环境决策支持系统的设计技术及发展趋势

简要论述了环境决策支持系统(EDSS)的发展历程,提出了EDSS开发技术的六大构成部分:应用平台的选择;系统的开发方式的选择;系统的开发工具的选择;系统的组成结构的建立;系统的基本功能的设计;系统的开放接口的设计。对系统设计的关键技术进行了分析,依据EDSS的应用现状,指出EDSS的发展趋势,对实际应用具有一定的指导意义和实用价值。     

An environmental pressure index proposal for urban development planning based on the analytic network process

This paper introduces a new approach to prioritize urban planning projects according to their environmental pressure in an efficient and reliable way. It is based on the combination of three procedures: (i) the use of environmental pressure indicators, (ii) the aggregation of the indicators in an Environmental Pressure Index by means of the Analytic Network Process method (ANP) and (iii) the interpretation of the information obtained from the experts during the decision-making process.The method has been applied to a proposal for urban development of La Carlota airport in Caracas (Venezuela). There are three options which are currently under evaluation. They include a Health Club, a Residential Area and a Theme Park. After a selection process the experts chose the following environmental pressure indicators as ANP criteria for the project life cycle: used land area, population density, energy consumption, water consumption and waste generation. By using goal-oriented questionnaires designed by the authors, the experts determined the importance of the criteria, the relationships among criteria, and the relationships between the criteria and the urban development alternatives.The resulting data showed that water consumption is the most important environmental pressure factor, and the Theme Park project is by far the urban development alternative which exerts the least environmental pressure on the area. The participating experts coincided in appreciating the technique proposed in this paper is useful and, for ranking ordering these alternatives, an improvement from traditional techniques such as environmental impact studies, life-cycle analysis, etc.     

Customisation of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS for applications to the marine environment

The present short communication describes a technique to customise the decision system MOIRA-PLUS for applications to the marine environment. MOIRA-PLUS was originally designed to predict the behaviour of ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr in fresh water ecosystems and to evaluate the environmental, social and economic impacts of selected countermeasures aimed at restoring the polluted environment and at reducing the doses to man. An example of application for predicting the concentration of radiocaesium of Chernobyl origin in the Mediterranean Sea is described and discussed. The technique allows the user to easily integrate existing state-of-the-art box models of sea water circulation into the MOIRA-PLUS decision system.     

A web-based Decision Support System for the optimal management of construction and demolition waste

Wastes from construction activities constitute nowadays the largest by quantity fraction of solid wastes in urban areas. In addition, it is widely accepted that the particular waste stream contains hazardous materials, such as insulating materials, plastic frames of doors, windows, etc. Their uncontrolled disposal result to long-term pollution costs, resource overuse and wasted energy. Within the framework of the DEWAM project, a web-based Decision Support System (DSS) application - namely DeconRCM - has been developed, aiming towards the identification of the optimal construction and demolition waste (CDW) management strategy that minimises end-of-life costs and maximises the recovery of salvaged building materials. This paper addresses both technical and functional structure of the developed web-based application. The web-based DSS provides an accurate estimation of the generated CDW quantities of twenty-one different waste streams (e.g. concrete, bricks, glass, etc.) for four different types of buildings (residential, office, commercial and industrial). With the use of mathematical programming, the DeconRCM provides also the user with the optimal end-of-life management alternative, taking into consideration both economic and environmental criteria. The DSS's capabilities are illustrated through a real world case study of a typical five floor apartment building in Thessaloniki, Greece.     

