A CFD-based empirical model for hazardous area extent prediction including wind effects

Hazardous extent predictions that ensure process safety while avoiding overestimation have been a challenge for hazardous area classification. Specific leak scenarios can be addressed to build rapid empirical models to accurately determine hazardous extent considering several factors that are not included in general approaches. In view of that, this work aims to propose a novel CFD-based empirical model for gas emissions in open and unobstructed areas. It considers a wide range of variables such as storage temperature and pressure, orifice diameter, molecular weight, gas concentration, and wind velocity. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate each variable's contribution to the gas cloud extent. The linear regression model resulting from the combination of all variables contribution was coupled with Ewan and Moddie's model to minimize the prediction errors due to the non-monotonic wind effects. The suggested algorithm accurately calculates the hazardous extent with a coefficient of determination equals to 0.9842 and a RMSE of 0.0151 for a dataset of 600 cases of generic gases release. The proposed model was also validated for 60 cases of hydrogen releases under different storage conditions, giving a coefficient of determination equal to 0.9829 and a RMSE of 0.0680, indicating a good agreement with the data.     

Emergy algebra: Improving matrix methods for calculating transformities

Transformity is one of the core concepts in Energy Systems Theory and it is fundamental to the calculation of emergy. Accurate evaluation of transformities and other emergy per unit values is essential for the broad acceptance, application and further development of emergy methods. Since the rules for the calculation of emergy are different from those for energy, particular calculation methods and models have been developed for use in the emergy analysis of networks, but double counting errors still occur because of errors in applying these rules when estimating the emergies of feedbacks and co-products. In this paper, configurations of network energy flows were classified into seven types based on commonly occurring combinations of feedbacks, splits, and co-products. A method of structuring the network equations for each type using the rules of emergy algebra, which we called “preconditioning” prior to calculating transformities, was developed to avoid double counting errors in determining the emergy basis for energy flows in the network. The results obtained from previous approaches, the Track Summing Method, the Minimum Eigenvalue Model and the Linear Optimization Model, were reviewed in detail by evaluating a hypothetical system, which included several types of interactions and two inputs. A Matrix Model was introduced to simplify the calculation of transformities and it was also tested using the same hypothetical system. In addition, the Matrix Model was applied to two real case studies, which previously had been analyzed using the existing method and models. Comparison of the three case studies showed that if the preconditioning step to structure the equations was missing, double counting would lead to large errors in the transformity estimates, up to 275 percent for complex flows with feedback and co-product interactions. After preconditioning, the same results were obtained from all methods and models. The Matrix Model reduces the complexity of the Track Summing Method for the analysis of complex systems, and offers a more direct and understandable link between the network diagram and the matrix algebra, compared with the Minimum Eigenvalue Model or the Linear Optimization Model.     

新型高阶Boussinesq方程的一维数值模型及其实验验证

基于刘忠波等(2004)推导的新型高阶Boussinesq方程,建立了预报-校正差分格式的数值模型。为考察该数值模型的适用性,针对较大坡度的潜堤上的波浪传播变形进行了数值研究。将数值结果与实验结果进行比较,二者较为吻合,验证了本文的数值模型,同时也说明本方程可用于模拟较陡地形的波浪变形。     

沙尘暴对暴露儿童健康效应的研究

为了研究沙尘暴对儿童可能造成的急性危害,以沙尘暴源区——甘肃省武威市的某2所小学3～5年级的1040名学生(年龄8～14岁)为研究对象,在2004年和2005年的3～5月沙尘暴频发期间进行健康状况问卷调查,共调查4场沙尘暴事件,所调查的症状有咳嗽、咯痰、气短、肺部喘鸣、胸部憋闷、咽干口苦、眼睛干涩、流泪、流涕、打喷嚏、心情压抑等11种常见的症状.结果表明,沙尘暴发生当天(滞后0d)儿童各种所查症状发生的相对危险度(RR)均有不同程度地升高,沙尘暴过后(滞后1～5d),儿童各种症状的RR逐渐降低,沙尘暴过后4d(滞后4d),几乎所有症状均恢复正常.暴露儿童在沙尘暴发生当天,除肺部喘鸣和胸部憋闷发生的RR升高不显著外(p>0.05),其他所查症状发生的RR均有显著性升高(p<0.05,p<0.01,p<0.001).沙尘暴过后虽然各种症状RR均有所下降,但下降速度不同:在滞后1～2d,气短、眼睛干涩、流泪和心情压抑等4种症状RR仍显著高于沙尘暴前,直到滞后3d才恢复到正常水平;而咳嗽、咯痰、咽干口苦和打喷嚏等4种症状RR在滞后4d才恢复正常;流涕症状RR在滞后5d才基本恢复正常.不同年度和不同时期的沙尘暴事件对儿童健康症状的影响有所不同.从以上结果可以看出:沙尘暴对儿童的健康既有当日急性效应又有一定的短期滞后效应.     

