Evaluating the impacts of global environmental assessments

There are currently no widely accepted procedures for comparing the performance of global environmental assessments (GEAs) and this may be a barrier to improving their methodology. To encourage greater self-reflection within the GEA community, it is proposed to introduce consistent evaluation approaches. Two elements from current evaluation practice are reviewed here that could be particularly useful for evaluating GEAs. The first are logic models which provide a transparent visual mapping of how activities in a GEA are intended to have impacts on policies. The second are performance metrics. It is proposed that GEAs adopt two kinds of metrics: (i) A common generic set for use in all GEAs to provide a basis for comparing the performance of GEAs, and (ii) a specific set of measureable metrics for each particular GEA derived from/linked to the generic set. Although many issues arise in applying these and other elements from evaluation theory and practice to GEAs, the potential benefits are greater comparability of GEA performance and new knowledge about how to improve them. This Short Communication is part of a Special Issue on solution-oriented GEAs.     

Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration

Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ET_g. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ET_g derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ET_g to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ET_g to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ET_g despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ET_g appears to bias ET_g during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.     

Enhanced CO2 adsorptive performance of PEI/SBA-15 adsorbent using phosphate ester based surfactants as additives

In this study,a series of polyetherimide/SBA-15: 2-D hexagonal P6 mm,Santa Barbara USA(PEI/SBA-15) adsorbents modified by phosphoric ester based surfactants(including tri(2-ethylhexyl)phosphate(TEP),bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate(BEP) and trimethyl phosphonoacetate(TMPA))were prepared for CO_2 adsorption.Experimental results indicated that the addition of TEP and BEP had positive effects on CO_2 adsorption capacity over PEI/SBA-15.In particular,the CO_2 adsorption amount could be improved by around 20% for 45PEI–5TEP/SBA-15 compared to the additive-free adsorbent.This could be attributed to the decrease of CO_2 diffusion resistance in the PEI bulk network due to the interactions between TEP and loaded PEI molecules,which was further confirmed by adsorption kinetics results.In addition,it was also found that the cyclic performance of the TEP-modified adsorbent was better than the surfactant-free one.This could be due to two main reasons,based on the results of in situ DRIFT and TG-DSC tests.First and more importantly,adsorbed CO_2 species could be desorbed more rapidly over TEP-modified adsorbent during the thermal desorption process.Furthermore,the enhanced thermal stability after TEP addition ensured lower degradation of amine groups during adsorption/desorption cycles.     

The evolution of mass balance models of persistent organic pollutant fate in the environment

Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as, or even more, important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time', concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently, high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators, which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning, transport, transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models, evaluative models, models of real local, regional and global fate, as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial, temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally, the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed, as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication, acidification and global climate change.     

Conceptual Models as Hypotheses in Monitoring Urban Landscapes

Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions.     

An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.     

Sorption‐desorption kinetics of some organochlorine insecticides in silt‐water suspensions

Kinetic (batch) sorption and desorption experiments for some organochlorine insecticides in silt‐water suspensions are described. The effect of possible experimental artifacts on the results is examined. The influence of the silt/water ratio on the linear sorption coefficient and on the “nonextractable”; solute fraction is determined. The sorption process is described in terms of some kinetic models.     

Assessing the Risk of Ships Striking Large Whales in Marine Spatial Planning

Marine spatial planning provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment and has the potential to minimize environmental impacts and reduce conflicts among users. Spatially explicit assessments of the risks to key marine species from human activities are a requirement of marine spatial planning. We assessed the risk of ships striking humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), blue (Balaenoptera musculus), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales in alternative shipping routes derived from patterns of shipping traffic off Southern California (U.S.A.). Specifically, we developed whale‐habitat models and assumed ship‐strike risk for the alternative shipping routes was proportional to the number of whales predicted by the models to occur within each route. This definition of risk assumes all ships travel within a single route. We also calculated risk assuming ships travel via multiple routes. We estimated the potential for conflict between shipping and other uses (military training and fishing) due to overlap with the routes. We also estimated the overlap between shipping routes and protected areas. The route with the lowest risk for humpback whales had the highest risk for fin whales and vice versa. Risk to both species may be ameliorated by creating a new route south of the northern Channel Islands and spreading traffic between this new route and the existing route in the Santa Barbara Channel. Creating a longer route may reduce the overlap between shipping and other uses by concentrating shipping traffic. Blue whales are distributed more evenly across our study area than humpback and fin whales; thus, risk could not be ameliorated by concentrating shipping traffic in any of the routes we considered. Reducing ship‐strike risk for blue whales may be necessary because our estimate of the potential number of strikes suggests that they are likely to exceed allowable levels of anthropogenic impacts established under U.S. laws. Evaluación del Riesgo de Colisiones de Barcos y Ballenas en la Planificación Marina Espacial     

Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants(POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane(DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs)were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models(GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ～100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus(TP) concentrations and regional GDP(anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.     

水华束丝藻对汞的吸附-解吸特征

通过室内模拟实验,探究不同丰度的活、死水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺的吸附动力学特征和等温吸附模型以及解吸特征。结果表明,水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺有较好的吸附效果,能在短时间内吸附大量Hg²⁺,120 min左右达到吸附平衡,且活藻对Hg²⁺的吸附效果比死藻好;活藻和死藻吸附Hg²⁺的动力学过程符合准一级、准二级动力学模型,且准二级动力学模型拟合效果更好;活、死水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺的吸附分别符合Langmuir模型、D-R模型,最大吸附量分别为2.07×10^-2 ng/（10⁶ cells）、3.56×10^-2 ng/（10⁶ cells）;水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺的单位吸附量随着藻丰度的增加而减少,吸附总量随着藻丰度的增加而增加。反应初期（0～5 min）,活、死水华束丝藻对Hg²⁺进行生物吸附,吸附速度快且效率高;随后活藻依靠新陈代谢将Hg²⁺转移至细胞内进行生物富集,因而活藻的单位吸附量高于死藻。活藻和死藻对Hg²⁺的解吸量随藻丰度的增加而增加,且死藻变化更明显。