公众认知、感知价值与灾害气象服务满意度的关系研究——以深圳市3029份《公众气象安全认知度调查问卷》数据为例

目前从公众认知水平的角度出发,评价灾害气象服务满意度的文献较少。该文创新性地提出了公众气象认知这一概念,以深圳市3 029份公众气象安全认知度调查数据为例,采用结构方程模型,评估了公众认知、感知价值与灾害气象服务满意度之间的关系。研究发现,公众认知水平对灾害气象服务满意度的评价具有重要的影响。另外还发现:1深圳市公众对于气象服务总体评价良好,对台风期间的气象服务的满意度最高,而对气象预警信息获得的便捷性的满意度最低;2公众气象认知与灾害气象服务感知价值均显著影响公众对于灾害气象服务的满意度;3提高公众气象认知,可通过促进对气象服务价值的感知,进而提高公众的满意度。针对以上结论,给出了相应的政策建议。     

环境NGO介入环境公益诉讼的必要性和复杂性研究

环境NGO在环保活动中已成为不可忽视的重要力量.随着2015年中国新环保法的颁布,环境NGO已经具备发起环境公益诉讼的主体资格,但由于中国环境NGO自身能力不足,完成诉讼仍存在困难.文章以环境NGO介入环境公益诉讼活动为研究对象,研究了现有环保NGO介入环境公益诉讼的现模式,并分析了环保NGO介入环境公益诉讼的必要性与复杂性,指出要提升NGO介入环境公益诉讼的能力,必须从培育环境公益诉讼意识、加强自身能力改造及破解资金难题等方面着手.     

中国环境管理参与的研究现状、问题与对策研究

基于中国学术期刊网络版数据库,采用文献计量法,对中国440篇环境管理参与文献进行分析.结果表明,当前中国环境管理参与研究具有研究阶段性显著、期刊文献信息分布离散性与集中性并存、高校为研究主力军且高校间合作为主要合作形式、制度建构与创新是主要研究问题、多元协作成为研究新趋势、基金支持以单项基金为主、北京是文献产量和受基金资助最多的地区等特点.同时,中国环境管理参与研究存在研究成果少、期刊质量低、跨机构合作不足、研究深度浅、基金分布不均、研究"东强西弱"等问题.最后,与问题相对应提出相关建议.     

中国环保非政府组织（ENGO）发展初探

随着环境问题的日益严重，中国的环保非政府组织（ENGO）不断涌现和发展，成为保护生态资源、防治环境污染、唤起公民环保意识和促进公众参与的重要力量。然而，受诸多因素制约，中国ENGO的发展不尽如人意。因此分析中国ENGO的发展困境、探讨促进其发展的建议对于发挥ENGO的积极作用，促进可持续发展具有重要的意义。文章以厦门市绿十字环保志愿者中心为例，剖析了中国ENGO的发展困境及其产生的原因，并在此基础上探讨了改善中国ENGO发展的几点设想。     

高等学校公共安全教育研究

公共安全教育是高等学校教育职责与功能的重要体现。本文回顾了国内外高等学校关于公共安全教育的理论与实践，反思其经验与不足，旨在为我国高校开展公共安全教育的内容与模式提供参考。     

Conservation Science and Forest Service Policy for Roadless Areas

Abstract:  Questions persist regarding whether the science of conservation biology can successfully affect environmental decision making. One of the most prominent fields of intersection between conservation science and environmental policy is public-lands debates in the United States. I reviewed the role of conservation science in the roadless-area policies of the U.S. Forest Service. Since 1971, the Forest Service has systematically evaluated roadless areas on national forests three times, most recently during the Clinton administration's Roadless Area Conservation Review (1998–2000) ( U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service 2000b ). Drawing on the agency's environmental impact statements and supporting documents and the internal records of conservation organizations, I examined the changing goals, methodology, and outcome of roadless-area advocacy and policy. Since the 1970s, conservation science has successfully informed public and administrative concern for roadless-area protection. Conservation science has transformed public discourse regarding roadless areas and has changed the scope and rationale of national conservation organizations' goals for roadless-area policy from protecting some to protecting all remaining national forest roadless areas. The Forest Service has increasingly drawn on the lessons of conservation biology to justify its methodology and its administrative recommendations to protect roadless areas. The 2000 Roadless Area Conservation Review resulted in a recommendation to protect all remaining national forest roadless areas, up from 22% of roadless areas in the first roadless review. Despite the scientific merits of recent roadless-area advocacy and policy, however, such initiatives have faced political difficulties. The emphasis on large-scale, top-down, national approaches to conservation policy has rendered such policies politically problematic.     

Impacts of climatic change on water and natural hazards in the Alps: Can current water governance cope with future challenges? Examples from the European “ACQWA” project

This paper reviews the possible future situation of the Rhone River in the Swiss part of its catchment. Physical processes in the Alps govern the behaviour of the Rhone from its source (Rhone Glacier) to the Lake of Geneva, and substantial changes are expected to occur in the amount and seasonality of precipitation, and in the response of snow and glaciers to a warming climate. As a result, discharge in the alpine part of the Rhone River is likely to undergo an increase in winter and early spring, but strongly decreases from late spring to late autumn. These changes in water regimes will certainly be accompanied by more frequent geomorphic hazards, related to increases in heavy precipitation events and the melting of permanently frozen grounds. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, and agriculture, while shifts in extreme events will have an impact on the vulnerability of infrastructure and a range of economic sectors and services. Projections of the future course of events can help in advance planning and decision making in order to alleviate some of the more negative consequences of climate and hydrological impacts on key economic sectors in the region. This paper will thus discuss issues related to current and future water governance in the region, whether water-related policies are sufficiently robust today to cope with what may be rapid changes in water availability and water use in coming decades, and to resolve possible rivalries between economic sectors that may be increasingly confronted with problems of water availability at critical times of the year.     

Towards a coherent conceptual framework for emergency preparedness/response and rehabilitation – the application of the new ICRP recommendations given in ICRP 103

In the past, most emphasis in planning for and response to an emergency situation has been placed on selected protective measures in the early phase of an emergency to keep the doses received below levels where severe deterministic health effects can be excluded and/or where the risk of stochastic effects in the population is considered “acceptable”. Less emphasis has been placed on the development of comprehensive protection strategies which include considerations of the consequences of all exposure pathways and all phases, e.g. long-term rehabilitation. In its new publication 103, ICRP proposed a coherent conceptual framework for protection in all types of exposure situations including “emergency exposure situations” and “existing exposure situations”. In the context of developing protection strategies for these exposure situations, the Commission recommends that national authorities set reference levels between, typically, 20 mSv and 100 mSv annual effective dose (emergency exposure situation) and 1 mSv and 20 mSv (existing exposure situation). In order to optimise protection strategies, it is necessary to identify the dominant exposure pathways, the timescales over which the dose will be received, and the effectiveness of available protection options. The characteristics of the development and implementation of such protection strategies is described.     

核电厂人因事故预防的定量化决策

人因事故的分析与预防是核电厂安全运行和管理的重要内容。笔者提出的系统安全性层次分析法主要从两种角度考虑系统的安全性:专家能力权值和安全性矩阵的建立。采用专家判断矩阵确定事故原因对系统安全性的重要度排序。举例某核电厂事故定量分析进行说明,在对事故进行原因分析基础上,构建事故影响因素层次模型,利用层次分析法分析得出事故原因重要度排序由高到低依次为组织管理、操作人员、人机界面、培训与设备状态,并据此提出了相应的预防与改进措施,为安全性要求较高的复杂工业系统提供事故预防的定量化决策依据。