防灾工程动态投资决策分析

本文应用最优控制理论对作者在文献[1]中所建立的两个防灾工程多变量动态投资决策模型进行了求解和理论分析。在一些基本符合工程实际的假设下得到了模型的解析解以及一些有意义的结果。     

动态膜压法测定江、污混合水体中有机物含量的探讨

用双驱动动态膜压仪测定江、污混合水中有机物含量。通过测定白龙港污水和长江水混合后的膜压和滞回环面积，用它们与相应的经典法CODCr作图，获得了滞回环面积和CODCr之间良好地线性关系，表明用动态膜压法可快速测定混合水中的有机物含量，不须加任何试剂，不会产生二次污染。同时，对实验结果进行了初步的机理探讨。     

区域大气环境容量与基础工业布局研究──以镇江为例

大气环境容量是工业布局的影响因素之一。基于大气科学理论及运筹学的线性优化，创建了一个由三维中央尺度风场动力学模式、三维大气扩散数值模式及线性优化容量模式构成的动态优化区域大气环境容量模拟系统，并用该系统就镇江市区的大气环境容量及各污染源的最优排污量进行了计算，由此对镇江市现有重点污染企业的最优排污量及发展提出意见，并对未来基础工业的布局提供依据。该模拟系统具有普适性，故只要收集到模式所需要的长江沿岸地区的地理、气象及污染源资料，即可计算沿江地区的大气环境容量及基础工业企业的布局与规模，为长江产业带建设提供科学依据。     

防灾工程动态投资决策方法初探

本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。     

铁路示范路段滑坡动态分析系统

本文以成昆线乌斯河-普雄为示范路段,以该段滑坡的发育、分布规律及其对建筑物影响为研究对象;利用开发dBASE、AutoCAD、Idrisi等计算机辅助软件,初步建立了滑坡动态分析系统以实现滑坡特征分析及与环境背景的映射分析,从中揭示出示范段内滑坡发育的控制因素,为开展滑坡致灾预报奠定了基础。     

Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

最优指标法在环境监测优化布点中的应用

采用最优指标法对郑州市17个大气环境采样点的监测数据进行优选,得到的优化点位基本能反映城市空气质量的总体情况,可以达到环境监测优化布点的目的.     

半结构决策方法在松花江蓄洪区选址问题中的研究

研究松花江蓄洪区选址问题的决策方法.松花江蓄滞洪区选址问题涉及诸多定性指标和定量指标,属于半结构决策问题.本文综合层次分析法和模糊优选法,提出求解这类问题的一种半结构决策方法.基本方法是:将评价指标分为定性指标和定量指标;对于定性应用层次分析法,求其评价矩阵;对于定量指标应用相对隶属度方法,求其评价矩阵;二者合成得到全体指标的评价矩阵;最后利用模糊优选法求得最优决策.应用该方法于松花江流域蓄滞洪区的方案选择中.     

Control of TAME reactive distillation using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II

The control system performs poor in characteristics and even it becomes unstable, if improper values of the controller tuning constants are used. So it becomes necessary to tune the controller parameters to achieve good control performance with the proper choice of tuning constants. Many control problems involve simultaneous optimization of multiple variables that competing with each other. In this paper, the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) has been successfully applied to optimization of dynamic state of t-amyl-methyl-ether (TAME) reactive distillation process. This paper presents the tuning of Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers by minimizing of two objective functions (overshoot and Integral of Absolute Error (IAE)) through the NSGA-II. Results show that genetic algorithm is more suitable method for optimal control of the TAME reactive distillation columns than traditional methods such as Tyreus-Luyben.