Measuring mate choice using correlation: the effect of female sampling behaviour

For intersexual selection to occur, it is necessary that females choose between males. It is now well appreciated that constraints exist, which preclude females sampling all the available males in a population. These constraints are likely to have caused the evolution of sampling rules (such as the “best-of-n” rule) by which females sample males. Here we investigate the impact of female subsampling of the male population, not on the evolution of sampling behaviour, but on the population-level correlation between a male trait and currencies such as reproductive success. This study is important as it illustrates when population-level correlations can be safely used to infer the presence and strength of sexual selection in the field. We find that the correlation between a male trait and a mate choice variable rises steeply as the number of males sampled by each female increases, flattening above seven to ten males sampled. This shape is found to be remarkably robust, and little affected by, for example, the mate choice variable used, by noise in assessment, by sampling behaviour depending on female quality, or by population size. The only variable found to have a large impact is male clumping according to their “quality”. If females are sampling about four males, the maximum correlation that can be found at the population level is in the range 0.4–0.6, perhaps as little as 0.1 if males are strongly clumped. A recent review of the literature suggests that four is the average number of males that females sample. Thus, the absence of a strong correlation cannot by itself be used to infer that sexual selection is weak, as it may be due to females sampling few males. Received: 18 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 18 July 1998     

Resource frontiers and agglomeration economies: The varied logics of transnational land-based investing in Southern and Eastern Africa

Actor-level data on large-scale commercial agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. The peculiar choice of transnational investing in African land has, therefore, been subject to conjecture. Addressing this gap, we reconstructed the underlying logics of investment location choices in a Bayesian network, using firm- and actor-level interview and spatial data from 37 transnational agriculture and forestry investments across 121 sites in Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. We distinguish four investment locations across gradients of resource frontiers and agglomeration economies to derive the preferred locations of different investors with varied skillsets and market reach (i.e., track record). In contrast to newcomers, investors with extensive track records are more likely to expand the land use frontier, but they are also likely to survive the high transaction costs of the pre-commercial frontier. We highlight key comparative advantages of Southern and Eastern African frontiers and map the most probable categories of investment locations.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01682-z.     

Assessment and mapping of environmental quality in agricultural soils of Zhejiang Province, China

Heavy metal concentrations in agricultural soils of Zhejiang Province were monitored to indicate the status of heavy metal contamination and assess environmental quality of agricultural soils. A total of 908 soil samples were collected from 38 counties in Zbejiang Province and eight heavy metal （Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg, Cu, Zn, Ni and As） concentrations had been evaluated in agricultural soil. It was found 775 samples were unpolluted and 133 samples were slightly polluted and more respectively, that is approximately 14.65% agricultural soil samples had the heavy metal concentration above the threshold level in this province by means of Nemerow＇s synthetical pollution index method according to the second grade of Standards for Soil Environmental Quality of China （GB15618- 1995）. Contamination of Cd was the highest, followed by Ni, As and Zn were lower correspondingly. Moreover, Inverse Distance Weighted （IDW） interpolation method was used to make an assessment map of soil environmental quality based on the Nemerow＇s pollution index and the soil environmental quality was categorized into five grades. Moreover, ten indices were calculated as input parameters for principal component analysis （PCA） and the principal components （PCs） were created to compare environmental quality of different soils and regions. The results revealed that environmental quality of tea soils was better than that of paddy soils, vegetable soils and fruit soils. This study indicated that GIS combined with multivariate statistical approaches proved to be effective and powerful tool in the mapping of soil contamination distribution and the assessment of soil environmental quality on provincial scale, which is beneficial to environmental protection and management decision-making by local government.     

基于响应面模型的区域大气污染控制辅助决策工具研发

基于CMAQ模型结果,利用高维克里金插值算法,建立了排放控制因子与污染物环境浓度的响应面模型(RSM),实现了大气污染可控源排放与复合污染水平的实时函数响应.研究结果显示,RSM对PM2.5的预测结果与CMAQ实际模拟结果的误差在容许范围内(最大误差小于0.20μg.m-3,3.89%).基于所建立的RSM,开发了RSM-VAT区域大气污染控制可视化辅助决策工具.使用RSM-VAT对美国8个典型城市的PM2.5污染状况进行了控制情景分析,通过"可视化展示"和"图表分析"二大模块,输出不同控制情景下的环境污染物浓度的实时响应图、可视化展示和数据分析图表等结果.     

SWAT模型在三峡库区流域非点源污染模拟的适用性研究

将SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型应用于库区大尺度流域的污染模拟研究,对其进行适用性评价及模拟应用分析。模型校验采用的是2002—2008年的水文月数据及水质水期数据,径流模拟效果最好,评价指标ENS(Nash-Suttclife Efficiency)均在0.9以上;泥沙模拟评价指标ENS在0.46~0.9;营养盐模拟评价指标ENS个别出现了<0.36的情况,但总体模拟效果满足要求。应用SWAT模型对库区降水与地表产流、产沙、营养盐负荷进行了研究。结果表明:库区地表产流与降水的相关性趋势最好;地表产沙与产流、降水的总体趋势一致,但偶尔出现4、5月份地表产沙先于产流出现峰值的情况,这可能是由于春耕对地表扰动后又逢较强降水引起的水土流失;营养盐污染负荷尤其是TP的峰值趋势与地表产流相比,更接近地表产沙趋势。本文还对库区不同土地利用类型的污染负荷做了分析,得到各类土地利用类型的年均污染负荷总量排序及单位面积污染负荷,再次验证了SWAT模型在三峡库区流域的适用性。根据分析结果,库区耕地为非点源污染产出的主要源头,可将耕地耕种措施转变及土地利用类型转换作为库区非点源污染削减的重要手段。     

