An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.     

The Frequency of Micronuclei among Newborns from Kragujevac, Central Serbia, after NATO Bombing in the Spring of 1999

Kragujevac, as an important industrial and economic center of the region, is now placed on the top of the list of environmentally endangered cities in our country. The aim of this biomonitoring study was to evaluate cytogenetic damage in a sample of newborns from Kragujevac after contamination of the environment entailed by the intensive bombing of the industrial zone of this city in the spring of 1999. The frequency of micronuclei (MN) in peripheral blood lymphocytes in a total of 61 phenotypically healthy newborns was analyzed before and after the NATO bombing. Analysis of micronuclei has been performed using the cytokinesis-block technique (CB MN test). Average MN frequency in lymphocytes of newborns before the bombing (N = 25) was 5.77 ± 0.85/1000 analyzed cells. After the bombing (N = 36), the average frequency of MN increased by a factor of 1.4 (8.11 ± 0.85), compared to the control frequency before the bombing. Statistical difference (p < 0.05) was established by Student's t-test. Our data suggest that such changes in genetic material were a direct consequence of contamination of the living environment.     

Prenatal diagnosis of 5p deletion syndrome following abnormally low maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin

Prenatal diagnosis of 5p deletion syndrome, or cri du chat, following an abnormally low measurement of a screening of serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), is reported. Karyotyping following amniocentesis revealed a terminal deletion in the short arm of one chromosome 5. The pregnancy was electively terminated. 5p deletion syndrome has been described with abnormally high hCG levels and normal hCG levels. This is the first report of its association with abnormally low levels. The association between chromosomal abnormalities and hCG is discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于人地耦合系统的国土空间重塑

地理系统主要研究地球表层人与环境相互作用的机理,强调人地关系、自然和人文要素的综合,即人地耦合系统。地理系统在国土空间中的应用主要由地理决策、地理模拟、地理工程所组成,并且相互作用构成了地理治理。国土空间是自然与人类所共同实践的物质载体,人类被自然所塑造的程度并不亚于自身塑造自然的程度,以人地耦合系统为核心的地理系统理论成为国土空间规划与整治修复的理论基础。基于人地耦合系统的国土空间重塑最终以地理治理的形式反映在人类作用于自然环境的各种活动中。经过改革开放40年的发展,中国国土空间已基本形成了较为稳定的格局,形成了经济区、贫困区、小城镇为主的三种形态空间。中国的城镇化发展与发达国家有所不同,是城市化、城镇化、乡村化“三化耦合”并存的状态。必须重视泛第三极、环中国南海、东北亚—北极等以“一带一路”全球空间为基础的战略区域研究。基于人地耦合系统理论与国土空间价值均衡理论,国土空间重塑的基础科学问题是人地耦合系统演化机理与驱动机制。国土空间规划可以划分为三种类型：发展型规划、控制型规划和修复型规划。国土空间的保护与治理包括以土地利用为核心的国土空间全域整治,以生态文明为核心的国土空间系统修复,以社会和谐为核心的国土空间综合治理。人地耦合系统最终的发展目标是形成人类与自然相互作用的命运共同体。     

Second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) iselevated in women with adverse pregnancy outcome associated with inherited thrombophilias

Obstetric complications, such as severe pre-eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, abruptio placentae, or stillbirth are associated with abnormally elevated second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and β subunit of human chorionic gonadotrophin (βhCG). This has been attributed to placental abnormalities. Women with thrombophilias have been shown to have abnormalities of the placenta resulting in adverse pregnancy outcome in these patients. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether women with pregnancy complications and inherited thrombophilias have abnormally elevated second-trimester MSAFP or βhCG. Sixty-two women with pregnancy complications were tested for inherited thrombophilias several months after delivery. The thrombophilia group included 29 women with pregnancy complications and an inherited thrombophilia and the control group included 33 other patients without thrombophilia. Patients in the thrombophilia group had a higher median MoM MSAFP compared to the controls (1.337 vs 1.086, p=0.0516). The incidence of abnormally elevated MSAFP (>2.5 MoM) was also significantly higher in the thrombophilia group compared to controls (21% vs 3%, p=0.04). Neither the median MoM βhCG nor the incidence of abnormally elevated βhCG were significantly different between the groups. We conclude that second trimester MSAFP, but not βhCG, is abnormally elevated in patients with thrombophilia and obstetric complications. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

