煤体电荷感应信号评价冲击危险性试验研究

为完善冲击地压矿井的冲击危险性评价方法,提高冲击危险性预测的准确率,应用自主研制的煤岩电荷监测系统,选择典型冲击地压矿井的煤样,开展了煤体单轴压缩冲击危险性测试与电荷感应监测试验研究。基于冲击地压扰动响应失稳理论,将应变软化阶段产生的电荷信号变化作为预测冲击地压发生的前兆信息,得到了煤体冲击危险性指标的临界软化系数Kρ、临界应力系数Kp及其冲击危险的等级分类标准,分析了煤体电荷感应信号的电荷事件数CSJ和电荷事件的平均幅值CFZ参量与冲击危险性指标Kρ和Kp之间的量化关系。结果表明:煤样破裂应力峰后,冲击倾向性K与电荷事件数CSJ呈指数递减关系,与CFZ呈指数递增关系;随着Kρ或Kp的增大,煤样应力峰后CSJ呈幂函数关系递增,应力峰后电荷平均幅值CFZ呈一次函数关系递减,以此可预测煤体的冲击危险程度,最后得到了河南某矿煤层冲击危险性的应力峰后冲击危险等级的CSJ和CFZ判据与划分标准。煤体冲击危险性电荷感应信号评价方法为冲击地压矿井冲击危险性评价提供了一种新的方向,对现场煤层冲击危险性评价具有指导作用,但也还需要开展大量现场试验对其进行不断修正和完善。     

降雨引发排土场滑坡的预警准则研究*

为降低降雨引发排土场滑坡的风险,提出更加科学、实用的降雨滑坡预警准则,以贵州某矿山排土场的实际情况为例,建立排土场在线监测预警系统,并基于FLAC3D软件,对安全系数与边坡位移的关系以及降雨与边坡位移的关系进行数值模拟。结果表明:降雨是影响排土场滑坡的主要因素,且降雨影响具有滞后性,降雨量可作为排土场滑坡的预警指标;排土场滑坡预警等级与排土场安全系数存在密切相关性,可根据排土场安全系数确定滑坡红、橙、黄、蓝预警等级;可根据模拟结果确定降雨引发排土场滑坡的预警准则。研究结果具有较强的实用性,为排土场滑坡事故的预防和控制提供科学指导。     

论“三级三循环”耕地保护利益补偿模式的构建

我国耕地保护应更多侧重对耕地保护实施主体的内在激励,因此建立耕地保护利益补偿机制是实现我国切实保护耕地的关键环节。结合近期有关耕地保护利益补偿模式的研究成果,本文从耕地保护的外部性没有得到相应的经济体现、耕地保护政策损益补偿机制不健全、现行耕地保护的委托—代理机制具有较高的效率损失风险、耕地保护的区域差异性在经济上未得到有效体现、耕地资源价值核算不完善和由于比较利益的存在使得农户保护耕地的积极性不高等六大方面系统分析了我国现行耕地保护制度缺陷,提出了建立"三级三循环"耕地保护利益补偿模式的新思路。在此基础上,对"三级三循环"耕地保护利益补偿资金的筹集和使用、补偿主体、补偿标准、补偿方式等进行了详细论述。最后,从建立"三级"耕地保护基金管理委员会、对城镇居民开征耕地保护税、建立受偿农户耕地保护补偿账户体系以及加强对各级耕地保护基金管理委员会的监督管理等方面提出了政策建议。本文的分析结果对于推进我国耕地保护经济补偿,实现切实保护耕地目的具有一定的理论参考价值。     

我国淡水水生生物镉基准研究

研究了Cd对我国淡水水生生物的毒性效应,包括43种生物的急性毒性数据和14种生物的慢性毒性数据.同时,参照美国环境保护署（USEPA）颁布的水质基准计算方法,按照基准最大浓度（CMC）和基准连续浓度（CCC）计算了我国淡水水生生物的Cd基准.结果表明,我国淡水生物Cd基准的CMC值和CCC值分别为2.1 μg·L-1和0.23 μg·L-1,与美国淡水生物Cd的基准值有一定差别,研究结果为我国的Cd水质标准研究提供了参考依据.     

