昆明市建设项目环境影响评价公众参与现状研究

以昆明市为研究对象,深入分析现阶段环境影响评价公众参与中存在的主要问题,并提出改进的对策建议。     

考虑公众选择偏好的应急避难安置双阶段选址-分配模型

为使开放避难场所符合公众自行避难的实际情况,借鉴Huff模型量化公众选择行为,构建双阶段选址-分配模型,第1阶段确定开放避难场所位置,第2阶段将溢出容量的灾民二次分配到有剩余容量的避难场所,并利用改进粒子群算法进行求解。研究结果表明：双阶段选址-分配模型能够实现同一需求点灾民前往不同避难场所的过程,管理者干预政策能够使服务人数大幅度增加,避免资源浪费、灾民流离失所且二次分配情况主要依赖于第1阶段的结果。研究结果可为管理部门规划应急避难场所提供参考。     

Privatisation and outsourcing in wartime: the humanitarian challenges

The tendency today to privatise many activities hitherto considered the exclusive preserve of the state has given rise to sharp debate. The specific nature of humanitarian emergencies elucidates in particularly stark contrast some of the main challenges connected to the privatisation and outsourcing of essential public services, such as the provision of drinking water and health care. Privatising the realms of defence and security, which are at the very core of state prerogative, raises several legal and humanitarian concerns. This article focuses on the roles and responsibilities of the various parties involved in armed conflicts, especially those of private companies engaged in security, intelligence and interrogation work, and in the provision of water supply and health services. It highlights the need for humanitarian and development actors to grasp better the potential risks and opportunities related to privatisation and outsourcing with a view to supplying effective protection and assistance to communities affected by war.     

基于大数据挖掘技术的地震舆情感知研究

对地震舆情信息的深入感知和有效管理,能够保障社会和谐发展.提出一个基于大数据技术和深度学习的地震舆情感知平台,基于Hadoop和MongoDB大数据技术实现对海量实时地震舆情数据的处理和存储.基于Word2vec和LSTM的融合模型能够有效实现震后网民的情感识别,为舆情预警提供支持.以台湾5.8级地震舆情数据为例,对该...     

基于改进模体方法的国家应急组织合作网络基元比较

为分析和比较应对非常规突发事件过程中,由不同类型组织个体及其不同频次合作关系构成的应急复杂组织网络的微观结构特征,研究运用表征个体差异和关系强弱的改进模体分析方法,以中国和美国国家应急组织合作网络为例,比较分析其基元同构与异构特征。结果表明:中美应急组织系统不同类型的应急主导和支持组织构成的主要合作模式具有同构性,但子图结构数量分布具有异构性;考虑个体间关系频次差异,中美应急组织网络基元合作模式具有形式同构但相对数量分布异构的特征;比较而言,美国合作网络为分布式、分权化和关系型基元构型,中国合作网络具有集中式、集权化和契约型基元特征。     

突发事件下安全舆情的传播与演变——以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例

为明确突发事件安全舆情传播与演变路径,提高企业防控突发事件安全舆情传播风险能力,降低衍生灾害发生概率,在文献分析及事故致因理论基础上,构建突发事件安全舆情传播与演变过程的系统动力学（SD）模型,并运用Vensim软件对以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例进行仿真实验,模拟安全舆情传播与演变动态过程。结果表明:突发事件安全舆情传播与演变主要受事件自身、媒体、相关企业监管层、相关企业执行层4个主体的共同影响,其中事件自身因素起效时间最早,相关企业监管层影响作用最大、维持时间最持久,相关企业执行层影响最直接。     

Hierarchical pre-positioning of emergency resources for a chemical industrial parks concentrated area

Accidents in chemical industrial parks always cause fateful damage which can be reduced greatly by providing emergency resources sufficiently and timely. One effective way to enhance the emergency response capacity and agility is by pre-positioning of emergency resources for the potential accidents. The Yangtze River Delta of China is a large region where a large number of chemical industrial parks are concentrated. According to the distributing characteristics of demand points in this region, a mathematical model of hierarchical pre-positioning of emergency resources is proposed to ensure that accidents in all chemical industrial parks in this region can be responded timely and effectively. Considering accident domino effect and minimizing the total cost, the model gives optimal decisions of pre-positioning emergency resources, including the location and inventory of depots. The innovative hierarchical pre-positioning method greatly reduces the total cost in the premise of sufficient preparation for supplying emergency resources. Finally, in a visual graph of the Yangtze River Delta, the model is applied and the result shows its applicability.     

Location selection of emergency supplies repositories for emergency logistics management: A variable weighted algorithm

With the development of the city, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and if they are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances, the public safety will face great threats, which will bring great challenges to emergency rescue work. Therefore, providing reasonable solutions to the problem of location selection of emergency supplies repositories are necessary for improving the emergency response efficiency in chemical industrial parks. A mathematical model for location selection of emergency supplies repositories in emergency logistics management are presented considering more actual factors. The optimization objectives of the model are to minimize total transport length and cost. And then a Variable Weighted Algorithm is designed to solve the model, where an auxiliary function was constructed with different methods of building weighting factors based on the theory and method of solving multi-objective optimization problems in operational research. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the models and algorithms presented in this paper.     

Emergency shutdown of fluidized bed reaction systems

With several industrial applications of fluidized bed technology recently commercialized worldwide, it becomes essential to develop safe operation methods for fluidized bed reaction systems (FBRSs) to prevent any influence on their process values, which lead to accidents. To preventing any disaster or malfunction in an FBRS, an emergency shutdown system (ESD) is initiated, closing the reaction system in case of any abnormality by effectively isolating the flammable gas. However, an ESD is also prone to the “inactivation problem,” in which in the case of failure it initiates the emergency shutdown, even when the operating conditions of the reaction system are abnormal. It is also vulnerable to a “malfunction problem,” where the emergency shutdown is performed even when the operating conditions of the reaction system are normal. In this study, these problems were solved by investigating a reaction system through the monitoring of appropriate parameters and setting up of trigger levels, which reflect the uniqueness of an FBRS using an ESD. The parameters were identified by analyzing the scenario leading to an accident. The trigger levels were determined as the points at which the loss is smaller in the presence of an ESD, as compared to the value of the loss function in the presence or absence of an ESD. Furthermore, the ESD design model was applied as a case study in the ammoxidation process of propylene. The results showed that an ESD can prevent an approximately 8 billion yen of loss due to accidents in plant operations, against an investment of 200 million yen.     

突发性环境污染事故应急监测的措施分析

突发性环境污染事故会对环境造成较大的伤害,如果不能及时采取措施,就会使污染进一步扩大,不仅带来经济的损失,而且会破坏到生态的平衡。因此,要建立起突发环境污染事故的应急监测,这样才能尽可能的减少突发性环境污染事件的影响。基于此,本文从突发性环境污染事故的特征入手,首先分析其应急监测的意义,然后探究具体的措施,希望可以借此给突发性环境污染应急监测的相关研究提供一定的参考意见。