Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain

This paper identifies human factors associated with high forest fire risk in Spain and analyses the spatial distribution of fire occurrence in the country. The spatial units were 6,066 municipalities of the Spanish peninsular territory and Balearic Islands. The study covered a 13-year series of fire occurrence data. One hundred and eight variables were generated and input to a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) to model different factors related to fire ignition. After exploratory analysis, 29 were selected to build a predictive model of human fire ignition using logistic regression analysis. The binary model estimated the probability of high or low occurrence of forest fires, as defined by an ignition danger index that is currently used by the Spanish forest service (number of fires divided by forest area in each municipality). Thirteen explanatory variables were identified by the model. They were related to agricultural landscape fragmentation, agricultural abandonment and development processes. The prediction agreement found between the model binary outputs and the historical fire data was 85.3% for the model building dataset (60% of municipalities). A slightly lower predictive power (76.2%) was found for the validation data (the remaining 40%). The probabilistic output of the logistic was significantly related to the raw ignition index (Spearman correlation of 0.710) used by the Spanish Forest Service. Therefore, the model can be considered a good predictor of human-caused fire risk, aiding spatial decisions related to prevention planning in Spanish municipalities.     

大空间建筑火灾下钢索的力学反应参数分析

钢索在大空间建筑火灾升温条件下的力学反应是评价索网结构抗火性能的关键依据。基于非线性有限元方法,建立了钢索在高温下的力学分析模型,模拟了大空间建筑火灾升温历程中钢索力学反应全过程,用参数分析方法得到影响钢索在火灾升温历程中力学反应的关键因素。结果表明:在大空间建筑火灾升温历程中,钢索的水平张力呈下降的趋势;随着钢索的预应力比增加、温度场非均匀性的增强和跨度的增加,其水平张力下降速率增大;荷载比的增加对水平张力下降速率影响较小。上述结论与钢索水平张力的解析解一致,可为索网结构抗火性能分析提供参考。     

Decision analysis on fire safety design based on evaluating building fire risk to life

This study presents a framework of decision analysis on fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life. A probabilistic risk assessment method for occupant life is presented with consideration of some uncertainties of evacuation process and fire development at first. For occupant evacuation time assessment, occupant pre-movement time is characterized by normal distribution. For onset time to untenable conditions assessment, its uncertainty is considered as probability distribution according to the range of design fires. Based on event tree technique, probable fire scenarios are analyzed with consideration of the effect of fire protection systems, employees extinguishing, etc. It is difficult to make a precise assessment on probability and consequence of every fire scenario, but their lower bound and upper bound can be achieved based on statistical data. Therefore, Supersoft Decision Theory [Malmnäs, P.E., 1995. Methods of Evaluation in Supersoft Decision Theory. Department of Philosophy, Stockholm University, 365 Stockholm; Johansson, H., Malmnäs, P.E., 2000. Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment. Journal of Fire Protection Engineering 14, 55–84] that allows decision maker to utilize vague statement is utilized to integrate with risk assessment to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives. To express how to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life, two hypothetical fire safety design alternatives for a commercial building are presented.     

Metal hydride fires and fire suppression agents

Most metal hydrides are pyrophoric and water-reactive. Summaries of metal hydride fire incidents are presented to illustrate ignition scenarios, threats to personnel and equipment, and fire suppression experiences. Met-L-X™, a sodium chloride-based, certified, Class D fire suppression agent, has successfully extinguished some metal hydride fires by coating the hydride and excluding air access. However, the still hot hydride is prone to re-ignition upon surface disturbance, such as may be necessary during disposal. Previously reported testing of various Class D agents and moist sand for sodium hydride fires is reviewed here along with certification and ad hoc testing of existing Class D agents and recent testing of a new candidate Class D agent. Hydride explosibility testing is also briefly summarized. Additional fire and explosibility tests, as well as suppression agent reactivity evaluations, are recommended.     

中国森林火灾周期振荡的小波分析

小波分析具有自适应性和数学显微镜性质,能将交织在一起的不同频率成分组成的复杂的时间序列分解成频率不相同的子序列.本文采用Matlab 6.5软件对1950～2002年中国林火统计资料进行小波分析,采用的小波是Daubechies 10.结果表明,1950～2000年森林火灾受害森林面积总体上呈下降趋势,1995以后受害森林面积基本控制在比较低的水平,年际间变化不大.10年和30年尺度上的变化反应出气候和植被变化对森林火灾的影响,可燃物的变化表现出近10年周期的波动性.1950～2000年中国森林火灾次数整体上是下降的,森林火灾发生次数减少的主要原因是我国对森林火灾的预防、监测和扑救能力都得到显著提高,特别是对人为火源进行了严格控制,近年来林火发生次数保持在相对低的水平.     

