Determining Decision Thresholds and Evaluating Indicators when Conservation Status is Measured as a Continuum

Categorization of the status of populations, species, and ecosystems underpins most conservation activities. Status is often based on how a system's current indicator value (e.g., change in abundance) relates to some threshold of conservation concern. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves can be used to quantify the statistical reliability of indicators of conservation status and evaluate trade‐offs between correct (true positive) and incorrect (false positive) classifications across a range of decision thresholds. However, ROC curves assume a discrete, binary relationship between an indicator and the conservation status it is meant to track, which is a simplification of the more realistic continuum of conservation status, and may limit the applicability of ROC curves in conservation science. We describe a modified ROC curve that treats conservation status as a continuum rather than a discrete state. We explored the influence of this continuum and typical sources of variation in abundance that can lead to classification errors (i.e., random variation and measurement error) on the true and false positive rates corresponding to varying decision thresholds and the reliability of change in abundance as an indicator of conservation status, respectively. We applied our modified ROC approach to an indicator of endangerment in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (i.e., percent decline in geometric mean abundance) and an indicator of marine ecosystem structure and function (i.e., detritivore biomass). Failure to treat conservation status as a continuum when choosing thresholds for indicators resulted in the misidentification of trade‐offs between true and false positive rates and the overestimation of an indicator's reliability. We argue for treating conservation status as a continuum when ROC curves are used to evaluate decision thresholds in indicators for the assessment of conservation status. Determinación de Umbrales de Decisiones y Evaluación delos Indicadores cuando se Mide el Estado de de Conservación como un Continuo     

四川省野外探伤的辐射安全现状与对策

本文对四川省的野外探伤单位探伤作业的辐射安全现状进行了调查,分析了野外探伤作业过程中存在的辐射安全问题,提出了野外探伤作业辐射安全监管对策与措施。     

直管道电场指纹法有效检测区范围的数值模拟

目的确定电场指纹法应用于直管道时的有效检测区大小。方法采用COMSOL多物理场数值模拟的方法,研究直管道模型在电场指纹检测时的电场分布特征,并探讨电流输入方式、电源电极尺寸、管道尺寸等因素对有效检测区的影响。结果双路电流输入方式能够获得更大的有效检测区,可提高电流利用率及检测效率。有效检测区大小受电源电极尺寸、管道壁厚变化的影响极小,受管道公称直径影响较大。有效检测区与电源电极的最小间距固定,约为管道公称直径的1.5倍。结论确定了电场指纹法应用于直管道时有效检测区的大小,为电场指纹法的管道检测规范的制定提供了科学依据。     

固定化条件对苯系物细胞传感器检测效果的影响

利用海藻酸钠作为包埋剂对苯系物细胞传感器Pseudomonas fluorescens A506(pTS)进行固定化处理,并对细胞浓度、固定化时间、投加量等检测因素进行了优化.固定化后的细胞与游离细胞对苯系污染物的检测效果进行对比.经过2 h固定化处理的细胞传感器,在检测时间1.5～6.0 h内,信号上升速度为游离细胞的2.26倍,信号最大值为游离细胞的2.23倍.固定化处理后的细胞生长缓慢,且浓度远低于游离细胞,说明了固定化处理后的单位细胞信号强度增加.同时,细胞浓度随着固定化时间的延长而降低.在影响因素方面,细胞浓度和固定化时间对于检测信号的影响较大.固定化后,对高浓度的苯系污染物有着更快的信号响应.     

可调谐半导体激光吸收光谱技术用于火灾探测——初步试验

以火灾燃烧过程中产生的气体作为参数,可以大大提高火灾探测的早期性。测量气体浓度的方法有很多,可调谐半导体激光吸收光变更技术(tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy,TD-LAS)由于其高选择性、高灵敏度和高分辨率的特点而越来越受到重视。描述了火灾特征气体CO和CO2的选取,设计了一套基于TDLAS原理的火灾探测系统,通过扣除背景噪声谱线以及对激光强度信号进行拟合,可以提高火灾探测的有效性。验证了系统对CO和CO2能够很好响应并且具有较好的线性关系,系统长时间运行稳定可靠,能够满足火灾探测的要求。     

在用柴油车排气检测中发动机转速监控技术

通过对柴油车自由加速检测方法的实际操作行为进行控制,探索发动机转速测量自动控制技术,消除人为因素对检测结果的影响,同时通过计算机对检测过程数据进行监控,规范检测行为,提高检测准确性.     

