城市重大事故应急演习方法研究---演习目标及其评价准则

应急演习是城市开展重大事故应急准备过程的主要任务之一,应急演习目标是检查演习效果,评价应急组织、人员应急准备状态和能力的指标.本文介绍了可供选择的十八项演习目标和各项目标的评价准则,同时介绍了分组选择演习目标的方法.     

超高层建筑风致响应中的数据挖掘

超高层建筑的风致响应问题已经越来越受到人们的重视.应用数据挖掘技术对广州中信广场大厦的实测数据进行了分析,并对该原型实测风致响应中的时间序列数据进行了相似性挖掘,发现了一些特征和规律,对该问题的进一步研究具有一定的参考价值.     

高邮地磁台加卸载响应比与江苏及邻近地区的地震预测

研究分析了高邮地磁台1980～2001年观测资料的加卸载响应比异常与江苏及邻近地区ML5.0以上地震之间的关系,提出了适用于高邮地磁台的地震分析预报参数,并对其内检预报效能进行了评价。     

NEGOTIATING SCIENCE AND VALUES WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Current research in the Illinois River Basin is designed to develop and test a policy formulation protocol that will foster watershed management policy that is fully legitimated (i.e., policy that is technically effective, economically efficient, administratively implementable, politically feasible, and socially acceptable). This paper describes the results of the initial baseline impact assessment that includes physical, biological, economic, legal, and social systems as well as the development of a watershed management decision support system that is used to integrate technical information and analyses, and to facilitate policy maker and stakeholder negotiation workshops. Numerically modeled and visually simulated environmental impacts serve as the basis for developing alternative policy maker scenarios for prospective watershed management policies. These scenarios, which will be subjected to stakeholder review and negotiation, will undergo iterative review and amendment by policy makers and stakeholder groups to produce a recommended watershed management policy that satisfies all five substantive legitimation criteria. Preliminary results from the baseline social impact assessment indicate that fully legitimated policy is indeed obtainable.     

THE STRUCTURE AND PRACTICE OF WATER QUALITY TRADING MARKETS1

ABSTRACT: The use of transferable discharge permits in water pollution, what we will call water quality trading (WQT), is rapidly growing in the U.S. This paper reviews the current status of WQT nationally and discusses the structures of the markets that have been formed. Four main structures are observed in such markets: exchanges, bilateral negotiations, clearinghouses, and sole source offsets. The goals of a WQT program are environmental quality and cost effectiveness. In designing a WQT market, policy makers are constrained by legal restrictions and the physical characteristics of the pollution problem. The choices that must be made include how trading will be authorized, monitored and enforced. How these questions are answered will help determine both the extent to which these goals are achieved, and the market structures that can arise. After discussing the characteristics of different market structures, we evaluate how this framework applies in the case of California's Grassland Drainage Area Tradable Loads Program.     

风场类型对高层建筑风致响应的影响研究

风荷载是影响高层建筑安全性的重要因素之一,而不同的风环境会对高层建筑的风致响应存在不同程度的影响,基于此背景,本文通过高层建筑多自由度气动弹性模型风洞试验,获得了结构原始加速度时程曲线,采用随机减量法对其气动阻尼进行识别,分析了风场类型对高层建筑气动阻尼比和风致加速度响应的影响。结果表明:横风向气动阻尼比随折减风速的变化起伏较大,顺风向气动阻尼比随折减风速的增大而增大;折减风速小于特定值时,地貌类型对气动阻尼影响较小;随着风场类型从A类变化为D类,结构横、顺风向的气动阻尼比的变化趋势趋于平缓,气动阻尼比的正峰值减小,正峰值风速增大。高层建筑横风向的加速度响应大于顺风向;风场类型从A类变化为D类的过程中,横、顺风向的加速度响应均减小。风向角对气动阻尼比和加速度响应均存在较明显的影响。     

唐山中厚板厂污水处理回用工程的财务分析

探讨了项目财务评价结果和项目敏感性分析技术的应用方法,为某公司唐山中厚板厂污水处理回用项目融资方案和运营方案的决策提供依据.介绍了唐山中厚板材有限公司废水回收利用工程项目概况;确定了该项目的基础数据,进行财务分析,这是进行后续敏感性分析的基础.对此项目进行敏感性分析,找出影响该项目收益的敏感性因素,为该项目执行时的风险管理提供一定依据.     

突发性环境污染事故风险管理进展

在介绍突发性环境污染事故的概念、类型与特性的基础上,综述了近年来国内外风险管理的进展。要对突发性环境污染事故进行风险管理,需要有组织的风险管理体系和风险管理计划。风险管理计划应当包括危害的风险评价、预防和应急反应三部分内容。文中详细阐述了突发性环境污染事故的预防、应急处理与对策、善后处理与影响评价的主要内容和方法。     

Adaptive response criteria in road hazard detection among older drivers

Objectives: The majority of existing investigations on attention, aging, and driving have focused on the negative impacts of age-related declines in attention on hazard detection and driver performance. However, driving skills and behavioral compensation may accommodate for the negative effects that age-related attentional decline places on driving performance. In this study, we examined an important question that had been largely neglected in the literature linking attention, aging, and driving: can top-down factors such as behavioral compensation, specifically adaptive response criteria, accommodate the negative impacts from age-related attention declines on hazard detection during driving?

Methods: In the experiment, we used the Drive Aware Task, a task combining the driving context with well-controlled laboratory procedures measuring attention. We compared younger (n = 16, age 21–30) and older (n = 21, age 65–79) drivers on their attentional processing of hazards in driving scenes, indexed by percentage of correct responses and reaction time of hazard detection, as well as sensitivity and response criteria using signal detection analysis.

Results: Older drivers, in general, were less accurate and slower on the task than younger drivers. However, results from this experiment revealed that older, but not younger, drivers adapted their response criteria when the traffic condition changed in the driving scenes. When there was more traffic in the driving scene, older drivers became more liberal in their responses, meaning that they were more likely to report that a driving hazard was detected.

Conclusions: Older drivers adopt compensatory strategies for hazard detection during driving. Our findings showed that, in the driving context, even at an older age our attentional functions are still adaptive according to environmental conditions. This leads to considerations on potential training methods to promote adaptive strategies that may help older drivers maintain performance in road hazard detection.     

基于数量视角的耕地保护政策绩效评价

耕地保护政策的绩效评价是我国粮食安全及土地调控的重要课题。本文基于数量保护的视角,采用数据包络分析法(DataEnvelopment Analysis,简称DEA)评价了我国2000-2007年的耕地保护政策绩效,测度对象主要为耕地总量动态平衡、土地用途管制、耕地执法监管政策。研究结果显示,耕地保护政策在数量保护上具有总体效率高(2002年除外)、规模效率递增或保持、纯技术效率高的表征,但是,规模效率、纯技术效率与总体效率不能很好拟合且三项效率的综合具有分层性,只有耕地总量动态平衡达到了最佳产出。进而得出结论:2000-2007年,耕地保护政策取得了耕地总量平衡、耕地基本数量维持、建设占用耕地趋缓、耕地违法减少的显著效果,然而,耕地保护政策绩效的年度差异、政策时滞及体制等影响因素的复杂、投入和产出的部分饱和亦表明绩效的不充分。为促进我国耕地保护政策绩效的提升,提出强化土地利用总体规划作用、建立耕地保护责任制度等建议,并对进一步研究作了展望。