21世纪住区建设

面对世界发展趋势和中国建设高潮期,21世纪住宅建设需体现可持续发展,引入信息技术和新材料等高新技术,适应居住生活的发展。本文概述了当前世界发展趋势和国家住宅建设目标,住宅建设面临的科技问题,着重论述21世纪住区建设的规划设计原则。     

淮河流域人地系统的自组织分析

本文从系统论的角度出发 ,从组织序变、耗散结构、协同互补、系统演化的动力机制等方面分析了淮河流域人地系统的优化、平衡及有效调控机理 ,为实现淮河流域的可持续发展提供理论依据 ,并提出了提高系统的自组织能力、激活系统的动力机制的战略举措     

Human teeth as historical biomonitors of environmental and dietary lead: some lessons from isotopic studies of 19th and 20th century archival material

The lead isotopic composition of various sections (crown, crown base, root) of teeth was determined in specimens collected from 19th century skulls preserved in museum collections and, upon extraction or exfoliation, from humans of known ages residing in Scotland in the 1990s. For most 20th century samples, calculation of accurate crown-complete or root-complete dates of tooth formation ranging from the 1920s to the 1990s enabled comparison of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios for teeth sections (crown base root) with corresponding decadally averaged data for archival herbarium Sphagnum moss samples. This showed that the teeth sections had been significantly influenced by incorporation of non-contemporaneous (more recent) lead subsequent to the time of tooth formation, most probably via continuous uptake by dentine. This finding confirmed that separation of enamel from dentine is necessary for the potential of teeth sections as historical biomonitors of environmental (and dietary) lead exposure at the time of tooth formation to be realised. Nevertheless, the mean 19th century value of 1.172±0.007 for the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio in teeth was very similar to the corresponding mean value of 1.173±0.004 for 19th century archival moss, although relative contributions from environmental sources – whether direct, by inhalation/ingestion of dust contaminated by local lead smelting (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb~1.17) and coal combustion (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb~1.18) emissions, or indirect, through ingestion of similarly contaminated food – and drinking/cooking water contaminated by lead pipes of local origin, cannot readily be determined. In the 20th century, however, the much lower values of the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (range 1.100–1.166, mean 1.126±0.013, median 1.124) for the teeth collected from various age groups in the 1990s reflect the significant influence of imported Australian lead of lower ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (~1.04) and released to the environment most notably through car-exhaust emissions arising from the use of alkyl lead additives (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb~1.06–1.09) in petrol in the U.K. from ca. 1930 until the end of the 20th century.     

基于人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)的接车进路办理诊断时间的研究

接发列车作业事故在铁路运输事故中占有相当大的比重。为减少接车作业事故的发生,合理制定车站接车进路办理时的诊断时间是保证接车作业安全的关键。针对车站采用写实法查定时具有较大随意性的问题,提出采用人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型,根据人因失误概率计算接车作业诊断时间的方法,并在自动闭塞区段通过模拟机实验进行了验证。结果表明,HCR模型确定的诊断时间与人因失误之间的关系与写实法的测定数据具有良好的符合性;作业人员的训练水平对诊断时间有较大的影响;利用该模型,根据作业人员的训练水平与可接受的人因失误概率,可以确定接车进路办理的最佳诊断时间,或对写实法测定的诊断时间进行订正。     

南岭山区传统聚落景观资源及其旅游开发研究

南岭山区的乡村传统聚落,经特定历史地理环境的演进和发展,以其特有的景观美学价值、鲜明的地域文化特色和科学实用价值的完美结合,而成为极为珍贵的历史文化遗产。由于古代南岭山区复杂地理环境的隔绝机制和移民们一直恪守着祖宗留下的遗风,其聚落景观至今得以大量保存而成为极富开发价值的 旅游资源。为促进南岭山区21世纪社会经济的快速发展,应将这一丰富的旅游资源的开发利用和保护列入议事日程。但必须深入调查研究,并坚持突出重点,择优开发;因地制宜,突出地域文化特色;旅游开发与乡村社会经济发展协调;保护与利用并重等开发原则。