Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected
to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active
way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties.
Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and
model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM
and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model
building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience.
The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation
models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in
a balanced way during the decision making process. 相似文献
The machair sand dune systems of the Outer Hebrides of Scotland are a unique habitat, which is rare within both a global and
European context. Unusually, the machair habitat also represents an agricultural resource that is very important to the Hebridean
people, having been subject to both grazing and cultivation throughout the historical period. Following designation as an
Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) in 1988, the machairs of South Uist have been studied with the aim of understanding the
links between agricultural practice and their plant community and ecosystem dynamics. This research focused primarily on the
effects of cultivation practices and their role in maintaining plant species richness and community and ecosystem stability.
Within two carefully selected areas, the successional plant communities of machair at different stages of recovery following
ploughing and cultivation of cereals and potato patches or ‘lazy beds’ were identified at both a macro- and micro-level. Investigations
of the vegetation recovery processes on turves taken from newly ploughed land indicated that the initial stages of recolonization
are characterized primarily by rapid vegetative reproduction and growth, although re-vegetation by seeds is also an important
factor. The implications of these findings for the long-term management of machair plant communities are discussed and in
particular the need to maintain old cultivation practices such as shallow ploughing. The need for more detailed research into
both seed banks and seed rain and into processes of vegetative reproduction is stressed.
Nomenclature: Clapham et al. (1981) and Stace (1991, 1997) for vascular plants; Hubbard (1984) for grasses; Pankhurst & Mullin (1991) for
the regional flora; Dobson (1992) for lichens; Watson (1981) for mosses and liverworts. 相似文献
There has been a shift in natural resource management worldwide. This paper describes how modern institutions and policies influence management and shape access to and utilization of resources by rural communities in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. It is rooted in the framework of adaptive co‐governance within social‐ecological systems, and employs a critical literature review to analyse access to and use of natural resources in rural Botswana. Prior to the establishment of community‐based natural resource management (CBNRM) in Botswana in 1989, resource governance was dominated by strong traditional institutions that were responsible for natural resource management and decision‐making. Contemporary natural resource governance is characterized by a bureaucratic system that invariably undermines the role of traditional institutions in natural resource governance. Findings indicate that policies and regulatory instruments deny rural communities adequate access to and utilization of resources available within their immediate environment. In spite of an orientation towards an anthropocentric approach to natural resource management (as in the case of CBNRM), the current governance system continues to undermine the inclusion of local resource users as legitimate stakeholders in the decision‐making process. 相似文献
While transboundary waters are widely advocated to be best managed at the basin level, practical experience in transboundary waters at the basin vis‐à‐vis other scales has not been systematically examined. To understand past experiences in transboundary water management at alternate scales, this paper: (i) determines the relative abundance of water treaties at different scales and (ii) elucidates how transboundary water law varies according to the scale to which it applies. The paper developed a scale typology with six groups, and systematically applied it to stratify transboundary water treaties. Treaty contents were then compared across scales according to the following set of parameters: primary issue area, temporal development, and important water management attributes. Results of this work reveal: (i) treaties tend to focus on hydropower and flood control at smaller scales, and organizations and policies at larger scales; (ii) a temporal trend toward treaties concluded at larger scales; and (iii) a higher proportion of treaties is at larger scales in Africa and Asia than in Europe and the Americas. These findings suggest that smaller scale cooperation may constitute a more constructive scale in which to achieve development‐oriented cooperation. Further, scope may exist to complement basin scale cooperation with cooperation at smaller scales, in order to optimize transboundary water management. In the context of basin‐wide management frameworks, Africa and Asia may benefit from greater emphasis on small‐scale transboundary water cooperation. 相似文献
This study aims at describing, analyzing and evaluating the relation between management styles and process dynamics of a complex planning process confronted with unexpected dynamics. The development of an aquatic disposal site for dredged contaminated sediments in Oslo was managed by a project management style focused on timely and cost-effective implementation. Coupling the remediation project with another infrastructural project and the actual construction of the site led to unexpected dynamics in terms of resistance and controversy. Project management had difficulties in adjusting its style accordingly, resulting in even more delay and resistance. Managing complex planning projects requires a style suitable to the characteristics of the project and the capability of adjusting it to changing circumstances. The paper concludes with some explanations why it is difficult to change management styles in complex planning and implementation processes and complexity-embracing approaches to deal with this. 相似文献
This paper examines the determinants of illegal waste dumping at the county level in Slovakia (in 77 of 79 counties), using a truncated regression model. It analyzes a unique data-set composed of illegal dumping data provided by the TrashOut platform and sociodemographic data from the national statistical authority.
This study shows that a higher level of expected overall waste production results in a higher rate of illegally dumped waste and a higher number of illegal dumping sites. More precisely, income has a positive impact on the rate of illegal waste dumping, poverty influences the rate of illegal dumping negatively and a higher level of education does not result in more responsible waste management. On the contrary, higher education has a positive influence on the rate of dumping. A negative relationship between costs of illegal waste disposal and dumping rate, as well as a positive relationship between costs of legal waste disposal and dumping rate has been revealed. 相似文献