Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

“两带”渗透率分布模型应用及渗透率规律研究*

为了研究覆岩破坏后形成“两带”的渗透率分布规律,根据理论推导应力-应变曲线以及采空区材料力学参数公式,建立“两带”渗透率分布模型,采用COMSOL软件分别对垮落带的渗透率分布和断裂带渗透率分布进行数值模拟。研究结果表明:垮落带渗透率呈“椭圆”分布,渗透率最大可达到1.07×10-6 m2,最小可达到1.5×10-8 m2;随着高度的增加,采空区两侧的渗透率变化幅度增加,中部的渗透率变化值较小。断裂带渗透率呈“铲状”分布,靠近工作面区域渗透率最大,断裂带的渗透率在上下隅角处最大可达到1.8×10-10 m2,垂直方向上随着高度的增加渗透率减小。研究结果可为西部典型浅埋煤层安全高效开采提供现场指导作用。     

城市内涝的时空分布特征及其成因分析 ——以呼和浩特市区为例

以呼和浩特市区为例,通过收集历史内涝数据与实地调查,共收集到78处积水点的具体位置、内涝范围和发生频率等实际数据,并对其内涝成因进行分析.结果表明:2016—2019年内涝灾害较2010—2016年频繁;其次,内涝主要发生在6—9月间,尤其集中在7月.空间分布特征表明,赛罕区积水点分布密度最大,而玉泉区最小.相关性分析...     

Alien plant invasions--incorporating emerging invaders in regional prioritization: a pragmatic approach for Southern Africa

Plant invasions are a serious threat to natural and semi-natural ecosystems worldwide. Most management-orientated research on invasions focuses on invaders that are already widespread and often have major impacts. This paper deals with "emerging" invaders-those alien species with the potential to become important problems without timely intervention. A climate matching procedure was developed to define areas of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland that could be invaded by 28 plant species that had previously been classified as emerging invaders. Information on the location of populations of these species in the study area was combined with information on their distributions (as native or alien) in parts of Australia and the United States of America. These two countries had the best available distribution data for this study. They also share many invasive alien plant species with South Africa. Climatic data obtained for weather stations near points of known occurrence in these countries were used to define the climatically suitable areas for each species in the study area. Almost 80% of the remaining natural environment in southern Africa was found to be vulnerable to invasion by at least one of these species, 50% by six or more and 24% by 16 or more species. The most vulnerable areas are the highveld grasslands and the eastern escarpment. The emerging invaders with the greatest potential range included Acacia podalyriifolia and Cortaderia selloana. The globally important invaders Ulex europaeus and Lythrum salicaria had a more limited invasion potential but could still become major invaders. There was no relationship between the extent of the climatically suitable areas for the different species and an expert ranking of their invasion potential, emphasising the uncertainties inherent in making expert assessments based on very little information. The methods used in this analysis establish a protocol for future modelling exercises to assess the invasion potential of other emerging invaders.     

CuSnZr三元催化剂应用于NTP强化催化脱硫过程的特性

为高效地在低温下处理大量低浓度电解铝烟气, 采用浸渍法制备了Sn Zr型金属氧化物并添加Cu作为助剂的催化剂, 并首次测试了它在低温等离子体(NTP)技术上的脱硫效果, 结果表明负载了20wt% Cu老化温度为40℃的催化剂表现出最佳的脱硫性能.并对强化之后的催化剂进行了表征, 与新鲜的催化剂对比, X射线衍射分析(XRD)结果表明放电对催化剂晶型基本不产生影响; 扫描电子显微镜(SEM), 氮吸附和脱吸(BET)表明放电会使催化剂的吸附脱附能力与孔道结构有较大提升; X射线光电子光谱(XPS)也表明放电会使催化剂表面元素价态变化, 从而使其氧化还原性能改变, 反应路径发生偏向; 催化剂性能理论计算表明铜含量的上升会导致催化剂能带结构改变, 更好利用于激发气体.     

