民用飞机机体连接结构动刚度计算分析及试验验证

目的通过分析和试验得到民用飞机机体连接结构动刚度。方法通过理论分析,得到动刚度的推导公式,并运用有限元分析软件进行频响分析,进而得到连接结构动刚度。运用锤击法得到动刚度试验数据,并进行试验验证。结果试验结果受信号衰减的影响,低频范围内较难得到静刚度结果,但可以通过分析模型得到。试验刚度结果开始波动较大,但在高频范围趋于稳定,最终稳定在分析刚度值左右。当动刚度分析结果受频率影响变化不大时,可以采用动刚度分析均值来作为不同频率下的刚度值。结论通过频响分析得到民用飞机某种结构的动刚度变化曲线,并通过动刚度试验进行了试验验证,分析对比结果表明,有限元分析可以较为准确地得到机体支持结构动刚度,并用于工程实际。     

水下振动台关键技术的研究

本文从理论和实践两方面分析研究了水下振动台的若干关键技术问题,主要包括运动部件的设计、冷却系统的设计、密封系统的设计、压力平衡系统的设计等。解决了水下振动台设计所存在的难题。     

Bargaining over natural resources: Governments between environmental organizations and extraction firms

We consider the resource-extraction policy of a government that is lobbied by an environmental organization and an extraction firm from foreign countries. To analyze this situation, we propose a sequential Nash bargaining solution: The government bargains with both lobbies simultaneously. Should this trilateral negotiation fail, it chooses one lobby for a bilateral negotiation. The disagreement point then is to bargain with the other lobby. Finally, should this second bilateral negotiation break down, the government chooses the welfare-maximizing policy.As long as cumulative extraction is low, such that stock-dependent extraction costs are also low and extraction profits are high, the environmental organization has a weak bargaining position, but it takes influence to reduce extraction. Once that cumulative extraction has increased so much that extraction profits are below a threshold, the bargaining positions change, and the environmental organization gets compensated by the extraction firm for not letting the trilateral negotiation fail.     

A dynamic model of human dispersal in a land-based economy

This paper presents a dynamic state variable model that examines human dispersal in a land-based economy. In humans, like other animals, many individuals disperse during their lifetimes, with extensive variability in the timing and likelihood of dispersal by individuals of different states. The model places human and non-human dispersal in a common framework, specifically by utilizing a cost-benefit approach. As with other animals, individual access to resources likely plays an important role in shaping human dispersal, and the model explores the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Over a series of time steps, individuals must decide whether to stay in their natal area or disperse, given their states (wealth, marital, and inheritance status) and the environmental constraints on dispersal. Costs of dispersal include time and an initial drop in wealth, while the benefit is the potential of the dispersal area to increase wealth. The model determines whether dispersing or staying results in the highest fitness, where fitness is a function of individual wealth and years married. The model shows that dispersal is favorable under a wide range of environmental conditions, but that it also varies predictably according to individual states. Men of middle wealth values disperse under a wider variety of circumstances than poorer or wealthier men. Wealthy men, who are particularly sensitive to the time cost and mortality risk associated with dispersing, appear to adopt a more conservative dispersal strategy than poorer men, who are more sensitive to the wealth cost and wealth growth rate associated with dispersing. Dispersal behavior is also contingent on its effects on an individual's probability of marrying or inheriting wealth. Finally, the model fosters an examination of how the interaction of life events, and their directions of causation, can be studied. Received: 6 May 1998 / Received in revised form: 3 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

Methods and models in process safety and risk management: Past,present and future

The paper reviews past progress in the development of methods and models for process safety and risk management and highlights the present research trends; also it outlines the opinions of the authors regarding the future research direction in the field. Based on the open literature published in the leading journals in the field of safety, risk and reliability, the review covers the evolution of the methods and models developed for process safety and risk management. The methods and models are categorized as qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative and hybrid. The progress in the last few decades is discussed in the context of the past. Developments in the current decade formulate the basis of the present trends; future directions for research in these fields are also outlined. The aim of the article is to provide a historical development in this field with respect to the driving forces behind the development. It is expected that it will help researchers and industrial practitioners to gain a better understanding of the existing concepts. At the same time the aim is to provide direction to bridge the existing gaps through research and developments.     

Bending force prediction for dynamic roll-bending during 3-roller conical bending process

Cylindrical as well as conical cross-section structural parts are widely used in industrial applications worldwide. Such parts are produced from metal plates using many manufacturing methods. 3-roller conical bending process is one such process. In this process first the metal plates in specified blank shapes are given static bending in the rollers. Then the rollers are driven using motors for bending of the blanks under dynamic condition. During bending reaction forces will be there on the rollers. Forces acting on the rollers during the process are transmitted to the machine frame at the roller supports. In the paper an analytical model is developed for the prediction of force during the stage of dynamic bending. The model consists of various parameters like material parameters and geometrical parameters. Experimentation is carried out and the developed model is validated with the experimental results. Effects of various material and geometrical parameters are studied in the present paper. The present work can give insight in the process and can be helpful to the designers as well as to the researchers working in the area of metal forming.     

动力风泵房循环水余热回收方案设计

介绍了动力风泵房每年有大量的工业余热为没经过处理直接排放,造成能源的浪费,以及其解决的思路:利用水源热泵吸收动力风泵房中产生的余热来加热水源,变成洗浴用水,从而达到节能减排的目的.     

A simulation study of mercury release fluxes from soils in wet-dry rotation environment

A simulative mesocosm study was conducted to evaluate the influence of wet-dry rotation on mercury（Hg） flux from soil/water to air and the distribution of Hg species in water as well as Hg chemical fractions in soil. Three types of soil were employed including two kinds of paddy soil, Typic Purpli-Udic Cambosols（TPUC） and Xanthi-Udic Ferralosols（XUF）, as well as the Alluvial Soil（AS） from Three Gorge reservoir area in Chongqing, China. The results showed that Hg fluxes in wetting periods were significantly higher than that in drying periods. It might be due to the formation of a layer of stable air over the water surface in which some redox reactions promote evasion processes over the water surface. This result indicated that more Hg would be evaporated from the Three Gorge reservoir and paddy soil field during the flooding season. Hg fluxes were positively correlated with air temperature and solar irradiation, while negatively correlated with air humidity and the electronic conductivity of water. Hg fluxes from AS and TPUC were significantly higher than that from XUF, which might be due to the higher organic matter（OM） contents in XUF than TPUC and AS. The reduction processes of oxidized Hg were restrained due to the strong binding of Hg to OM, resulting in the decrease in Hg flux from the soil.