SBR法间歇式活性污泥系统处理有机废水的实验研究

以生粉和调和油水溶液模拟有机废水,采用SBR（Sequencing Batch Reactor）法对其进行处理,以水样浊度作为评价指标,对SBR反应工序、水样浊度与吸光度的标准曲线以及SBR法对有机废水的处理进行了检测和实验。实验结果表明,SBR反应中曝气池的运行操作由5道工序组成;标准曲线的绘制很好地拟合了水样浊度与吸光度的关系;SBR法对水样有机物的去除率随曝气时间的延长而提高,在曝气3h沉淀1h时,水样有机物的去除率达到71．89％。     

Siting and Routing Assessment for Solid Waste Management Under Uncertainty Using the Grey Mini-Max Regret Criterion

Solid waste management (SWM) is at the forefront of environmental concerns in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV), South Texas. The complexity in SWM drives area decision makers to look for innovative and forward-looking solutions to address various waste management options. In decision analysis, it is not uncommon for decision makers to go by an option that may minimize the maximum regret when some determinant factors are vague, ambiguous, or unclear. This article presents an innovative optimization model using the grey mini-max regret (GMMR) integer programming algorithm to outline an optimal regional coordination of solid waste routing and possible landfill/incinerator construction under an uncertain environment. The LRGV is an ideal location to apply the GMMR model for SWM planning because of its constant urban expansion, dwindling landfill space, and insufficient data availability signifying the planning uncertainty combined with vagueness in decision-making. The results give local decision makers hedged sets of options that consider various forms of systematic and event-based uncertainty. By extending the dimension of decision-making, this may lead to identifying a variety of beneficial solutions with efficient waste routing and facility siting for the time frame of 2005 through 2010 in LRGV. The results show the ability of the GMMR model to open insightful scenario planning that can handle situational and data-driven uncertainty in a way that was previously unavailable. Research findings also indicate that the large capital investment of incineration facilities makes such an option less competitive among municipal options for landfills. It is evident that the investment from a municipal standpoint is out of the question, but possible public–private partnerships may alleviate this obstacle.     

性能化防火分析方法在大型地下商场中的应用

地下建筑火灾具有散热性差、烟气量大、人员疏散困难的特点,需要在消防设计和安全分析时予以足够的重视。该文利用性能化防火分析方法研究某大型地下商场在发生设定火灾条件下的烟气运动以及人员疏散特性,并通过安全疏散时间判据来评估人员能否全部安全疏散。     

基于Mogi-Coulomb强度准则的井壁稳定性力学分析新方法*

传统井壁坍塌失稳分析模型是基于M-C破坏准则而建立的,该方法忽略了中间主应力对岩石强度的影响,常使得预测的钻井液密度过于保守。为此,引入考虑中间主应力的Mg-C破坏准则建立任意井眼的井壁稳定性评价新模型,通过数值模拟法分析了不同地应力状态下的井斜角和方位角对井壁稳定性的影响。研究结果表明: Mg-C准则克服了M-C准则忽略中间主应力低估岩石强度的影响,其计算结果略低于M-C准则的计算结果,有助于提高钻速,降低钻井成本;正断层地应力状态时,沿最小水平主应力方向钻进时,井壁稳定性最好;走滑断层地应力状态时,沿最大与最小水平主应力之间的某一临界角钻进时井壁最稳定;逆断层地应力状态时,沿最大水平主应力方向钻进时井壁最稳定;该模型有助于指导现场钻井井眼轨迹的优化设计及安全施工。     

列车运行安全性、平稳性的控制因素及评估准则

既有线的提速及高速铁路的修建 ,标志着我国铁路迈上了一个新的台阶 ,同时 ,列车运行的安全性和稳定性问题也愈显突出。高速、安全和舒适是高速铁路运输得以实现的三大要素 ,本文从动力学角度 ,通过不同的参数 ,分析了目前国内外列车运行安全性和平稳性的标准 ,探讨了列车脱轨、倾覆的不安全因素和旅客乘坐舒适性的各项指标 ,并提出了评估准则     

Accounting for Uncertainty in Making Species Protection Decisions

Abstract:  Uncertainty gives rise to two decision errors in implementing the U.S. Endangered Species Act: listing species that are not in danger of extinction and delisting species that are in danger of extinction. I evaluated four methods (minimum standard, precautionary principle, minimax regret criterion, adaptive management) for deciding whether to list or delist a species when there is uncertainty about how those decisions are likely to influence survival of the species. A safe minimum standard criterion preserves some minimum amount or safe standard (population) of a species unless maintaining that amount generates unacceptable social cost. The precautionary principle favors not delisting a species when there is insufficient evidence on the efficacy of state management plans for protecting them. A minimax regret criterion selects the delisting decision that minimizes the maximum loss likely to occur under alternative ecosystem states. When the cost of making a correct decision is less than the cost of making an incorrect decision, the minimax regret criteria indicates that delisting is the optimal decision. Active adaptive management employs statistically valid experiments to test hypotheses about the likely impacts of delisting decisions. Safe minimum standard and minimax regret criterion are not compatible with the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The precautionary principle comes closest to describing how federal agencies make delisting decisions. Active adaptive management is scientifically superior to the other methods but is costly and time consuming and may not be compatible with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act.