关于防灾工程的投资决策问题

本文对研究防灾工程动态投资决策理论和方法的意义进行了阐述;对灾害的定义、灾害的共性、灾害的分类和开展一般性防灾投资决策理论和方法研究的可行性进行了讨论;阐明了防灾工程动态投资决策的概念和特点;提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度、灾害的灾害势等概念;提出了防灾工程动态投资决策准则。     

埋地塑料排水管在市政工程中的应用及存在问题

分析了埋地塑料排水管的发展背景,介绍了当前常见埋地塑料排水管的种类、性能等特点,指出了塑料管材在市政排水工程应用中存在的问题及解决办法,预测了我国埋地塑料排水管发展趋势和前景.     

基于ADAMS/Rail的直线电机轨道交通安全性研究

阐述了直线电机轨道交通的技术特点,并就其安全评价体系做了介绍,应用ADAMS/Rail软件分别建立了轮对、构架、悬挂系统、止挡、自导向径向转向架、直线电机以及车体的模型,并考虑轮轨关系组合为直线电机轨道交通的车辆-轨道耦合动力学整体模型,进行了大量的计算仿真。笔者主要以脱轨系数为例进行了动力响应分析,给出考虑了径向转向架和直线电机后的安全评判指标,比较了与径向转向架和未安装直线电机的区别,验证了模型的正确性和有效性。为后续研究直线电机轨道交通车辆-轨道耦合动力学模型提供了理论基础,从而可以进一步从安全性角度研究线路设计参数。为我国今后直线电机轨道交通建设就线路参数对车辆运行安全性的影响研究方面起到理论指导作用。     

Combining HAZOP with dynamic simulation—Applications for safety education

A quantitative variation of the hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP) procedure is demonstrated. The process is divided into sections and dynamic models of the separate sections are prepared. Those models are used in the framework of the HAZOP procedure to determine the magnitude of the deviations from normal operation conditions that may lead to serious accidents and to test design modification to improve the safety characteristic of the process. A process involving an exothermic reaction conducted in a semi-batch reactor is used to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed procedure and its application for safety education and operator training. The programs used for simulating the reactor are available at: ftp://ftp.bgu.ac.il/shacham/OctanoneProd/.

It is shown that the use of those programs can enhance considerably the safety education by providing tools for systematic screening of process deviation associated with possible hazardous events, determining the threshold values that may lead to such events and enabling the examination of a particular design for the adequate safe range of operation.     

大庆市土地利用动态变化分析与预测

本文主要以土地利用类型的时空变化为研究重点,通过数学建模,来研究大庆市土地利用的时空演变,尤其重点研究大庆市土地利用动态变化的预测。     

Taphonomic evidence for high-speed adapted fins in thunniform ichthyosaurs

Ichthyosaurs have been compared with the fast-swimming thunniform groups of marine vertebrates, tuna, lamnid sharks, and dolphins, based on similarity of shape of the body and locomotory organs. In addition to shape, high-tensile stiffness of the control surfaces has been shown to be essential in maximizing hydrodynamic efficiency in extant thunniform swimmers. To date, there has been no evidence of a stiffening support system for the dorsal fin and dorsal lobe of the caudal fin in ichthyosaurs, the sole stiffening structure of the ventral lobe being an extension of the vertebral column along its leading edge. Stenopterygius SMF 457 is arguably the best soft-tissue preserved ichthyosaur specimen known. Here, we examine soft-tissue preservation in this specimen in the control surfaces and provide the first evidence of a complex architecture of stiff fibers in the dorsal and caudal fins. We find by comparisons and by analogy that these fibers provided a remarkable mechanism for high tensile stiffness and efficiency of the locomotory organs virtually identical to that of the great white shark, Carcharodon carcharias. It is the first mechanostructural study of the control surfaces of a Jurassic ichthyosaur that adds essential evidence in support of the view that these forms were high-speed thunniform swimmers.     

Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land‐Use Changes along the North American East Coast: A 110‐Year Historical Reconstruction

The North American east coast (NAEC) region experienced significant climate and land‐use changes in the past century. To explore how these changes have affected land water cycling, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM 2.0) was used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of runoff and river discharge during 1901‐2010 in the study area. Annual runoff over the NAEC was 420 ± 61 mm/yr (average ± standard deviation). Runoff increased in parts of the northern NAEC but decreased in some areas of the southern NAEC. Annual freshwater discharge from the study area was 378 ± 61 km³/yr (average ± standard deviation). Factorial simulation experiments suggested that climate change and variability explained 97.5% of the interannual variability of runoff and also resulted in the opposite changes in runoff in northern and southern regions of the NAEC. Land‐use change reduced runoff by 5‐22 mm/yr from 1931 to 2010, but the impacts were divergent over the Piedmont region and Coastal Plain areas of the southern NAEC. Land‐use change impacts were more significant at local and watershed spatial scales rather than at regional scales. Different responses of runoff to changing climate and land‐use should be noted in future water resource management. Hydrological impacts of afforestation and deforestation as well as urbanization should also be noted by land‐use policy makers.     

Modeling of the venting of an untempered system under runaway conditions

The prediction of the consequences of a runaway reaction in terms of temperature and pressure evolution in a reactor requires the knowledge of the reaction kinetics, thermodynamics and fluid dynamics inside the vessel during venting. Such phenomena and their interaction are complex and yet to be fully understood, especially reactions where the pressure generation is totally or partially due to the production of permanent gases (gassy or hybrid systems). Moreover, these phenomena cannot be easily determined by laboratory scale experiments. In this paper, a dynamic model developed to simulate the behavior of an untempered reacting mixture during venting is presented. The model provides the temperature, pressure and mass inventory profiles before and during venting. A sensitivity study of the model was performed. This modeling work provides some insight regarding the interpretation of the data obtained from untempered system venting experiments. The outcome of this work contribute to improving the design of emergency relief systems for hybrid and gassy systems, where significant progress is still to be made in the experimental and modeling areas.     

Dynamic response characteristics and structural optimization of isolation seal under the impact of gas explosion

Either in the chemical process plants or in the underground infrastructures, the isolation seal is regularly used to separate the working sections and inactive sections, or to isolate the possible explosion sites in order to avoid any domino effects. Due to differences in accumulation space or ignition point locations, pressure on the seal can vary when an explosion occurs. Thus, the safety and reliability of seals are crucial to maintaining safety in process industry. This paper focuses on seals constructed with concrete and loess materials, and examines the dynamic response characteristics of the gas explosion wave on the seal through sample experiments and numerical simulation metods. The study proposes an optimized design for the explosion-proof structure of the wedge-shaped and spherical seal, which can provide a technical basis for the explosion-proof and anti-explosion measures of various sealed walls. These research findings can also serve as a basis for improving the construction quality of seals.     

Evaluation on consequences prediction of fire accident in emergency processes for oil-gas storage and transportation by scenario deduction

This paper takes the safety in emergency processes as the starting point, from the perspective of scenario deduction, to study the consequences of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation. Through the statistical analysis of actual accident cases, 19 frequently occurring basic scenarios in emergency processes are summarized. The scenario evolution paths of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation are given by analyzing the evolution law of the accident development. Fuzzy numbers are introduced to express experts' qualitative judgment on accident scenarios. The empirical probabilities of scenario nodes are obtained by defuzzification calculation, and the state probability of each scenario node is calculated by using the dynamic Bayesian network joint probability formula. Under the comprehensive consideration about the probability statistics of actual accident cases, the critical scenario nodes on the evolution path and their final scenario probabilities are jointly determined to realize the optimization of the scenario evolution path. By constructing the correlation between the optimized scenario evolution path and the accident consequences, an accident consequence prediction model is established. The occurrence probability of accident consequences is calculated by the defuzzification method and dynamic Bayesian network. The accuracy of the consequence prediction model is verified by the July 16 Dalian's Xingang Harbor oil pipeline explosion accident. The research results provide scientific basis for helping decision makers to make the effective emergency measures that are most conducive to the rapid elimination of accidents and reducing the severity of accident consequences.