Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.     

Air pollution as a cause of sleeplessness: Social media evidence from a panel of Chinese cities

We provide first evidence of a link from daily air pollution exposure to sleep loss in a panel of Chinese cities. We develop a social media-based, city-level metric for sleeplessness, and bolster causal claims by instrumenting for pollution with plausibly exogenous variations in wind patterns. Estimates of effect sizes are substantial and robust. In our preferred specification a one standard deviation increase in AQI causes an 11.6% increase in sleeplessness, and for PM_2.5 is 12.8%. The results sustain qualitatively under OLS estimation but are attenuated. The analysis provides a previously unaccounted for benefit of more stringent air quality regulation. It also offers a candidate mechanism in support of recent research that links daily air quality to diminished workplace productivity, cognitive performance, school absence, traffic accidents, and other detrimental outcomes.     

An evaluation of three statistical methods used to model resource selection

The performance of statistical methods for modeling resource selection by animals is difficult to evaluate with field data because true selection patterns are unknown. Simulated data based on a known probability distribution, though, can be used to evaluate statistical methods. Models should estimate true selection patterns if they are to be useful in analyzing and interpreting field data. We used simulation techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of three statistical methods used in modeling resource selection. We generated 25 use locations per animal and included 10, 20, 40, or 80 animals in samples of use locations. To simulate species of different mobility, we generated use locations at four levels according to a known probability distribution across DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR) in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, USA. We either generated 5 random locations per use location or 10,000 random locations (total) within 4 predetermined areas around use locations to determine how the definition of availability and the number of random locations affected results. We analyzed simulated data using discrete choice, logistic-regression, and a maximum entropy method (Maxent). We used a simple linear regression of estimated and known probability distributions and area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) to evaluate the performance of each method. Each statistical method was affected differently by number of animals and random locations used in analyses, level at which selection of resources occurred, and area considered available. Discrete-choice modeling resulted in precise and accurate estimates of the true probability distribution when the area in which use locations were generated was ≥ the area defined to be available. Logistic-regression models were unbiased and precise when the area in which use locations were generated and the area defined to be available were the same size; the fit of these models improved with increased numbers of random locations. Maxent resulted in unbiased and precise estimates of the known probability distribution when the area in which use locations were generated was small (home-range level) and the area defined to be available was large (study area). Based on AUC analyses, all models estimated the selection distribution better than random chance. Results from AUC analyses, however, often contradicted results of the linear regression method used to evaluate model performance. Discrete-choice modeling was best able to estimate the known selection distribution in our study area regardless of sample size or number of random locations used in the analyses, but we recommend further studies using simulated data over different landscapes and different resource metrics to confirm our results. Our study offers an approach and guidance for others interested in assessing the utility of techniques for modeling resource selection in their study area.     

Detecting Rare Species with Random or Subjective Sampling: a Case Study of Red-Listed Saproxylic Beetles in Boreal Sweden

Abstract:  Efficient sampling design in field studies is important for economical and statistical reasons. We compared two ways to distribute sampling effort over an area, either randomly or subjectively. We searched for red-listed saproxylic (wood-living) beetles in 30 spruce stands in boreal Sweden by sifting wood from dead trees. We randomly selected positions within each stand with a geographic positioning system and sampled the nearest dead tree (random sample). In the same stand we also sampled dead trees that, based on literature, were likely to host such species (subjective sampling). The subjective sampling (two to five samples per stand, depending on stand size) was compared with the higher, random sampling effort (fixed level of 12 samples/stand). Subjective sampling was significantly more efficient. Red-listed species were found in 36% of the subjective samples and in 16% of the random samples. Nevertheless, the larger random effort resulted in a comparable number of red-listed species per stand and in 13 detected species in total (vs. 12 species with subjective sampling). Random sampling was less efficient, but provided an unbiased alternative more suitable for statistical purposes, as needed in, for example, monitoring programs. Moreover, new species-specific knowledge can be gained through random searches.     