Screening and selection of sites for CO2 sequestration based on pressure buildup

This paper presents a simple methodology for estimating pressure pressure buildup due to the injection of supercritical CO₂into a saline formation, and the limiting pressure at which the formation starts to fracture. Pressure buildup is calculated using the approximate solution of Mathias et al. [Mathias, S.A., Hardisty, P.E., Trudell, M.R., Zimmerman, R.W., 2009. Approximate solutions for pressure buildup during CO₂ injection in brine aquifers. Transp. Porous Media. doi:10.1007/s11242-008-9316-7], which accounts for two-phase Forchheimer flow (of supercritical CO₂ and brine) in a compressible porous medium. Compressibility of the rock formation and both fluid phases are also accounted for. Injection pressure is assumed to be limited by the pressure required to fracture the rock formation. Fracture development is assumed to occur when pore pressures exceed the minimum principal stress, which in turn is related to the Poisson’s ratio of the rock formation. Detailed guidance is also offered concerning the estimation of viscosity, density and compressibility for the brine and CO₂. Example calculations are presented in the context of data from the Plains CO₂ Reduction (PCOR) Partnership. Such a methodology will be useful for screening analysis of potential CO₂ injection sites to identify which are worthy of further investigation.     

A complimentary tool in the determination of activity concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides

The determination of activity concentrations of radionuclides requires a reliable gamma spectrometry system, which also depends on the compulsory attainment of secular equilibrium amongst the progenies of the radionuclide of interest. This is often difficult to attain and hence a helium particle induced x-ray emission technique, not requiring the compulsory attainment of secular equilibrium, was used to determine the actual concentrations of the elemental content of tailings from the high background radiation tin mining area, Jos, Nigeria. The activity concentrations of the radionuclides of ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th and ²³⁸U were also calculated based on their elemental analyses, providing reliable information about the heads of uranium (²³⁸U) and thorium (²³²Th) series on the study area.     

Drivers influencing adaptive management: a retrospective evaluation of water quality decisions in South East Queensland (Australia)

This article analyzes interviews with natural resource managers in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. The objectives of the research are (i) to apply and test deductive/inductive text analysis methods for constructing a conceptual model of water quality decision-making in SEQ, (ii) to understand the role of information in the decision-making process, and (iii) to understand how to improve adaptive management in SEQ. Our methodology provided the means to quickly and objectively explore interview data and also reduce potential subjective bias normally associated with deductive text analysis methods. At a more practical level, our methodology indicates potential intervention points if one is to influence the decision-making process in the region. Results indicate that relevant information is often ignored in SEQ, with significant consequences for adaptive management. Contextual factors (political, social, and environmental) together with effective communication or lobbying strategies often prevent evidence-based decisions. We propose that in addition to generating information to support decisions, adaptive management also requires an appraisal of the true character of the decision-making process, which includes how stakeholders interact, what information is relevant and salient to management, and how the available information should be communicated to stakeholders and decision-making bodies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0537-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Decision analysis on fire safety design based on evaluating building fire risk to life

This study presents a framework of decision analysis on fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life. A probabilistic risk assessment method for occupant life is presented with consideration of some uncertainties of evacuation process and fire development at first. For occupant evacuation time assessment, occupant pre-movement time is characterized by normal distribution. For onset time to untenable conditions assessment, its uncertainty is considered as probability distribution according to the range of design fires. Based on event tree technique, probable fire scenarios are analyzed with consideration of the effect of fire protection systems, employees extinguishing, etc. It is difficult to make a precise assessment on probability and consequence of every fire scenario, but their lower bound and upper bound can be achieved based on statistical data. Therefore, Supersoft Decision Theory [Malmnäs, P.E., 1995. Methods of Evaluation in Supersoft Decision Theory. Department of Philosophy, Stockholm University, 365 Stockholm; Johansson, H., Malmnäs, P.E., 2000. Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment. Journal of Fire Protection Engineering 14, 55–84] that allows decision maker to utilize vague statement is utilized to integrate with risk assessment to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives. To express how to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life, two hypothetical fire safety design alternatives for a commercial building are presented.     

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.     

基于浏览器/服务器的危险废物管理区域决策支持信息系统的研究与开发

讨论了危险废物管理区域决策支持系统的体系结构、开发方法、应用环境、逻辑和功能结构、安全性设计以及系统实现方法 .该区域决策支持系统的设计方法和结构框架对其他环境信息系统开发与设计具有借鉴意义 .