"鸟巢"演唱会人员疏散CA-BP仿真研究

针对现今大型活动中的人群踩踏事故频发问题,通过对"鸟巢"演唱会进行人流疏散仿真分析,研究紧急情况下人流疏散逃生规律及均衡疏散方法.通过设置人员速度、移动余值、出口逃生条件等因素扩展元胞自动机行人流模型,并借助Matlab语言实现可视化仿真模拟,以探究人流疏散逃生规律;引入疏散系数,并通过建立BP神经网络获取较优疏散系数,均衡各个出口所承担的疏散任务.结果表明,"鸟巢"演唱会在疏散过程中人群对通行出口的选择较为不合理,仿真疏散总时间长达455.5 s,与理想疏散曲线所得疏散总时间270.0s相比,存在40.7％的偏差,为减小此偏差引入出口疏散系数指导人群定向选择出口,通过仿真模拟得到的疏散总时间为312.0 s,减少约31.5％,出口选择不均衡现象被显著缓解.最后提出了针对疏散不平衡问题的相关措施.     

ALOHA在突发性大气污染事故中的应用

以天津市某化工厂液氨罐泄漏为背景,在氨泄漏后果分析的基础上,用ALOHA(有害大气区域定位)模拟软件对事故影响范围进行模拟,得到可能事故场景下的氨气扩散区域、闪火可燃区域和蒸气云爆炸超压影响区域,以及射火和BLEVE火球热辐射影响.结果表明,液氨爆炸和火灾事故中BLEVE事故造成的危害范围最大,其次是蒸气云、闪火,最后是射火.液氨泄漏扩散事故影响范围可达几千米,应针对不同伤害区域采取不同方式和不同程度的救援措施.     

A Bayesian network highlighting the linkages between landscape structure and the local economy: the case of agritourism in lowland areas of Northern Italy

Linking landscapes to socio-economic benefits necessarily requires considering the usability of landscape structure. To do so, however, depends on the interaction between users and producers of landscape-related services. We illustrate this interaction with a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in a case study analysing the connection between residents' perceptions of landscape structure and agritourism restaurants in the eastern lowlands of Ferrara (Italy). We use estimates of prior and conditional probabilities from a mix of different data: land use, survey data, regional statistics, and expert judgements to show the likely effects of the landscape structure on the local economy by using intermediate forms of services (i.e. second-order services). The second-order service is highly influenced by the agritourism density and by the frequency with which customers dine at agritourism restaurants and less by landscape attractiveness, confirming the importance of the supply and demand of second-order services in the provision of landscape-related services.     

Boater Perceptions of Environmental Issues Affecting Lakes in Northern Wisconsin

Understanding public perceptions of the importance of environmental issues is crucial for gauging support for management activities. I present a novel methodological approach to assess the importance boaters placed on 16 water issues in a lake‐rich region of northern Wisconsin. A latent class maximum difference conjoint model was used to examine the relationships between environmental concern and engagement with lake resources. Boaters were grouped to maximize observed heterogeneity in prioritizing issues of concern. Socio‐demographic characteristics, recreation specialization, place attachment, and attitudes concerning aquatic stewardship and invasive species management were then used to predict class membership. This modeling approach identified five groups whose perceptions of issues pertaining to lakes are influenced by their interactions with the lake environment. While anglers were most concerned about fishing quality, sightseers identified lakeshore development and loss of natural habitat. Groups also differed in their socio‐demographic and attitudinal characteristics. The priorities of each group were substantially different from those of the overall sample. Accounting for differences in stakeholders' environmental concerns may improve public involvement in water management initiatives by allowing managers to identify common concerns and prioritize important issues among multiple groups.     

Adaptive Targeting: Engaging Farmers to Improve Targeting and Adoption of Agricultural Conservation Practices

Targeting of agricultural conservation practices to cost‐effective locations has long been of interest to watershed managers, yet its implementation cannot succeed without meaningful engagement of agricultural producers who are decision makers on the lands they farm. In this study, we engaged 14 west‐central Indiana producers and landowners in an adaptive targeting experiment. Interviews carried out prior to targeting provided rich spatial information on existing conservation practices as well as producers' preferences for future conservation projects. We targeted six of the most accepted conservation practices using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and spatial optimization using a genetic algorithm approach. Fairly optimal conservation scenarios were possible with even the most limiting constraints of farmer‐accepted practices. We presented in follow‐up interviews a total of 176 conservation practice recommendations on 103 farm fields to 10 farmers whose lands were targeted for conservation. Primary findings indicated producers were interested in the project, were open to hearing recommendations about their lands, and expressed a high likelihood of adopting 35% of targeted recommendations. Farmers generally viewed the interview process and presentation of results quite favorably, and the interviews were found to build trust and make the targeting process more acceptable to them.     

A transportation-location problem model for pedestrian evacuation in chemical industrial parks disasters

A successful emergency management for chemical industrial parks (CIPs) accidents includes the route and shelter selection. Both of them are based on the collection of chemicals, atmosphere, geographic and population databases of CIPs. This decision process can be considered as a kind of transportation-location problem (TLP). In this paper, a conceptual model of emergency decision system for TLP of CIPs has been reported and a new multi-objective TLP model of pedestrian evacuation has also been proposed. The model includes sub-criteria, and the affected areas are categorized into a priority hierarchy based on human vulnerability model (HVM). The model can be used to design shelter places and guide the evacuation of the affected people. Besides, it can maximize the total time satisfaction level of evacuees combined with the routes passable probabilities. Finally, a case study shows that this model is flexible and applicable to various scenarios and risk measures.     

环境风险预警方法与应急成套装备的应用展望

介绍了环境风险预警方法建立的环境风险预警指标体系、环境风险源管理平台、环境风险源风险评估技术方法以及模块式应急成套装备的技术特点等;分析了环境风险预警方法与应急成套设备在危险化学品环境风险与应急管理,在区域大气环境挥发性有机污染物(VOCs)监控预警等方面的实际需求。面临现实的环境风险状况从环境风险防控与应急工程技术研究中心建设角度提出了需进一步完善、开发的环境风险预测预警技术与应急成套装备等新思路。     

有机微污染水磁混凝处理试验研究

实验以取自浙江湖州有机微污染水作为研究对象,研究了PAC,PFS,PAFC,KAl(SO4)2及FeCl3等常用混凝剂对该有机微污染水的CODMn的去除效果,结果表明PAC为处理该有机微污染水的最佳混凝剂,最佳投加量为30 mg/L。同时还研究了加载磁粉对有机微污染水混凝处理效果的影响,结果表明加载磁粉粒径为45μm,投加量为30 mg/L时,同一原水的CODMn去除率从常规混凝的39.3%提高到45.6%,且加载磁粉后大大缩短了混凝沉淀时间,符合微污染水源的应急处理要求,最佳投放顺序为：“磁粉+PAC+PAM”。     

化工园区水环境风险公共应急设施布局研究

重大事故状态下,单个化工企业的风险防控设施(应急池等)无法控制事故污水的情形下,整个化工园区的公共应急设施十分必要.在化工园区环境风险特征分析、突发事故次生水环境污染发生过程分析的基础上,提出建立整个化工园区的水环境风险三级防控体系,统一规划布局园区水环境风险公共应急设施,保障事故污水不出园区,根本上提高对事故污水的控制能力,最后以某临港化工园区进行案例分析.