环境影响评价中公众参与的实证分析

结合环境影响评价中公众参与的范围与对象选择.参与方式、参与程序、参与内容、公众意见反馈说明等方面的阐述,通过实证分析指出了值得注意的问题.从强化公众参与意识、增加听取意见途径、出台公众环境权益受损的补偿法规等方面,提出了改进环境影响评价中公众参与的建议.     

Hierarchical modeling of the dilute transport of suspended sediment in open channels

We propose, discuss and validate a theoretical and numerical framework for sediment-laden, open-channel flows which is based on the two-fluid-model (TFM) equations of motion. The framework models involve mass and momentum equations for both phases (sediment and water) including the interactive forces of drag, lift, virtual mass and turbulent dispersion. The developed framework is composed by the complete two-fluid model (CTFM), a partial two-fluid model (PTFM), and a standard sediment-transport model (SSTM). Within the umbrella of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, we apply K–ε type closures (standard and extended) to account for the turbulence in the carrier phase (water). We present the results of numerical computations undertaken by integrating the differential equations over control volumes. We address several issues of the theoretical models, especially those related to coupling between the two phases, interaction forces, turbulence closure and turbulent diffusivities. We compare simulation results with various recent experimental datasets for mean flow variables of the carrier as well as, for the first time, mean flow of the disperse phase and turbulence statistics. We show that most models analyzed in this paper predict the velocity of the carrier phase and that of the disperse phase within 10% of error. We also show that the PTFM provides better predictions of the distribution of sediment in the wall-normal direction as opposed to the standard Rousean profile, and that the CTFM is by no means superior to the PTFM for dilute mixtures. We additionally report and discuss the values of the Schmidt number found to improve the agreement between predictions of the distribution of suspended sediment and the experimental data.     

Simulation model of universal law of school size distribution applied to southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the Great Australian Bight

A universal law of animal group size distribution correlates well to observed fish school size distribution from fisheries catch data. I applied the law to fisheries independent aerial survey data of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) collected over a 10-year period in the Great Australian Bight. The law does not correlate to the observed school size distribution. A computer model originally demonstrated the formation of the universal law from simple rules. I redesigned this model as an individual-based simulation model calibrated from acoustic tag observations and state a mathematical formula for a resultant new family of transient group size distributions. The new formula correlates accurately to the simulation and to the aerial survey data. I use the mathematical model to estimate area of aggregation and total abundance. This approach is new as it does not seek stationary states of group size distribution and because it demonstrates a quantitative relationship between individual behaviour and group size distribution. This work elevates the pattern of group size distribution from a curiosity to a useful tool, and introduces a new family of transient distributions that may have a general application to other grouping phenomena.     

Evaluation of various global solar radiation models for Nigeria

This study assessed the performance of six solar radiation models. The objective was to determine the most accurate model for estimating global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Nigeria. Twenty-two years meteorological data sets collected from the Nigerian Meteorological agency and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for the three regions, covering the entire climatic zones in Nigeria were utilized for calibrating and validating the selected models for Nigeria. The accuracy and applicability of various models were determined for three locations (Abuja, Benin City, and Sokoto), which spread across Nigeria using seven viable statistical indices. This study found that the estimation results of considered models are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, but their accuracy varies from one location to another. However, the multivariable regression relationship deduced in terms of sunshine ratio, air temperature ratio, maximum air temperature, and cloudiness performs better than other relationships. The multivariable relationship has the least root mean square error and mean absolute bias error, not exceeding 1.0854 and 0.8160 MJ m^?2 day^?1, respectively, and monthly relative percentage error in the range of ± 12% for the study areas.     

经验正交函数方法和TRMM数据对长江流域降水模式与极端水文过程的研究

气候变化加剧了极端天气和水文事件的发生,降水是区域干旱与洪水事件最直接驱动因素。以TRMM/PR月累积降水反演遥感数据为基础,利用经验正交函数EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）方法对长江流域降水时空变化模式进行提取,并对比分析了主要模式振幅强弱与极端水文事件的对应关系。结果表明在流域尺度上EOF方法及TRMM/PR数据可以较好地识别降水主要模式,通过时空尺度变换成功揭示主要降水模式强弱与流域极端水文事件的对应关系。鉴于日益丰富的巨量水文气象时空数据,EOF方法在模式提取、水文模拟、极端事件预估及灾害适应性研究等方面具有应用潜力     

Soil radium, soil gas radon and indoor radon empirical relationships to assist in post-closure impact assessment related to near-surface radioactive waste disposal