未来RCP4.5情景下黄海DMS浓度变化模拟与分析

使用CORDEX-EA过去气候态(2000-2009年)与RCP4.5情景下近未来气候态(2041-2050年)大气强迫结果驱动中国东部陆架海域耦合DMS模块生态模型,模拟了黄海过去及近未来表层DMS浓度(C_DMS),探究了黄海近未来C_DMS时空分布的变化及其影响因素.结果表明:近未来黄海C_DMS的年循环发生变化,北黄海C_DMS极高值出现月份由5、9月转变为4、10月,南黄海由4、9月转变为4、8月;局部C_DMS高值区也发生变化,春季山东半岛附近海域、夏季苏北浅滩、南黄海中东部、秋季南黄海东部C_DMS高值区加强,夏季山东半岛附近C_DMS高值区减弱.近未来热通量、风应力对山东半岛、南黄海中东部海域C_DMS影响较大;降水量、云量对西朝鲜湾C_DMS的影响占优;苏北浅滩C_DMS受多个气候因子共同作用.     

Year-round observation of atmospheric inorganic aerosols in urban Beijing: Size distribution, source analysis, and reduction mechanism

To investigate particle characteristics and find an effective measure to control severe particle pollution, year-round observation of size-segregated inorganic aerosols was conducted in Beijing from January to December, 2016. The sampled atmospheric particles all presented bimodal size distribution at four pollution levels (clear, slight pollution, moderate pollution and severe pollution), and peak values appeared at the size range of 0.7-2.1 μm and >9.0 μm, respectively. As dominant particle compositions, NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻, and NH₄⁺ in four pollution levels all showed significant peaks in fine mode, especially at the size range of 1.1-2.1 μm. Secondary inorganic aerosols accounted for about 67.6% (36.3% (secondary sulfates) + 31.3% (secondary nitrates)) of the total sources of fine particles in urban Beijing. Severe pollution of fine particles was mainly caused by the air masses transported from nearby western and southern areas, which are industrial and densely populated region, respectively. Sensitivity tests further revealed that the control measures focusing on ammonium emission reduction was the most effective for particle pollution mitigation, and fine particles all showed nonlinear responses after reducing ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate concentrations, with the fitting curves of y = -120.8x - 306.1x² + 290.2x³, y = -43.5x - 67.8x², and y = -25.8x - 110.4x² + 7.6x³, respectively (y and x present fine particle mass variation (μg/m³) and concentration reduction ratio (CRR)/100 (dimensionless)). Overall, our study presents useful information for understanding the characteristics of atmospheric inorganic aerosols in urban Beijing, as well as offers policy makers with effective measure for mitigating particle pollution.     

液化石油气槽车泄漏处置专用接头套组的应用探讨

针对消防救援车辆缺乏专业堵漏和倒罐装备、应急处置受限等问题,研究采用专用注压接头套组与消防车配合,通过向事故槽车阀门注水加压或惰性气体的方式实施辅助堵漏,能够实现因地制宜、快速有效地解决现场液化石油气大量泄漏的问题,降低事故危害。     

民用飞机实验室APU开车高温尾气排放影响因素分析

目的 对民用飞机APU在气候实验室内开展极端气候环境下的起动和工作试验,建立一种APU高温尾气安全排放方法。方法 用CFD仿真手段对采用排气管道将APU高温尾气排出气候实验室的可行性及影响因素(包括管道直径、距离、背压等)进行系统性分析研究。结果 气管道入口距离APU管道出口过近时,将有利于APU排气,引射比ε与排气管道出口压力Pex及排气管道直径D线性相关,排放温度tex与管道直径D成反比。在排气管道入口设置平滑收敛段,利于消除涡流,减轻负压程度,并在一定范围内提高引射比。结论 采用管道被动排气是可行的,合适的排气管道设计为D/d=2.0,L/d=1.5,并在管道入口设置平滑收敛段。     

极端梯度提升与随机森林融合的天然气露点预测方法

目的 解决目前水露点数据多为人工采用测量仪器测得,时效性低且成本高昂的问题。方法 建立一种基于极端梯度提升(XGBoost)和随机森林(RF)的天然气水露点预测方法。采用XGBoost方法对所有监测工艺参数进行分析,筛选出主要影响水露点的关键工艺特征参数,以排除无关特征参数对预测的干扰。建立RF预测模型,输入关键特征集参数,实现对水露点的实时预测。以重庆气矿某脱水监测系统监测数据与生产数据为例,对所提预测方法进行对比分析验证。结果 相较于XGBoost、SVM等预测方法,RF模型具有最佳的预测性能,且经过XGBoost特征选择后,RF预测结果的MAE值降低了0.016 9 ℃,RMSE值降低了0.014 6 ℃。结论 基于极端梯度提升与随机森林融合的水露点预测方法具有更优的预测精度与鲁棒性,对指导脱水现场生产具有积极作用。