轴向约束钢柱温度应力影响因素研究

建筑结构多为超静定结构.火灾条件下,组成结构的各构件在受到不均匀温度作用时,构件内将会产生温度应力.温度应力增加了构件的作用荷载,并影响受火钢柱的稳定性,是导致约束钢柱屈服破坏的主要原因.根据文献分析,轴向约束钢柱的温度应力影响因素主要有轴向约束刚度、长细比、初应力水平和构件升温.采用试验方法研究各因素对约束钢柱温度应力的影响规律.在温度应力增长阶段,构件所产生的温度应力与构件的温度升高值之间为线性关系,温度越高,温度应力越大.温度应力随轴向约束刚度和长细比的增大而增大;初应力水平越高,温度应力值越小.初应力水平的大小不影响温度应力的增长,但决定构件何时进入塑性状态.     

Developing China's roadmap for air quality improvement: A review on technology development and future prospects

Air pollution control policies in China have been experiencing profound changes, highlighting a strategic transformation from total pollutant emission control to air quality improvement, along with the shifting targets starting from acid rain and NO_x emissions to PM_2.5 pollution, and then the emerging O₃ challenges. The marvelous achievements have been made with the dramatic decrease of SO₂ emission and fundamental improvement of PM_2.5 concentration. Despite these achievements, China has proposed Beautiful China target through 2035 and the goal of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality, which impose stricter requirements on air quality and synergistic mitigation with Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Against this background, an integrated multi-objective and multi-benefit roadmap is required to provide decision support for China's long-term air quality improvement strategy. This paper systematically reviews the technical system for developing the air quality improvement roadmap, which was integrated from the research output of China's National Key R&D Program for Research on Atmospheric Pollution Factors and Control Technologies (hereafter Special NKP), covering mid- and long-term air quality target setting techniques, quantitative analysis techniques for emission reduction targets corresponding to air quality targets, and pathway optimization techniques for realizing reduction targets. The experience and lessons derived from the reviews have implications for the reformation of China's air quality improvement roadmap in facing challenges of synergistic mitigation of PM_2.5 and O₃, and the coupling with climate change mitigation.     

Analysing economic impact on interdependent infrastructure after flood: Pakistan a case in point

A disaster such as floods can have a drastic impact on interdependent infrastructure and economic sectors. The resilience or the ability of the critical sector to recover quickly from the disruption can also reduce the consequences of the disaster. In this paper, through resilience and recovery time Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output model (DIIM) is applied. Thus, Input-Output (I-O) table is constructed for Pakistan's economic system and a case study is performed on the flooding in Pakistan 2011–12. The purpose of this study is to provide a ballpark estimate of the system-wide impact and ripple effect on the sectors that lasted for several days after the disruption. Furthermore, to analyze the inoperability and economic loss in the sectors caused by the disaster in a developing country. The findings of the research show that most of the critical sectors are associated with agriculture and service sector in terms of inoperability and economic loss respectively. The outcome of the study will be essential for the policy makers, disaster management authorities and health departments to respond accordingly.     

Consequences assessment of explosions in pipes using coupled FEM-SPH method

Explosions often lead to destruction of equipment, which is a difficult problem including complicated fluid-solid interactions. Most traditional CFD methods cannot synchronously solve the movements of fluids and large deformation and fracture of solids because such problem is usually accompanied with constantly moving-and-changing boundary conditions. In this paper, a coupled Finite Element Method-Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (FEM-SPH) method was proposed to simulate the dynamic processes of explosions in pipes. The propagation of blast wave and the fracture of pipe were captured in every timestep, where the energy dissipation caused by plastic deformation and crack propagation were fully considered. A rate-dependent failure criterion for high-strain-rate load conditions was employed in the numerical simulation, which was presented in our previous work and has been verified in the dynamic fracture behavior of steels for pressure vessels and pipes. In addition, a simpler formula was proposed to describe the attenuation of blast wave outside the pipe and the consequences caused by the explosions were assessed. Results revealed the interaction between blast wave and pipe, the leakage of detonation products, the attenuations of peak overpressures outside the pipe and the corresponding consequences at different distances. It is found that when considering the energy consumption during plastic deformation and crack propagation in coupled FEM-SPH method, the assessment results are more rational than that without considering such energy consumption.     

Metal prices and the business cycle

Metal price fluctuations have recently been of interest not only because of their cyclical volatility but also of their interaction with business cycles. A related issue is whether metal prices move together sufficiently to collectively reflect macroeconomic influences. Correlation or the tendency for prices to move together has been termed “comovement”, where the commonality in prices reflects the tendency of commodity markets to respond to common business cycle and trend factors. Metal prices are known to respond to macroeconomic influences and the latter might well explain the common factor which causes them to move together. Our goal is to provide an estimate of the common factor in metal prices and to relate this factor to important macroeconomic influences. The prices we study are for aluminum, copper, tin, lead and zinc; the macroeconomic variables include industrial production, consumer prices, interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. Our results confirm that the common factor in metal prices can be related to such macroeconomic influences.     

Long-term perspectives on world metal use—a system-dynamics model

In this paper, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This metal model can be of assistance in exploring the issue of sustainability of metal resource use. Application of the model to historical trends shows it to be fairly capable of reproducing the long-term trends in the 1900–1990 period, among others on the basis of two intensity of use curves applied to 13 world regions. For future trends, a set of perspective-based long-term scenarios has been constructed that represent the major paradigms in resource use. These scenarios highlight some of the uncertain factors in the relation between economic growth, metal resource exploitation and use, and energy and environmental consequences. They also indicate that apparently similar metal flows in society may be the result of quite different and sometimes contrary assumptions on metal demand, production patterns and resource base characteristics. Such analyses contribute to a more open and transparent discussion on the issue at hand by adding quantitative explications to qualitative views.     

等维灰数递补动态模型在生活垃圾产生量预测中的应用

本文探讨了等经今天为数递补GM（1,1） 模型在垃圾产生量长期预测中的具体应用,比较了该模型与普通二次拟合灰色要 预测精度及预测值的灰区间方面的判别,说明了等维灰数递补GM（1,1）模型在作长期预测时具有一定的优越性。     

钢框架连续倒塌动力效应研究

为了研究钢框架连续倒塌动力效应,采用瞬时加载法对平面和空间钢框架柱失效后动力效应进行了研究。采用基于等效塑性转角和等效竖向位移的荷载增大系数来衡量结构的动力效应,分析跨数、层数、高宽比、柱失效位置、节点转动刚度及空间作用等参数对结构动力效应的影响,研究成果可为抗连续倒塌设计提供参考。     

Decision-making on process risk of Arctic route for LNG carrier via dynamic Bayesian network modeling

An increasing number of ships have chosen the suitable route to transport in Arctic waters during summer. Seeking a suitable model for risk decision-making in route planning is a necessary research topic at present. Due to its complex natural environment, there is significant uncertainty regarding ship navigation safety in Arctic waters. The process risk-based decision-making method to support route planning is established based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) risk assessment model for LNG carrier collision with ice or obstacles in Arctic waters. The decision-making process for ship navigation is dynamically associated with time. Therefore, a Markov Chain (MC) is built for each dynamic node in Bayesian belief network (BBN) to realize DBN associated risk assessment, which is called process risk and is applied to decision-making. Three possible routes for ships sailing from the Vikitsky Strait to the Long Strait in Arctic waters were selected in conjunction with the objective daily change data of wind speed, temperature, wave height, and ice condition. Simulations for risk decision-making in the ship navigation process are performed. Application examples show that the ship selected either ROUTE2 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Sannikov Strait – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) or ROUTE3 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) in August as the best navigable route.