Numerical analysis of non-constant pure rate of time preference: A model of climate policy

When current decisions affect welfare in the far-distant future, as with climate change, the use of a declining pure rate of time preference (PRTP) provides potentially important modeling flexibility. The difficulty of analyzing models with non-constant PRTP limits their application. We describe and provide software (available online) to implement an algorithm to numerically obtain a Markov perfect equilibrium for an optimal control problem with non-constant PRTP. We apply this software to a simplified version of the numerical climate change model used in the Stern Review. For our calibration, the policy recommendations are less sensitive to the PRTP than widely believed.     

井冈山濒危药用植物优先保护评价

采用自制的“江西稀濒危药用植物分级标准对井冈山产１３５种（包括变种）植物进行优先保护评价。评价结果表明：２８种药用植物达濒危状态。６４种达渐危状态。３９种达稀少状态，尚有４种处于安全状态，在这些种类中需要一级保护的有４种。二级保护的有５４种，三级保护的有６６种，处于缓急保护的有１１种。     

Crisis in environmental management of the Soviet Union

The prevailing system of environmental management strongly depends on the economic and political structures of a country and is influenced by the current condition of them. Environmental degradation in the Soviet Union has been caused mainly by the political and economic misconceptions listed in this article. With the transformation of its state order to the model of Western democracies, the Soviet Union is experiencing a deep economic crisis of restructuring, reflected in a parallel crisis in its system of environmental management, which is manifest in the form of rapid transformation. This is characterized by the contradiction of the state’s old administrative institutions, which still exist, with the efforts to use market mechanisms of environmental control. Such methods include various fees and payments for the use of natural resources or for pollution and creation of specialized regional funds and banks to finance environmental programs. All these occur in the context of the strengthening of regional sovereignty, the introduction of self-accounting for economic units, the adoption of comprehensive legal enactments, and the setting up of an efficient administrative system of their enforcement. Public activism, as one of the principal actors in this structure, also has undergone quick maturation. Nevertheless the future development of the new Soviet system of environmental control remains uncertain because of the present unpredictability of the overall situation in the short run.     

蒸汽锅炉出力负荷在锅炉烟尘测试中的意义及计算方法

阐明了锅炉出力负荷在锅炉烟尘测试中的意义,同时,提出了锅炉出力负荷的五种计算方法,并特别推荐了"折算烟气流量法".     

正本清源,系统开发整治长江各支流网系的山丘土地

长江流域泥沙问题仍值得重视。长江不同于黄河．黄河年输沙量１６亿ｔ，主要为悬移质；长江多年测得输沙量５．４亿ｔ，这仅是长江的部分泥沙量－悬移质，还有数据不详的推移质随急流滚动位移。防治泥沙的良策是上游绿化造林，但还有很大面积的陡玻耕地，以及紫色土丘陵坡耕地与石灰岩区坡耕地等，仍应重点防护；至于广大的荒山、荒坡，更应多途径合理经营，从各大、小流域；溯江而上到源头径流发生处，采取工程与生物相结合的方法，节节设防，将泥沙来源减少到最低限度。最好利用大坝兴建的空隙期间，有计划有步骤地节节设防，以延长大坝寿命，当地居民亦可获利。     

A SIMPLIFIED STREAM MODEL OF ACID MINE DRAINAGE EFFECTS1

ABSTRACT: Three methods of modeling acid mine drainage effects are discussed. A net alkalinity routing model is the simplest of these, but can be potentially misleading. It typically overestimates the effect of acid sources on pH by neglecting carbon dioxide transfer to the atmosphere. Inclusion of a simple carbon dioxide transfer function can substantially reduce errors in stream quality prediction. A plug flow reaeration equation, coupled with mass balancing at mixing points in a stream network provides modeling results comparable to those of more complex computerized solutions of chemical equilibrium equations. None of the models accounts for carbonate dissolution or oxidation and hydrolysis of ferrous iron.