Integrated model of simulated occupant injury risk and real medical costs

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated methodology that links occupant injury risk functions, estimated in the laboratory, with real world medical treatment costs by using the abbreviated injury score (AIS). Using our model, the expected medical treatment costs for crash injuries to various body regions and of different severities can be investigated.

Methods

First, the simulation results are compared with NHTSA crash data. We used a modified kinematics simulation model that incorporates an F = E^b function as a supplement to the previous Steffan's model to obtain a more accurate acceleration history a(t). Second, head injury criteria HIC₃₆ can be calculated from a(t), and we use the injury probability P as a function of HIC_36, as proposed by Kuppa, to obtain the injury risk function for various AIS values. Third, medical treatment cost models for various AIS values can be calculated by using a regression cost model with real world data. Finally, the injury risk function and medical treatment cost models are linked through AIS values. We establish an integrated methodology and predict medical costs and car safety data using real world police reports, medical treatment costs, and laboratory simulation results.

Results

Using head injuries in frontal crashes as an example, we focus on simulation parameters for different vehicle models, with and without airbags. We specifically examine impact closing speed, Delta-V, and impact directions.

Conclusion

Simulation results can be used to supplement insufficient real crash data, in particular ΔV, and injury risk results from police crash reports.

Impact on industry

The proposed integrated methodology may provide the vehicle industry with a new safety assessment method. Real crash data coupling provides consumers with more realistic and applicable information.     

嘉陵江重庆磁器口段藻类生长模拟研究

藻类生长有一个适合的流速,即临界流速,在其他条件相同的情况下,处于临界流速状态的藻类生长更快.在藻类生长模型中,引人流速影响函数,数值模拟嘉陵江重庆城区磁器口河段2007年2月-7月的藻类生长情况,模拟结果与实测结果吻合较好.研究结果表明.流速在0.03-0.05 m/s比较适合研究河段的藻类生长.     

道路交叉口冲突仿真分析

针对基于事故的安全评价在数量、周期、均值、随机性等方面以及基于现场冲突观测识别在主观性、可靠性、成本、指标全面性等方面存在的问题,提出基于冲突仿真的交叉口安全预评价分析方法:研究利用安全间接分析(SSAM)模型分析冲突的基本原理和冲突时间(TTC)、遭遇时间(PET)等分析指标的计算方法;以及利用VISSIM仿真软件进行冲突仿真分析应注意的策略。以邢台市某道路交叉口安全改善方案为例,进行改善前后冲突仿真的比较分析。研究结果表明,改善后在通行效率显著提升的同时,交叉、追尾、车道变换冲突的数量均显著减少,TTC值有所增加,说明改善后安全程度有所提升。笔者提出的方法和案例应用为道路交叉口改善措施的安全预评价提供了一种分析途径和有益借鉴。     

铁路运输传爆药安全性评价

通过对现有传爆药安全性综合评价方法和装载加固评价方法进行改进,建立导弹铁路运输安全评价模型,运用改进型安全评价方法计算出导弹运输实际现实危险度。通过重大事故后果模拟法对运输过程中存在的最大量危险源进行分析、模拟,得出发生事故后产生的对人、物的危害范围。运用装载加固安全评价方法对装载加固方案进行评价,从而得知铁路运输导弹的危险综合程度,该评价模型可为铁路运输部门危险货物运输安全评价提供参考。     

钢铁企业工作场所煤气泄漏扩散规律的研究

以钢铁企业管网煤气泄漏为研究对象,以煤气泄漏扩散规律为研究主题,在确定煤气泄漏相似于浮力射流的基础上,建立煤气泄漏扩散的数学模型。采用CFD软件PHOENICS数值模拟气体泄漏过程的速度场及其浓度分布。在已有煤气泄漏检测系统的基础上,选择性实验模拟煤气泄漏浓度与扩散时间、扩散方向的变化。数值模拟和实验模拟表明,虽然两种方法所得结果存在一定差异,从定性分析角度而言,却能够反映工作场所煤气泄漏后在有限空间内运移扩散的一般规律。     

