The optimal time path of clean energy R&D policy when patents have finite lifetime

We study the optimal time path for clean energy innovation policy. In a model with emission reduction through clean energy deployment, and with R&D increasing the overall productivity of clean energy, we describe optimal R&D policies jointly with emission pricing policies. We find that while emission prices can be set at the Pigouvian level independently of innovation policy, the optimal level of R&D subsidies and patent lifetime change with the stages of the climate problem. In the early stages of clean energy development, innovators find it more difficult to capture the social value of their innovations. Thus, for a given finite patent lifetime, optimal clean energy R&D subsidies are initially high, but then fall over time. Alternatively, if research subsidies are kept constant, the optimal patent lifetime should initially be long and fall over time.     

Optimal feed profile for a second order reaction in a semi-batch reactor under safety constraints: Experimental study

Maximising the yield of the second order reaction (2-butanol+propionic anhydride) by manipulating the inlet flow rate is considered for an isothermal semi-batch process. First a procedure for the determination of the kinetic parameters using coupled spectroscopic and calorimetric methods is presented. Then an optimisation of the reaction system is performed numerically and verified experimentally. Constraints on the amount of heat produced and on the temperature attainable in the case of cooling failure are imposed for safety consideration.     

Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network

The growing demand for natural gas has pushed oil and gas exploration to more isolated and previously untapped regions around the world where construction of LNG processing plants is not always a viable option. The development of FLNG will allow floating plants to be positioned in remote offshore areas and subsequently produce, liquefy, store and offload LNG in the one position. The offloading process from an FLNG platform to a gas tanker can be a high risk operation. It consists of LNG being transferred, in hostile environments, through loading arms or flexible cryogenic hoses into a carrier which then transports the LNG to onshore facilities. During the carrier's offloading process at onshore terminals, it again involves risk that may result in an accident such as collision, leakage and/or grounding. It is therefore critical to assess and monitor all risks associated with the offloading operation. This study is aimed at developing a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier. It investigates different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents. Dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory can estimate the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. It can also estimate the failure probability of the safety system and thereby develop a dynamic failure assessment tool for the offloading process at a particular FLNG plant. The main objectives of this paper are: to understand the LNG offloading process, to identify hazardous events during offloading operation, and to perform failure analysis (modelling) of critical accidents and/or events. Most importantly, it is to evaluate and compare risks. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to validate the risk models and to study the behaviour of the most influential factors. The results have indicated that collision is the most probable accident to occur during the offloading process of an LNG carrier at berth, which may have catastrophic consequences.     

Gaseous mercury emissions from unsterilized and sterilized soils: The effect of temperature and UV radiation

Mercury (Hg) emissions from the soils taken from two different sites (deciduous and coniferous forests) in the Adirondacks were measured in outdoor and laboratory experiments. Some of the soil samples were irradiated to eliminate biological activity. The result from the outdoor measurements with different soils suggests the Hg emission from the soils is partly limited by fallen leaves covering the soils which helps maintain relatively high soil moisture and limits the amount of heat and solar radiation reaching the soil surface. In laboratory experiments exposure to UV-A (365 nm) had no significant effect on the Hg emissions while the Hg emissions increased dramatically during exposure to UV-B (302 nm) light suggesting UV-B directly reduced soil-associated Hg. Overall these results indicate that for these soils biotic processes have a relatively constant and smaller influence on the Hg emission from the soil than the more variable abiotic processes.     

局部断层场地对平面SV波的散射

借助Wolf的土层和半空间精确动力刚度矩阵及斜线荷载的格林函数,利用间接边界元法在频域内求解了局部断层场地对SV波的散射,着重分析了破碎带较窄断层两侧围岩动力响应的基本规律,以及场地动力特性对散射的影响.研究表明,破碎带断层对SV波有显著的影响,即使破碎带很窄,也可以对SV波产生很大的放大作用;层状场地的动力特性对放大作用有显著的影响.     

Legalizing markets and the consequences for poaching of wildlife species: the vicuña as a case study

Vicuña provide an excellent case study for examining the sustainable use of wildlife outside protected areas: the community-based conservation approach. Vicuña populations in the high Andes of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Perú fell to a critically low level, but a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) ban on trade in their fiber has seen numbers recover dramatically, and now live shearing of vicuña for a high-value international market is being promoted as a mechanism to secure both sustainable vicuña populations and local livelihoods. We used a dynamic optimization model to explore the consequences of legalizing markets, including the consequences for poaching which is critical in vicuña dynamics. Using parameters obtained from the literature and expert knowledge, we explored different scenarios for the Argentine region of Cieneguillas. Our results showed that the role of the international market is ambiguous; live shearing for an international market can provide the very best of outcomes for both vicuña and local people, with large herds generating high revenues. But an international market also creates a market for poached vicuña fiber; as a result, vicuña numbers risk once again falling to critically low levels, resulting also in minimal revenues from sale of fiber. The message for the international community is that if community-based conservation is not implemented carefully then its impact can easily be perverse.     

Sperm allocation in an uncertain world

Models of optimal sperm allocation are constructed using stochastic dynamic programming techniques, yielding predictions about sperm allocation when males mate sequentially, breeding time is finite, sperm stores are limited and females vary in quality. The models suggest that uncertainty of future reproductive opportunities should favour withholding of sperm, so that males tend to allocate less (for a given level of stored sperm) earlier in the breeding season. This effect is more pronounced the greater the variance in female quality. We also show that while allocation will be influenced by mate value, it is not necessarily optimal to allocate preferentially to high-quality females, since the benefits of a higher-quality mate may be offset by increased risk of rejection of sperm or higher sperm competition. The relationship between mate quality and level of allocation will depend strongly on the amount of remaining stored sperm, with males whose supplies are depleted being more likely to favour lower-quality partners. Received: 12 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 28 June 1998     

Seaward coastal defence: limitations and possibilities

In The Netherlands shoreline retreat is actively counteracted, mostly by means of beach nourishment in which some allowance is made for natural fluctuations. For some parts of the coast, however, a more active socalled ‘seaward coastal defence strategy’ might be more profitable. This applies to coasts with a small dune ridge subject to severe erosion. According to this strategy the morphological system is influenced in such a way that erosion is prevented, which will result in a stable or even an accretion coastline. The effectiveness of the seaward coastal defence strategy has to be compared with maintenance by beach nourishment. The effects on the morphological system, the environment and other interests must also be analysed. Several seaward solutions are possible. In order to gain more insight into the behaviour of these solutions, comparative pilot studies have been executed for the most vulnerable locations. This paper gives an overview of the main conclusions of the pilot studies in comparison with sand nourishment, the main coastal defence measure.     

Carrousel氧化沟单个表曝机流态的模型试验和分析比较

对仅安装1个倒伞形表面曝气机(简称表曝机)的Carrousel氧化沟模型进行了水力学测定,通过颗粒动态分析仪(PDA)系统分析流出和流入表曝机一侧的液体流动速度、沉降速度,以及固体含量分布.结果表明,流出表曝机一侧,距表曝机较近的x轴位置流速较大;沉降速度沿y轴有个转折点,位于沟壁与挡板的中间;远离单个表曝机,固体含量逐渐增大.并将单个表曝机的测量结果与氧化沟内安装2个表曝机的流动试验进行比较,发现2个表曝机所产生的流场与单个表曝机产生的流场差别较大,且2个表曝机所产生的流场更稳定.      

大吨位桥式起重机主梁静刚度检测方法

探索了一种基于弹性理论的桥式起重机静刚度的近似测量方法,可大幅度减轻配重工作的难度并在现场检测中得到应用。