Least squares (LS), Theil’s (TS) and weighted total least squares (WTLS) regression analysis methods are used to develop empirical relationships between radium in the ground, radon in soil and radon in dwellings to assist in the post-closure assessment of indoor radon related to near-surface radioactive waste disposal at the Low Level Waste Repository in England. The data sets used are (i) estimated ²²⁶Ra in the <2 mm fraction of topsoils (eRa226) derived from equivalent uranium (eU) from airborne gamma spectrometry data, (ii) eRa226 derived from measurements of uranium in soil geochemical samples, (iii) soil gas radon and (iv) indoor radon data. For models comparing indoor radon and (i) eRa226 derived from airborne eU data and (ii) soil gas radon data, some of the geological groupings have significant slopes. For these groupings there is reasonable agreement in slope and intercept between the three regression analysis methods (LS, TS and WTLS). Relationships between radon in dwellings and radium in the ground or radon in soil differ depending on the characteristics of the underlying geological units, with more permeable units having steeper slopes and higher indoor radon concentrations for a given radium or soil gas radon concentration in the ground. The regression models comparing indoor radon with soil gas radon have intercepts close to 5 Bq m⁻³ whilst the intercepts for those comparing indoor radon with eRa226 from airborne eU vary from about 20 Bq m⁻³ for a moderately permeable geological unit to about 40 Bq m⁻³ for highly permeable limestone, implying unrealistically high contributions to indoor radon from sources other than the ground. An intercept value of 5 Bq m⁻³ is assumed as an appropriate mean value for the UK for sources of indoor radon other than radon from the ground, based on examination of UK data. Comparison with published data used to derive an average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra ratio shows that whereas the published data are generally clustered with no obvious correlation, the data from this study have substantially different relationships depending largely on the permeability of the underlying geology. Models for the relatively impermeable geological units plot parallel to the average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra model but with lower indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra ratios, whilst the models for the permeable geological units plot parallel to the average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra model but with higher than average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra ratios.     

Imputing Unmeasured Explanatory Variables in Environmental Epidemiology With Application to Health Impact Analysis of Air Pollution

This paper presents the results of a reconsideration of earlier work that finds an association between daily hospital admissions for respiratory distress and daily concentrations of sulphate (lag 1) as well as daily maximum concentrations of ozone (lags 1 and 3). These associations are found even after clustering the data by hospital of admission and accounting for the effects of temperature. We use an adaptation of their generalized estimating equation technique for clustered data, that daily data being for southern Ontario summers from 1983 to 1988. Like them, we adjust for daily maximum temperatures. However, unlike the earlier work returned to ours includes daily average humidity as a potential explanatory variable in our model. Our analysis also differs from theirs in that we cluster the data by census subdivision to reduce the risk of confounding pollutant levels with population size within regions. Moreover, we log-transform the explanatory variables and then high-pass filter the resulting data. We also deviate from the earlier analysis by taking account of measurement error incurred in using surrogate measures of the explanatory variables. To do so we use new methodology designed for our study but of potential value in other applications. That methodology requires a spatial predictive distribution for the unmeasured explanatory variables. Each day about 700 missing measurements for each of these variables can then be imputed over the geographical domain of the study. With these imputations we get a measure of imputation error through the covariance of the predictive distribution. Along with the predictive distribution we require an impact model to link-up with the predictive distribution. We describe that model and show how it uses the imputed measurements of the missing values of the explanatory variables. We also show how through that model, uncertainty about these values is reflected in our analysis and in commensurate uncertainties in the inferences made. Apart from its substantive objectives, our analysis serves to test the new methods with the earlier results serving as a foil. The reassuring qualitative agreement between our findings and the earlier results seems encouraging.     

30Cr2MoV汽轮机转子钢动电位阳极极化行为研究

通过比较30Cr2MoV汽轮转子钢分别在苦味酸溶液和硫酸酒精溶液中动电位阳极极化行为,发现在2种腐蚀液中建立的3个不同的FATT预测模型拟合误差分别为±20 ℃、±25 ℃和±15 ℃,后一种溶液要精确一些.而且在安全性方面,硫酸酒精溶液要比苦味酸安全许多.     

正交曲线坐标下Boussinesq方程的研究

从质量守恒方程和Euler方程出发,推导出包含底摩擦耗能、波浪破碎效应和亚格湍流效应的改进型Boussinesq方程,并对该方程以及边界条件进行了正交曲线转换,建立了正交曲线坐标系下的二维波浪模型并用实验地形对本文模型进行了验证,计算结果与实测数据吻合很好,说明模型可以较好地模拟波浪传播过程中的浅水变形、折射、绕射和反射等现象.     

Who should wear mask against airborne infections? Altering the contact network for controlling the spread of contagious diseases

There are several ways of controlling the propagation of a contagious disease. For instance, to reduce the spreading of an airborne infection, individuals can be encouraged to remain in their homes and/or to wear face masks outside their domiciles. However, when a limited amount of masks is available, who should use them: the susceptible subjects, the infective persons or both populations? Here we employ susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations and probabilistic cellular automata in order to investigate how the deletion of links in the random complex network representing the social contacts among individuals affects the dynamics of a contagious disease. The inspiration for this study comes from recent discussions about the impact of measures usually recommended by health public organizations for preventing the propagation of the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus. Our answer to this question can be valid for other eco-epidemiological systems.