空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE研发

为了评估空气污染带来的健康冲击、评估健康效益,克服现有评估工具(BenMAP V4.0)计算速度缓慢及用户体验较差等问题,受美国环保署委托,设计并研发了新一代空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE,搭建了BenMAP CE的框架,进行了详细功能设计,并利用美国环保署提供的数据进行了实测.测试结果表明,基于相同的输入文件和设置,BenMAP CE能重现BenMAP V4.0的计算结果,相比现有的评估工具,BenMAP CE具有良好的用户体验、强大的GIS展示功能及大幅提高的计算速度.BenMAP CE是考虑了污染物环境浓度削减、人口密度、收入差异等经济因素的综合性评估工具,能为决策者评估空气污染控制措施所带来的健康效益提供辅助决策依据.     

基于数据库的农业非点源污染最佳管理措施效率评估工具构建

针对流域非点源污染的关键源区,配置最佳管理措施（BMPs,Best Management Practices）是非点源污染控制的有效途径.然而,受限于研究成本和不同地区自然地理条件的差异性,通过实地监测对BMPs削减效率进行评估的研究案例还不多见.多数相关研究仅关注单一类型BMPs的效率评估,使得研究成果仅仅适用于某些特定区域.对BMPs的潜在效益进行评估,可通过收集不同区域内BMPs的削减效率信息来实现.本文采用基于文献的BMPs效率评估方法,通过整理国内154篇关于BMPs研究的文献信息,建立适用于农业流域非点源污染控制的BMPs数据库.在此基础上,采用VBA（Visual Basic for Applications）和SQL（Structured Query Language）程序语言构建BMPs削减效率评估工具箱.该工具箱适用于非点源污染控制措施削减效率的评估,能够根据不同研究区特征,给出目标BMPs的污染负荷削减量,从而为BMPs的优选提供定量依据.以密云水库上游蛇鱼川小流域为案例研究区,根据该流域的非点源污染特征,对拟采用的BMPs进行评估,结果表明：草型植物篱、25 m河岸缓冲带、河岸带畜禽活动护栏以及集中放牧等措施控制效率最高.     

环境决策支持系统研究进展

叙述了环境决策支持系统（Ｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔ Ｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ Ｓｕｐｐｏｒｔ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍ－ＥＤＳＳ）的概念。通过对ＥＤＳＳ专著及实际应用于水质规划与管理。大气环境质量管理,环境影响评价等决策支持系统的介绍和评价,阐明了国我在ＥＤＳＳ领域的研究进展和我国在这一领域的研究成果。最后对ＥＤＳＳ的研究提出了若干建议。     

隐喻机制下的英语一词多义现象

隐喻是人类普遍存在的一种思维方式,也是一词多义现象产生的一个重要因素.英语中的一词多义现象就是人类通过认知手段由一个词的中心意义或基本意义向其它意义的延伸,隐喻认知对多义词的形成起着无可替代的作用,本文就英语的一词多义现象,提出英语教师在教学过程中应当重视培养和提高学生外语学习中的"隐喻能力".     

Long-term variation in surface ozone and its precursors in Athens,Greece

INTENTION, GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Photochemical pollution is a very complex process involving meteorological, topographic, emission and chemical parameters. The most important chemical mechanisms involved in the atmospheric process have already been identified and studied. However, many unknown parameters still exist because of the large number of participating chemical reactions. OBJECTIVE: The present study investigates the processes involved in the photochemical pollution effect of an urban station located in the greater area of the Athens basin and gives a plausible explanation for the different seasonal ozone development between that station and another rural one. Furthermore, the distribution of the mean monthly surface ozone observed at the urban station during 1987-2001 is examined in order to create a relevant forecasting tool. METHODS: Averaged hourly data of O3 and NOx observations monitored at the above mentioned stations, during 1987-2001, have been used in order to derive the daytime (7:00-15:00) values. Trajectories calculated by using a 2D-trajectory code and meteorological data, during the period 1988-1996, have also been used. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: At the urban station, the percentage negative trend of NO and NOx data in winter and summer is higher than that in spring and autumn, while the percentage ozone trend is maximum in the summer. On the contrary, the negative surface ozone trend at the rural station exhibits a minimum in summer and a maximum in autumn and winter. The mean seasonal wind-rose for the selected months shows that the northward wind flow dominates during June, the month of the lowest negative ozone trend in the rural station. Finally, the development of the forecasting tool shows that the mean monthly surface ozone data during the period (1987-2001) demonstrates a semi-log distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Air transport effect on the air pollution of the rural station (not blocked by mountains) is deduced as a possible reason for the different seasonal ozone development observed between the rural and the urban station. Finally, the discrepancies between the theoretical probabilities deduced by the model and the empirical ones appear to be very small, and the corresponding correlation coefficient is 0.99. RECOMMENDATION AND OUTLOOK: However, to interpret the aforementioned statistical results about the negative trends in ozone and its precursors, additional parameters can be taken into account. Changes in NOx concentrations, for instance, can result not only from changes in emissions or meteorological conditions. There might also be a contribution through changes in the atmospheric composition. A study of the contribution of changes in atmospheric composition to trends of observed NOx concentrations requires that a series of steps be taken (removal of meteorological influence in the time series, calculation of trends in OH concentrations, etc.).