleanup. The government’s framing of science and environmental risk failed to resonate with homeowners, despite the known and significant scientific evidence confirming environmental health hazards, and residents’ perceptions of lead contamination were mitigated by material concerns, including property values and community stigma. Implications for future research on lead contamination, environmental risk, and trust in science are discussed.     

Are all experiments created equal? A framework for analysis of the learning potential of policy experiments in environmental governance

Environmental changes are increasing the need to understand complex cross-scale feedbacks in social–ecological systems. However, consistent conceptualisation of learning associated with environmental governance is lacking, and research mainly centres on individual variables. This paper identifies a typology of such learning, and theorises about configurations of variables. Focusing on experimentation as an intervention geared towards learning, it proposes a definition of policy experiment. A theoretical framework is presented, summarising a typology of experiments based on learning-related variables embedded in design choices, and reflected in institutional rule aggregations. The framework facilitates systematic analysis of real-world cases and testing of hypotheses on the effects of different types of experiment on learning. A case study demonstrates application of the framework. Results suggest future research paths that include attention to additional relevant variables. The findings have relevance for scholars interested in experimentation and learning, and environmental policy-makers considering experimentation to assess policy innovations.     

Young adult conservation jobs and worker health

Decades of research studies demonstrate links between healthy environment, healthy lifestyles, and healthy people. This study evaluated the correlations between young adult conservation workers' perceived stress, personal effectiveness, and nature experience using quantitative and qualitative social science methods. The study cohort numbered nearly 300 individuals serving on small crews for an entire year, and were dispersed across Washington State (USA) to participate in conservation projects in rural to urban landscapes. Pre- and post-test surveys, using validated measures of perceived stress, health dimensions, and personal resiliency, were further informed by mid-year, field-based interviews. Overall, the young adults expressed fatigue with the physical work but were quite healthy when compared to national benchmarks. They indicated a reduction in perceived stress, and indicated social function influences based on the conservation work. Conclusions address the importance and implications of expanding this work opportunity to a more diverse cohort and future research needs.     

Data Management Dimensions of Social Water Science: The iUTAH Experience

Integrating social and hydrologic sciences for understanding water systems is challenged by data management complexities. Contemporary mandates for open science and data sharing necessitate better understanding of the implications of social science data types. In the context of an interdisciplinary water research program that endeavors to integrate and share social science and biophysical data, we highlight the array of data types and issues associated with social water science. We present a multi‐dimensional classification of social water science data that provides insight into data management considerations for each data type. Recommendations for cyberinfrastructure, planning, and policy are offered.     

Using citizen science in environmental justice: participation and decision-making in a Southern California waste facility siting conflict

Uses of science by environmental justice (EJ) activists reflect struggles to challenge professional scientific expertise, achieve fair outcomes, and effectively participate in decision-making processes. This qualitative research analyses the relationship between citizen science and EJ in a new waste facility siting conflict in urban Los Angeles, namely connections between citizen science and four dimensions of EJ: fair distribution, respect and recognition, participation in decision-making, and community capabilities. Citizen science is one tactic in EJ, yet little research investigates its role in a new facility siting conflict, particularly in relation to multi-faceted EJ goals. The research reveals opportunities for individual empowerment and community capacity building using citizen science, and a small measure of improved respect and recognition for participants who brought their own knowledge, research, and voices to the table. At the same time, the work identifies limitations on citizen science to improve local participatory procedures and decision-making, which also constricted the achievement of outcomes most desired by the EJ group: to prevent approval and construction of the new waste facility. This paper argues that uses of citizen science contributed to partial achievement of EJ goals, while hindered by governance processes that call for public participation yet shield decision-makers from substantive engagement with the volume or content of that participation.