Sedimentary radioactive tracers and diffusive models

This paper examines the underlying assumptions and consequences of applying a steady-state equation to sediment profiles of radioactive tracers in order to deconvolute sedimentation from bioturbation processes modelled as a diffusive type process.Several factors follow immediately from this investigation:

(i)

if the observed radioactive concentration increases with depth over any finite depth range then the proposed steady-state, constant flux equation is not applicable. Any increase in radioactive concentration with depth implies a negative mixing coefficient which is a physical impossibility;

(ii)

when the radioactive concentration systematically decreases with increasing sedimentary depth then solutions to the steady-state conservation equation exist only when either the constant solid state flux to the sediment surface is small enough so that a positive mixing coefficient results or when the mixing coefficient is small enough so that a positive flux results.

If the radioactive concentration, porosity and/or density of the solid phase are such that the proposed equation is inappropriate (because no physically acceptable solution exists) then one must abandon the proposed steady-state equation.Further: if the flux of solid sediment to the sediment surface varies with time then, of course, a steady-state conservation equation is also inappropriate.Simple examples illustrate that the assumption of steady-state restricts the applicability of this modelling approach to a relatively small sub-set of expected situations in the real world.     

Comparison of some atmospheric chemical modeling schemes

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水工隧洞岩溶涌水的水文法计算

在总结数个不同类型水工隧洞岩溶涌水实例的基础上,提出了采用水文参数计算水工隧洞岩溶涌水的新方法,即利用同地区岩溶管道水及中小河流实测得到的最大径流模数,或据常年日暴雨计算得到的径流模数,乘以不同的折减系数来计算隧洞岩溶涌水量。折减系数考虑了岩溶管道与水工隧洞的接触关系、岩溶管道水的补给及出流特征,并提出了相应的经验值。     

Removal process estimation of population size for a population with a known sex ratio

A removal model for estimating population size which uses the known population sex ratio is studied. A maximum likelihood estimate and an optimal martingale estimate of the population size are proposed. Their standard errors and large sample properties are obtained. Simulation studies are reported, and the performance of the proposed estimators are compared with the standard maximum likelihood estimator which ignores the sex ratio information. An example on a capture study of deer mice is given.     

Estimation of total sediment load concentration obtained by experimental study using artificial neural networks

Estimation of sediment concentration in rivers is very important for water resources projects planning and managements. The sediment concentration is generally determined from the direct measurement of sediment concentration of river or from sediment transport equations. Direct measurement is very expensive and cannot be conducted for all river gauge stations. However, sediment transport equations do not agree with each other and require many detailed data on the flow and sediment characteristics. The main purpose of the study is to establish an effective model which includes nonlinear relations between dependent (total sediment load concentration) and independent (bed slope, flow discharge, and sediment particle size) variables. In the present study, by performing 60 experiments for various independent data, dependent variables were obtained, because of the complexity of the phenomena, as a soft computing method artificial neural networks (ANNs) which is the powerful tool for input–output mapping is used. However, ANN model was compared with total sediment transport equations. The results show that ANN model is found to be significantly superior to total sediment transport equations.     

Most Influential Parameters for the Bed-Load Sediment Flux Equations Used in Alluvial Rivers1

Khorram, Saeed and Mustafa Ergil, 2010. Most Influential Parameters for the Bed-Load Sediment Flux Equations Used in Alluvial Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA): 46(6):1065–1090. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00468.x Abstract: Problems of bed-load sediment transport equations in alluvial rivers are addressed in this study where user-friendly parameters were developed. To determine the influences of 300 parameters on the final result, 52 selected bed-load equations for noncohesive particles (sand and gravel separately) were gathered and individually investigated. The influences of discrepancies among the computed and measured datasets were obtained by sensitivity analysis through multilinear regression method. The most influential parameters for the bed-load sediment flux equations used to describe sand particles in alluvial rivers are: the gravitational power due to Shields’ parameter with an energy slope, the universal stream power due to critical Shields’ parameter with an energy slope, the Shields’ parameter ratio, the critical unit stream power, and the Shields’ parameter with energy slope. For gravel particles, the most influential parameters are: the universal stream power due to critical Shields’ parameter with an energy slope, the Shields’ parameter ratio, the gravitational power due to Shields’ parameter with an energy slope, the Shields’ parameter with an energy slope, and the Froude number of the channel. It is expected that researchers working in this field will be able to use these predicted parameters to generate new bed-load sediment flux equations that give results that more closely agree with the actual values measured in alluvial rivers.