在役压力容器的动态检测技术与研究进展

根据笔者多年声发射检测与评价技术的研究成果并综合分析不同发展阶段的有关文献，论述了压力容器结构完整性检测与综合评估的意义，分析其合理性和难度，并对这种动态检测技术在评价压力容器结构完整性方面的研究进展作了较全面的评述     

医用输液生产中药品安全隐患分析及对策

针对医用输液生产中易受到异物污染、存在安全隐患的现状,分析安全隐患产生的主要环节及成因。当前生产中普遍采用的人工灯检方法,由于劳动强度大、工人易疲劳,并不能从源头上完全杜绝含有异物微粒的输液进入临床。为此,提出利用机器视觉技术对输液中异物微粒进行在线自动检测的解决方案。首先建立输液中异物粒子的运动轨迹数学模型;然后提取输液视觉图像序列中每个可能目标的有效特征,通过特征匹配和轨迹关联进行甄别检测;最后对视觉系统进行标定,确定检测到的异物微粒的粒径大小及微粒数量。实验表明,该技术对输液中微小异物检出确率达95%以上,能从源头上有效避免医用输液生产中异物污染。     

ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.     

潮湿引起感烟火灾探测器误报研究

针对潮湿现象成为典型的火灾探测误报源 ,在火灾探测综合模拟实验平台中 ,通过收集水沸腾形成的水雾进行加湿 ,研究了冬季与夏季潮湿环境 ,对散射型光电感烟火灾探测器的发生误报影响。通过比较探测器的输出值与其附近湿度变化曲线 ,从原理上分析了误报发生的原因。实验结果表明 :在气温较低的冬季 ,水蒸气较易形成液态小水珠 ,容易导致感烟探测器误报警 ,而在夏季由于气温较高 ,这种情况较难发生。对相对湿度较高或达到饱和湿度 ,以及非火灾因素的雾气或微细水珠 ,对感烟探测器可靠性的影响 ,开展下进一步的工作进行了展望     

NONPARAMETRIC TEST PERFORMANCE FOR TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY WITH SAMPLING DESIGN APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: In this paper four nonparametric tests for monotonic trend detection are compared with respect to their power and accuracy. The importance of comparing powers at equal empirical significance levels rather than nominal levels is stressed. Therefore, an appropriate graphical method is presented. The effect of the sampling frequency is also assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and a trajectory representation that visualizes the dynamics of the trade-off between the type I and type II errors. These methods are applied to compare four nonparametrical tests (seasonal Mann. Kendall, modified seasonal Mann-Kendall, covariance eigenvalue and covariance inversion) under several conditions. It is concluded with respect to the power that it is not worthwhile for the modified seasonal Mann-Kendall test applied to the AR(1) process considered in this paper to increase the sampling frequency from monthly to biweekly for detecting a monotonic trend of 5 percent, 10 percent, or 15 percent of the process variance. Under these conditions the seasonal Mann-Kendall test is highly liberal, while the covariance inversion and the covariance eigenvalue test are conservative. This research is situated in the development of an efficient sampling design for the Flemish water quality monitoring network.     

ESTIMATING THE MEAN AND VARIANCE OF CENSORED PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN FLORIDA RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: The total phosphorous (TP) concentrations in the South Florida rainfall have been recorded in weekly intervals with a detection limit (D_L) of 3.5 μg/L. As a large amount of the data is reported as below the D_L, appropriate statistical methods are needed for data analysis. Thus, an attempt was made to identify an appropriate method to estimate the mean and variance of the data. In particular, a method to separate the statistics for the below D_L portion from the estimated population statistics is proposed. The estimated statistics of the censored data are compared with the statistics of the uncensored data available from the recent years’ laboratory records. It was found that the one-step restricted maximum likelihood method is the most accurate for the wet TP data, and that the proposed method to combine the estimated statistics for TP < D_L portion and the sample statistics for TP ≥ D_L portion improves estimates compared to the conventional maximum likelihood estimates.     

REGIONAL SCALE TREND MONITORING OF INDICATORS OF TROPHIC CONDITION OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a sample survey design to answer questions about the ecological condition and trends in condition of U.S. ecological resources. To meet the objectives, the design relies on a probability sample of the resource population of interest (e.g., a random sample of lakes) each year on which measurements are made during an index period. Natural spatial and temporal variability and variability in the sampling process all affect the ability to describe the status of a population and the sensitivity for trend detection. We describe the important components of variance and estimate their magnitude for indicators of trophic condition of lakes to illustrate the process. We also describe models for trend detection and use them to demonstrate the sensitivity of the proposed design to detect trends. If the variance structure that develops during the probability surveys is like that synthesized from available databases and the literature, then the trends in common indicators of trophic condition of the specified magnitude should be detectable within about a decade for Secchi disk transparency (0.5–1 percentiyear) and total phosphorus (2–3 percent/year), but not for chlorophyll-a (> 3–4 percent/year), which will take longer.