滑坡灰色系统预测模型及其应用

本文在分析目前国内外滑坡灰色预测预报模型基础上，提出了一种新的滑坡灰色系统预测预报模型。该模型相对於过去常用的灰色模型考虑了更多的影响因素，有更高的可信度。它不仅可用作滑波的临滑预报，还可用于般监测信息的预测。     

人工神经网络在台风预报中的应用初探

为了探索人工神经网络应用于台风分类预报的可能性，用具有Ｓ－特特性函数的Ｂ－Ｐ网络对每类台风的标准样本进行训练，由训练结束后的权值和阈值及待预报样本的因子测值，计算出网络输出值，作出台风分类预报。文中的实例表明人工神经网络用于台风预报具有客观性、可行性和实用性。     

甘肃省自然灾害及其防治对策

本文就甘肃省自然灾害的类型、分布、成因及其对社会经济的影响进行了分析研究,并提出了防治对策。     

面向保险业的大面积自然灾害防灾核损信息系统研究

本文依据区域自然灾害的组织体系，在Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓ环境下，以ＭａｐＩｎｆｏ（ＧＩＳ）软件为主要支持工具，结合ＦｏｘＰｒｏｗ、ＶｉｓｕａｌＣ＋＋，提出了一整套保险防灾核损信息管理系统建设的概念化模型，并以湖南省为例，建立了全中文界面、面向湖南保险业的大面积防灾核损信息系统。最后，结合本系统给出几个应用实例     

灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度判别法

作者应用模糊模式识别理论于灾害损失等级划分的研究，提出了模糊灾度概念，并建立了模糊灾度等级的隶属函数，从而给出了一种可用于灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度判别法。     

中学生交通安全知识、态度、行为调查分析

为改善中学生交通安全现状,提高中学生交通安全教育水平,进行中学生交通安全知识、态度、行为(简称知信行,KAP)调查研究。对临沂市、滨州市中学生进行问卷调查,了解受调查中学生交通事故历史及交通安全教育接受情况。分析各年级中学生交通安全知信行差异,分析知信行的相关性以及教育对知信行的影响。研究发现:不同地区、年级的中学生在交通安全知信行上存在显著差异;中学生自行车交通出行是交通安全的共同问题;中学生交通行为与交通安全知识相关性强,行为与安全态度相关性弱,为改善中学生交通行为应加强交通安全知识教育;学生交通安全知信行与当前交通安全教育相关性低,教育形式和特点仍较为传统,教育对知信行改善作用有限。因此,在进行交通安全教育时,应考虑中学生中存在的差异,通过初步调查确定重点人群和显著问题进行针对性教育;内容应以安全知识为主,应强调自行车安全知识,形式和特点应适应当代中学生需要。     

Tracking progress on the economic costs of disasters under the indicators of the sustainable development goals

The Sustainable Development Goals indicator framework identifies as an indicator of progress the objective of reducing disaster losses as a proportion of global gross domestic product. This short analysis presents data on this indicator from 1990. In constant 2017 US dollars, both weather-related and non-weather related catastrophe losses have increased, with a 74% increase in the former and 182% increase in the latter since 1990. However, since 1990 both overall and weather/climate losses have decreased as proportion of global GDP, indicating progress with respect to the SDG indicator. Extending this trend into the future will require vigilance to exposure, vulnerability and resilience in the face of uncertainty about the future frequency and magnitude of extreme events.     

Hepatitis B triple series vaccine and developmental disability in US children aged 1–9 years

This study investigated the association between vaccination with the Hepatitis B triple series vaccine prior to 2000 and developmental disability in children aged 1–9 years (n = 1824), proxied by parental report that their child receives early intervention or special education services (EIS). National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2000 data were analyzed and adjusted for survey design by Taylor Linearization using SAS version 9.1 software, with SAS callable SUDAAN version 9.0.1. The odds of receiving EIS were approximately nine times as great for vaccinated boys (n = 46) as for unvaccinated boys (n = 7), after adjustment for confounders. This study found statistically significant evidence to suggest that boys in United States who were vaccinated with the triple series Hepatitis B vaccine, during the time period in which vaccines were manufactured with thimerosal, were more susceptible to developmental disability than were unvaccinated boys.     

The implementation of environmental education to promote sustainability: an overview of the processes and challenges

ABSTRACT

This paper interprets aspects of the implementation of environmental education in a Higher Education Institution, situated in a developing country, to promote Education for Sustainable Development (ESD). The paper will allow educators to categorise the multiplicity of ESD programmes and projects in higher education institutions, determine their limitations and acceptability, and benefit from the theoretical framework of affective learning in designing new ESD interventions. The paper will also provide an overview of the processes required to establish ESD in developing and developed countries. This paper will further help universities to develop a better understanding of how integration of the three components of sustainable development – economic development, social development and environmental protection – can be incorporated in higher education. The paper explores the challenges for planning the implementation of ESD in an education faculty, outlining the potential lessons learned that could assist in improving ESD efforts in Faculties of Education.     

The potential for combining indigenous and western knowledge in reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards in small island developing states

The benefits of indigenous knowledge within disaster risk reduction are gradually being acknowledged and identified. However, despite this acknowledgement there continues to be a gap in reaching the right people with the correct strategies for disaster risk reduction.

This paper identifies the need for a specific framework identifying how indigenous and western knowledge may be combined to mitigate against the intrinsic effects of environmental processes and therefore reduce the vulnerability of rural indigenous communities in small island developing states (SIDS) to environmental hazards. This involves a review of the impacts of environmental processes and their intrinsic effects upon rural indigenous communities in SIDS and how indigenous knowledge has contributed to their coping capacity. The paper concludes that the vulnerability of indigenous communities in SIDS to environmental hazards can only be addressed through the utilisation of both indigenous and Western knowledge in a culturally compatible and sustainable manner.