贯通巷道风流流场数值模拟若干关键问题研究

根据计算流体力学基本理论,利用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件Fluent,运用三维k-ε湍流模型对贯通型巷道风流流场数值模拟中风流入口、出口位置对巷道风流流场分布的影响、湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对模拟结果的影响等进行考察。通过研究确定模拟巷道的流体力学入口长度,确定模拟巷道出口位置;湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对入口附近流动还没有充分发展区域拟解算的结果影响较大,而对流动充分发展的区域影响较小。将数值模拟风速值与理论计算风速值进行对比,模拟结果与计算结果非常一致,验证了数值模拟方法的正确性,为研究贯通型巷道风流传质过程、瓦斯运移规律及通风排污效率等提供了理论基础。     

大型相连容器中火焰传播的研究

为了进一步了解相连装置中粉尘爆炸的火焰传播行为和压力发展,为该结构的安全防护设计提供有价值的信息,采用大型实验装置对相连容器中玉米淀粉/空气混合物爆炸时的火焰传播行为进行了实验研究,同时采用已开发的数值模型对实验进行仿真计算。实验表明:粉尘浓度的变化对粉尘爆炸的火焰传播行为有重要影响;在粉尘浓度很低的情况下,火焰仍然能够在管道中加速传播且爆炸发展的最终结果相当猛烈。数值模型采用欧拉-拉格朗日方法模拟两相流现象,通过求解非稳态的湍流两相反应流守恒方程对实验进行二维仿真,计算结果与实验结果符合性较好,表明该模型可以很好地应用于粉尘爆炸火焰传播的研究。     

Numerical Simulations of the Urban Roughness Sub-Layer : A First Attempt

Most of the mesoscale models use roughness parameters to characterise the ground and to compute the surface stress. As the experimental determinations of the urban roughness parameters are rare and not very reliable, a new methodology based on microscale numerical simulations is presented here and the first results from two-dimensional simulations with different roof shapes are analysed.Firstly, it appears that the roof shape has a large influence : large difference in the Reynolds stress profile and in the roughness sub-layer thickness, enhancement of the exchanges at the roof level by buildings with attic. It also appears that the fetch necessary to obtain a constant flux layer is unrealistic compared to the real spatial homogeneity of quarters in European cities. Consequently, a new parameterisation of the urban ground-induced friction is to be developed without reference to the constant flux layer theory.     

A New Approach to Plant Diversity Assessment Combining HPLC Data, Simplex Mixture Design and Discriminant Analysis

The quantitative assessment of plant diversity and its monitoring with time represent a key environmental issue for management and conservation of natural resources. Assessment of plant diversity could be based on chemical analyses of secondary metabolites (e.g. flavonoids, terpenoids), because of the substantial quantitative and qualitative between-individual variability in such compounds. At a geographical scale, the plant populations become widely dispersed, and their monitoring from numerous routine individual analyses could become restricting. To overcome such constraint, this study develops a multivariate calibration model giving the relative frequency of a particular taxon from a simple high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis of a plant mixture. The model was built from a complete set of mixtures combining different taxons, according to an experimental design (Scheffé’s matrix). For each mixture, a reference HPLC pattern was simulated by averaging the individual HPLC profiles of the constitutive taxons. The calibration models, based on Bayesian discriminant analysis (BDA), gave statistical relationships between the contributions of each taxon in mixtures and reference HPLC patterns of these mixtures. Finally, these models were validated on new mixtures by using outside plants. This new biodiversity survey approach is illustrated on four chemical taxons (four chemotypes) of Astragalus caprinus (Fabaceae). The more differentiated the taxon, the better predicted its contributions (in mixtures) were by BDA calibration model. This new approach could be very useful for a global routine survey of plant diversity.     

基于虚拟样机的自卸汽车卸载作业侧翻分析

针对自卸汽车卸载作业时发生的侧翻问题,分析影响自卸汽车作业安全的因素.根据自卸汽车结构及其作业特点,建立自卸汽车整车虚拟样机模型.采用多体系统动力学分析软件(ADAMS),对自卸汽车在不同横向坡度卸载作业的安全性进行仿真分析,得到自卸汽车安全作业的举升角与路面横向坡度、装载重量间的关系.结果表明,一定载荷条件下,横向坡度越大,临界举升角越小; 横向坡度相同时,载重越大,临界举升角越小; 未正常卸载工况的临界举升角小于正常卸载工况的.本研究为减少或避免自卸汽车卸载作业时的侧翻事故提供了参考依据.