基于奖优惩劣的密切值法在污水处理工艺优选中的应用

针对城市污水处理工艺方案优选决策问题,采用了基于奖优惩劣原则的[-1,1]区间线性变化的密切值法决策模型,并介绍了其实现过程.该方法克服了现有的多指标多水平决策模型存在的一些不足,避免了人为主观因素对决策结果的影响,取得了较好的效果,具有较好的应用前景.     

Safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank using fault tree analysis and risk matrix analysis

The work presented in this paper used a quantitative analysis of relevant risks through the development of fault tree analysis and risk analysis methods to aid real time risk prediction and safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank. Criticality of risk elements and their attributes can be used with real time data to predict potential failures likely to occur. As an example, a risk matrix was used to rank risk of events that could lead to a leak in a storage tank and to make decisions on risks to be allowed based on past statistical data. An intelligent system that recognizes increasing level(s) and draws awareness to the possibility of additional increase before unsafe levels are attained was used to analyse and make critical decisions. After a visual depiction of relationships between hazards and controls had been actualized, dynamic risk modelling was used to quantify the effect controls can potentially have on hazards by applying historical and real-time data into a probabilistic model. The output of a dynamic risk model is near real-time quantitative predictions of risk likelihood. Results from the risk matrix analysis method mixed with RTD and FTA were analyzed, evaluated, and compared.     

我国农业减灾风险投资决策的经济学判据

探讨了在我国政策条件下,农业减灾投入、增产投入、农民收入与灾害风险之间的关系。在生产者追求利润最大化目标的经济学假设下,通过对粮食生产过程的定性、定量分析,分别推导了不同投资主体和同一投资主体下农业减灾与增产投资利益最大化的条件,并讨论了农业投资者可能的决策选择,从经济学的角度为研究农业减灾增产的风险投资提供了一种较理想的理论模型。     

Evaluation of design alternatives for sewing scissors with respect to hand performance,discomfort and usability

The effects of three re-designed models of sewing scissors on hand performance measures, discomfort and usability were investigated, and the results were compared with those of conventional scissors. Adjustments were made to the scissors handle with emphasis on more neutral wrist postures (bent handle - model A), correction of the thumb's position and movements (model B) and reducing hand/finger discomfort (model C) while working with the tool. The results showed some improvements in hand performance, muscular effort, usability and discomfort with model B compared to the conventional model. Better hand performance and usability and lower discomfort were recorded with model C compared to the conventional model. The results suggest that the correction of the thumb's position and movement (model B) or even reduced hand/finger discomfort (model C) are perhaps more important considerations in scissors design than improved wrist posture (model A) for improving users' performance and usability of the tool.     

某大型机加车间数控机床减噪工程测试与分析研究

为研究大型机加车间噪声减噪工程现状效果和特点,选取某大型机加车间数控机床为研究对象,对其进行减噪工程治理,现场实测了治理前和治理后的噪声数据,并对噪声测量结果进行分析。研究结果表明:数控机床操作人员8 h连续等效A声级从治理前的89.2 dB(A),降到治理后的74.3 dB(A),降低了16.7%.;数控机床操作岗位位置测点,在加工1个机件的测量时间段里,噪声值从治理前的85.9 dB(A),降到治理后的55.1 dB(A),降低了33.85%;对机加车间现场布置了67个测点,在加工1个机件的测量时间段里进行测量,得到该车间噪声治理前和治理后噪声分布图;对数控机床减噪工程治理前和治理后的频谱进行了分析,得出治理前和治理后各自的最大声级所在频段不随距离的改变而改变,高频减噪效果显著。     

Limitations of current risk assessment methods to foresee emerging risks: Towards a new methodology?

The objective of this work-in-progress is to investigate the potentialities but also the limitations of traditional risks analysis tools especially in the context of emerging technologies and develop a method facilitating the early detection of scenarios of accidents. This is certainly a challenge particularly for new industrial fields since, in this case, very little or no lesson from past accidents is available. It is believed that such situations cannot be conveniently treated using traditional risk assessment methods (HAZOP, FMEA, …) and typical examples are given. The reason is that those methods rely heavily on past accidents and are therefore “trapped” in them so that they are largely “inductive”. In terms of foreseeing the future, the shortcomings of inductive methods are recalled. The possibility to imagine the future with very little clues is then discussed on the ground of theoretical consideration and a way to do so is proposed (abduction, serendipity). Then on the basis of the observation of how the experts work and how discoveries are made, a potential new methodology is outlined.     

Designing regional-level stakeholder engagement processes: striving for good governance while meeting the challenges of scale

Stakeholder engagement processes have sought to ensure that state government meets public trust and good governance obligations to citizens. As the expectations of stakeholders and state agencies change, and management focuses on landscape-level interventions, a change in the level at which agencies engage the public is needed. This involves tradeoffs, as different levels call for different engagement design and implementation considerations. To understand how these differences affect decision making, we examine a regional engagement model for deer management in New York that was piloted to replace a sub-regional model. We identify concerns with the old model, objectives for the redesigned model, and explain the logistical and good governance considerations that informed its design. We share our evaluation of the model's process and outcomes, including implications for program design and scale. Overall, despite the pilot model's attention to design components aimed at addressing potential barriers to regional engagement as well as limitations of the previous engagement model, the pilot did not meet many of its objectives, especially those related to representation, resulting in some of the same concerns associated with the model it was intended to enhance and replace. Implications of this for regional-level engagement efforts are discussed.     

Watershed development in India. 2. New approaches for managing externalities and meeting sustainability requirements

This paper recognises the need for a revision of watershed development policy in India in relation to the planning of development interventions involving agricultural intensification and rainwater harvesting and the need for new approaches to assist the planning process. Building on, and using as an example, the results of biophysical and societal impact studies carried out on two watershed development projects in Karnataka three new management/dissemination tools, are suggested. These are (1) the web-based geographical information systems exploratory, climate land assessment and impact management tool dissemination tool for disseminating to policymakers and non-specialist stakeholders the downstream impacts of watershed interventions, (2) the ‘quadrant’ approach for ensuring that sustainability criteria are met and (3) Bayesian networks to investigate the biophysical and societal impacts of interventions. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

WHIPPET: A novel tool for prioritizing invasive plant populations for regional eradication

Large geographic areas can have numerous incipient invasive plant populations that necessitate eradication. However, resources are often deficient to address every infestation. Within the United States, weed lists (either state-level or smaller unit) generally guide the prioritization of eradication of each listed species uniformly across the focus region. This strategy has several limitations that can compromise overall effectiveness, which include spending limited resources on 1) low impact populations, 2) difficult to access populations, or 3) missing high impact populations of low priority species. Therefore, we developed a novel science-based, transparent, analytical ranking tool to prioritize weed populations, instead of species, for eradication and tested it on a group of noxious weeds in California. For outreach purposes, we named the tool WHIPPET (Weed Heuristics: Invasive Population Prioritization for Eradication Tool). Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process that included expert opinion, we developed three major criteria, four sub-criteria, and four sub-sub-criteria, taking into account both species and population characteristics. Subject matter experts weighted and scored these criteria to assess the relative impact, potential spread, and feasibility of eradication (major criteria) for 100 total populations of 19 species. Species-wide population scores indicated that conspecific populations do not necessarily group together in the final ranked output. Thus, priority lists based solely on species-level characteristics are less effective compared to a blended prioritization based on both species attributes and individual population and site parameters. WHIPPET should facilitate a more efficacious decision-making process allocating limited resources to target invasive plant infestations with the greatest predicted impacts to the region under consideration.