Modelling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in forest ecosystems of Central Russia under different climate change scenarios and forest management regimes

The individual-based stand-level model EFIMOD was used for large-scale simulations using standard data on forest inventories as model inputs. The model was verified for the case-study of field observations, and possible sources of uncertainties were analysed. The approach developed kept the ability for fine-tuning to account for spatial discontinuity in the simulated area. Several forest management regimes were simulated as well as forest wildfires and climate changes. The greatest carbon and nitrogen accumulations were observed for the regime without cuttings. It was shown that cuttings and wildfires strongly influence the processes of carbon and nitrogen accumulations in both soil and forest vegetation. Modelling also showed that the increase in annual average temperatures resulted in the partial relocation of carbon and nitrogen stocks from soil to plant biomass. However, forest management, particularly harvesting, has a greater effect on the dynamics of forest ecosystems than the prescribed climate change.     

复合干粉灭火剂抑制食用油火的试验研究

为改善普通碳酸氢钠干粉灭火剂(BC干粉)抑制食用油火时抗复燃性较差的不足,选择聚磷酸铵、溴化钾和一水合草酸钾作为添加剂,与普通BC干粉灭火剂混合配制成复合干粉灭火剂。通过全尺度模拟试验研究各种复合粉体对食用油火的灭火效果及其抗复燃性能。结果证明,普通BC干粉与一水合草酸钾复配而成的复合粉体针对食用油火的灭火效果和抗复燃性能在几种粉体中最佳。根据试验数据和各粉体的理化特性,对4种粉体的灭火效果差异作了详细的分析和讨论。     

Comparison of UV and UV-LED activated sodium percarbonate for the degradation of O-desmethylvenlafaxine

As an active metabolite of venlafaxine and emerging antidepressant, O-desmethylvenlafaxine (ODVEN) was widely detected in different water bodies, which caused potential harm to human health and environmental safety. In this study, the comparative work on the ODVEN degradation by UV (254 nm) and UV-LED (275 nm) activated sodium percarbonate (SPC) systems was systematically performed. The higher removal rate of ODVEN can be achieved under UV-LED direct photolysis (14.99%) than UV direct photolysis (4.57%) due to the higher values of photolysis coefficient at the wavelength 275 nm. Significant synergistic effects were observed in the UV/SPC (80.38%) and UV-LED/SPC (53.57%) systems and the former exhibited better performance for the elimination of ODVEN. The degradation of ODVEN all followed the pseudo-first-order kinetics well in these processes, and the pseudo-first-order rate constant (k_obs) increased with increasing SPC concentration. Radicals quenching experiments demonstrated that both ·OH and CO₃·⁻ were involved in the degradation of ODVEN and the second-order rate constant of ODVEN with CO₃·⁻ (1.58 × 10⁸ (mol/L)⁻¹ sec⁻¹) was reported for the first time based on competitive kinetic method. The introduction of HA, Cl⁻, NO₃⁻ and HCO₃⁻ inhibited the ODVEN degradation to varying degrees in the both processes. According to quantum chemical calculation, radical addition at the ortho-position of the phenolic hydroxyl group was confirmed to be the main reaction pathways for the oxidation of ODVEN by ·OH. In addition, the oxidation of ODVEN may involve the demethylation, H-abstraction, OH-addition and C-N bond cleavage. Eventually, the UV-LED/SPC process was considered to be more cost-effective compared to the UV/SPC process, although the UV/SPC process possessed a higher removal rate of ODVEN.     

非稳态火源热释放速率等效合成模型研究

火源热释放速率的设定直接关系到火灾数值模拟与仿真的准确性.为研究多火源作用下的火灾热释放速率,通过对非稳态火源引起火灾的火势蔓延情况进行迭代分析,结合热辐射点燃机理,对单一火源引发其他可燃物共同燃烧的火灾建立了热释放速率等效合成模型,并通过对某型飞机客舱ULD内货物进行实例分析来加以验证.结果表明,等效合成模型的最大热释放速率受初始火源位置、可燃物的燃烧特性及其摆放位置的共同影响.     

爆炸气体(蒸气)最大试验安全间隙的试验方法研究

对可燃气体(或蒸气)最大试验安全间隙值的测定方法进行了研究,设计了一套测定可燃气体(或蒸气)与空气混合物混合爆炸的最大试验安全间隙值的装置,用其所测数据与IEC标准中的推荐数据具有较好的可比性,为爆炸性气体(或蒸气)的分级、分组以及隔爆型电气设备的设计提供了理论依据。