三维高密度电法在尾矿库隐患检测中的应用

三维高密度电阻率法是在二维的基础上发展起来的,克服了二维高密度电法不能直观地展示目标异常区域的走向、空间位置与形态的不足。将三维高密度电法应用于尾矿库隐患检测中,可得到丰富的地电数据,利用三维电阻率处理软件对地电数据进行反演,实现了尾矿坝三维地质数据的可视化。通过三维电阻率等值面图和三维电阻率动态截面图,可以直观、可靠的了解到尾矿坝浸润线的分布规律和坝体异常地质情况,为尾矿库的风险评估工作提供科学依据。     

石化企业设备密封点泄漏检测技术研究

介绍了国内外泄漏检测技术研究现状及发展趋势.利用专业的泄漏检测仪器设备,依据泄漏检测工作流程,对某石化企业进行了全面的泄漏检测.泄漏检测数据统计分析结果表明,企业密封点的外漏比较严重,内漏较轻;加氢装置、油品车间、气分装置、延迟焦化、重整加氢车间和聚丙烯装置密封点泄漏比较严重;采样口、排凝口、调节阀、阀门、阀杆、火嘴、长明灯和法兰泄漏较为严重;红外热像技术在设备密封点气体泄漏检测方面功能强大,应用前景广阔.同时对检测到的泄漏点和问题给企业提出了建议和措施.     

Dispersion modeling approach for quantification of methane emission rates from natural gas fugitive leaks detected by infrared imaging technique

Recently, infrared optical imaging has been applied in the oil and gas industry as a method to detect potential leaks in pipelines, components and equipment. The EPA suggested that this impending technique is considered as a smart gas LDAR (leak detection, monitoring and repair) for its rapid recognition of leaks, accuracy and robustness. In addition, compared to the conventional method using Total Vapor Analyzer (TVA) or gas sniffer, it has several other advantages, such as the ability to perform real-time scanning and remote sensing, ability to provide area measurement instead of point measurement, and provide an image of the gas which is not visible to naked eye. However, there is still some limitation in the application of optical imaging techniques; it does not give any measurement of gas emissions rates or concentrations of the leaking gas. Infrared cameras can recognize a target gas and distinguish the gas from its surrounding up to a certain concentration, namely the minimum detectable concentration. The value of the minimum detectable concentration depends on the camera design, environmental conditions and surface characteristics when the measurement is taken. This paper proposed a methodology to predict gas emissions rates from the size of the dispersed gas plume or cloud to the minimum detectable concentration. The gas emissions rate is predicted from the downwind distance and the height of the cloud at the minimum detectable concentration for different meteorological conditions. Gas release and dispersion from leaks in natural gas pipeline systems is simulated, and the results are presented.     

基于MATLAB的火灾探测报警系统寿命分布和可靠度研究

基于不同的系统可靠性寿命分布类型对应的可靠度模型,介绍4种常见的系统可靠性寿命分布模型的适用情况、特征、规律。根据概率论和数理统计相关理论,研究在MATLAB下判断系统寿命分布模型的方法,利用MATLAB函数对模型参数进行估计,构建系统可靠度模型。并以某商场的火灾探测报警系统作为研究对象,收集一段时间的系统故障数据,运用MATLAB数值分析方法,得出火灾探测报警系统的可靠度模型,找出系统可靠度随使用寿命的变化规律。结果表明:计算得到的商场火灾探测报警系统的可靠度随着使用时间变化规律与实际情况基本吻合。