输油管道静电放电形式及危害防护研究

油品管输过程中产生的静电是影响油料安全运输的主要危险源之一。总结了输油管道静电起电的宏观和微观过程及影响管道带电的因素,根据各种静电放电类型的发生条件以及金属、绝缘管道(软管、胶管)自身特性,分析得出金属管道的放电形式主要是电晕放电和火花放电,而绝缘管道的放电形式主要是火花放电和刷形放电。针对金属管道和绝缘管道输油作业中可能发生的静电危害事故,从油品进入管道前、管道中及其他如温湿度控制等3方面提出了一系列防护措施。     

Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk‐prone small Caribbean islands

Post‐catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004—with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases—regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric‐based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives‐based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.     

Climate change,natural hazards,and risk perception: the role of proximity and personal experience

Understanding public risk perception related to possible consequences of climate change is of paramount importance. Not only does risk perception have an important role in shaping climate policy, it is also central in generating support for initiatives for adaptation and mitigation. In order to influence public knowledge and opinion, there is a need to know more about why people have diverging attitudes and perceptions related to climate change and its possible consequences. By using representative survey data for Norway and multivariate analysis, the authors of this article show that differences in attitudes and perceptions are partially explained by factors such as gender, educational background, and people's political preferences. However, an important factor explaining people's perception of climate change and its possible consequences is their direct personal experience of damage caused by climate-related events such as flooding or landslide. Furthermore, the results show that personal experience of damage has the largest impact on the respondents' belief that there will be more natural-resource hazards locally than in Norway or globally. The results also show that merely living in a more exposed area but not having a personal experience of damage does not affect the respondents' concern towards climate change.     

地下水污染风险评价中特征污染物量化方法探讨

针对地下水污染风险评价中的外界胁迫脆弱性评价缺乏有效量化体系这一问题,通过地下水污染源解析,提出了基于特征污染物及其对应排放量的量化体系;通过特征污染物属性解析及利用层次分析法确定研究侧重点,构建了该体系中的特征污染物量化方法.将该量化方法应用于北京市地下水污染风险评价,结果表明,依据不同研究侧重点得出的3种特征污染物危害性计算结果具有明显差异,并且3种危害性排序与对应的3种属性排序亦存在差异.由此表明,确定研究侧重点的主观倾向对特征污染物危害性计算结果有决定性影响.此外,在计算过程中,以序列值的方式解决3种属性的归一化及不同类别特征污染物属性量化结果的统一,会造成不同特征污染物之间相对属性特征的放大或缩小.     

干水在热环境中的持续作用效果研究*

为研究干水对建筑火灾中高聚物燃烧产生的热危害和烟气危害的影响,采用火焰传播量热仪（FPA）模拟建筑火灾扑灭后的持续热环境,对灭火过程中过量施加的干水对可燃高聚物的持续作用效果进行研究。结果表明:干水能够明显提升可燃物的抗复燃性能以及削弱燃烧过程中的热危害和烟气危害;相比于纯燃料,干水作用下可燃物的点燃时间出现明显的延迟,并且热释放速率和一氧化碳生成速率明显降低,尤其在可燃物燃烧初期,干水还具有显著的抑制烟气生成速率的效果。研究结果可为灾后消防人员的搜救和被困人员的逃生提供一种新的技术方案。     

基于GIS的广西洪涝灾害孕灾环境敏感性评估

以灾害学理论为基础,GIS、RS为技术支持,利用1:5万基础地理信息数据、TM遥感影像数据,建立广西洪涝灾害孕灾环境敏感性评估指标体系;采用加权综合评价法计算洪涝灾害孕灾环境敏感性指数;运用自然断点法将广西洪涝孕灾环境敏感性划分为低敏感区、次低敏感区、中敏感区、次高敏感区、高敏感区等5个区域;用广西历史洪涝灾害频率分布数据进行对比验证。结果表明,敏感区划结果与洪涝灾害频率区划结果基本吻合。     

作业场所中纳米材料潜在职业危害危险度评价

通过比较纳米材料与常规材料风险评价方法的差异,在综合国内外研究的基础上,分析了作业场所纳米材料潜在健康危害及其影响因素,从危害发生的可能性与严重度两方面进行评价,建立危险度模糊综合评价模型,确定危险度评价等级。运用模糊综合评价方法对纳米材料潜在健康风险进行综合评估,根据评价结果采取控制措施,避免和减少作业场所纳米材料可能对健康带来的风险。     

拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的毒性和健康危害研究进展

在现今世界范围内,拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂已被广泛应用于防治农业病虫害以及用作室内杀虫剂,因此对人类日常生活产生重要影响。拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的急性毒性研究已经有较多成果和进展,但对其长期慢性影响至今仍缺乏明确论证。此综述从Pub Med、EBSCO和中国知网等数据库收集了国内外已发表的、有关拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的动物实验、人群调查和实验室检验的长期、慢性影响的典型研究论文,并从中筛选出拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的神经毒性、生殖发育毒性、免疫毒性与肿瘤研究等方面的研究进展,综述长期接触拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂可能对人体产生的神经、生殖及免疫系统方面的危害,为进一步研究和开发无害化农药杀虫剂提供参考思路。     

Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust Islands—a knowledge base for coastal hazards management

The objective of this study is to provide an improved climatology of sea level extremes on seasonal and long-term time scales for Hawaii and the U.S-Trust islands. Observations revealed that the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust islands, by and large, display a strong annual cycle. For estimating the statistics of return period, the three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted using the method of L-moments. In the context of extremes (20- to 100-year return periods), the deviations in most of the Hawaiian Islands (except at Nawiliwili and Hilo) displayed a moderate sea-level rise (i.e., close to 200 mm), but the deviations in the U.S.-Trust islands displayed a considerably higher rise (i.e., more than 300 mm) in some seasons due to typhoon-related storm surges. This rise may cause damage to roads, harbors, and unstable sandy beaches. Correlations between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and the variability of seasonal sea level have been investigated. Results show that correlation for the station located west of the International Date Line (DL) is strong, but it is moderate or even weaker for stations east of the DL. The skill of SST-based Canonical Correlation Analyses (CCA) forecasts was found to be weak to moderate (0.4–0.6 for Honolulu, Kahului, Hilo, and Wake, and 0.3 or below for Kahului, Mokuoloe, and Johnston). Finally, these findings are synthesized for evaluating the potential implications of sea level variability in these islands.