地下水封石洞油库岩爆灾害预测评估——以某地下水封石洞油库实际工程为例

地下水封石洞油库属于大型地下工程,岩爆灾害是施工过程中可能引发的地质灾害之一。本文以某地下水封石洞油库实际为例,介绍了建设场地地质灾害危险性评估中岩爆灾害预测方法。借鉴目前国内外岩爆判别的主要方法,并依据拟建工程场地实际情况,选用岩体初始应力及岩石单轴抗压强度作为定量评估指标,对岩爆灾害进行预测评估。根据宏观分析与定量评价结合的方法最终确定岩爆灾害程度。     

室内氡的危害及防氡降氡措施

氡及其子体是铀、钍等放射性元素产物，是引发肺癌的重要致病因子。居室高氡浓度易造成氡危害。不同地段房间的氡有不同的来源途径，它包括了氡的产生、向地表运移和进入室内的过程。本文将从室内氡的危害、致癌机理、氡的来源及防氡降氡等几个方面探讨居室氡的危害及其防治措施。     

Pollution by halogenated aromatic compounds at Trissino: A case study of groundwater contamination and rehabilitation

An investigation is presented on industrial contamination by benzotrifluoride percolation into ground water used for drinking water, in a populated area of 20 km² at Trissino, north Italy, due to improper chemical waste disposal. Hydrogeological features of the situation are reported, as well as the emergency action taken, such as the surveys made and their analytical results. The epidemiology of the emergency is examined and rehabilitation measures are presented and discussed. Fortunately no major ecological or social disaster occurred, In part thanks to the speed and efficiency with which the affair was handled. It is notable that the authorities kept the public duly informed and thus retained their confidence.     

Bayesian Joint Estimation of Binary Outcome and Time-to-event Data: Effects of Leaf Quality on Pupal Survival and Time-to-Emergence in the Winter Moth

Plant–herbivore interactions are complex and affect herbivore fitness components and life history traits in many different ways. In this paper, we present results from an experiment studying the effects of leaf quality on pupal survival and duration of pupation (as measured by time-to-emergence) in the winter moth. Because only surviving pupae are at risk of emerging, analysis of time-to-emergence should exclude the dead pupae. However, due to right censoring, the survival status could not be determined for each individual. This failure to determine the group of moths at risk of emerging a priori motivated the development of a joint model of both survival probability and time-to-emergence. We formulate the model in a Bayesian framework and apply Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) to obtain posterior distributions. Time-to-emergence is modeled by a Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model where only the surviving pupae are at risk of emergence. Probability of pupal survival was modeled by a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM). The censored individuals were included in the analysis as a missing value in the GLMM. The GLMM then generated prior distributions of survival probabilties—and thus of the probability of being at risk of emergence—for these 19 individuals, conditional on the model parameters. The CPH model was formulated as a count process and the binary frailty was incorporated as a zero-inflated Poisson model. Zeros in this model represent the non-survivors. Leaf quality did not appear to influence time-to-emergence. Pupal survival was affected in a complex and unexpected way showing opposite effects in males and females. We also explored the robustness of our model against increased levels of censoring. While the degree of censoring was low in our study (< 1%), we artificially increased it to 67%. Although further study is required to study the generality of these results in a theoretical framework, our explorations suggest that the newly proposed technique may be widely applicable in a variety of situations where the identification of the at risk population cannot be done in a straightforward way. Received: January 2005 / Revised: June 2005     

金属离子对双氧水热稳定性的影响研究

为了研究金属离子对双氧水在绝热条件下分解特性的影响,利用泄放尺寸设计装置VSP2模拟双氧水及分别掺杂0.01%质量分数Fe~(2+)、Fe~(3+)、Gu~(2+)的双氧水在绝热条件下的反应失控过程,得到绝热分解过程的热力学和动力学参数,依此推算出该4种试样25 kg包装下的自加速分解温度SADT,以及绝热条件下到达最大反应速率的时间TMRad。结果表明,Fe~(2+)、Fe~(3+)、Gu~(2+)使双氧水的起始分解温度T0、SADT、TMRad均降低,提高了双氧水的热危险性。在Fe~(3+)的作用下,双氧水在常温下就发生缓慢分解,发生失控的可能性最大;掺杂了Gu~(2+)的双氧水分解反应最剧烈,热失控严重度最高。     

重大危险源监控系统发展历程

从重大危险源安全监管的现实需求出发，对重大危险源监控系统进行全面系统地研究，及时掌握重大危险源监控技术的发展进程，是安全科研工作的必需．本文对重大危险源监控系统的发展历程进行研究与总结，指出各类监控系统的优缺点，便于科研人员及时了解与掌握重大危险源监控技术的最新进展，为重大危险源安全监管提供重要的科技支撑。     

混酸中甲苯半间歇硝化过程的危险性研究

为了解甲苯在混酸中硝化的危险性,用差示扫描量热法(DSC)测试甲苯、混酸及一硝基甲苯的热分解情况,用反应量热仪(RC1e)研究搅拌速度、温度及硝酸过用率3因素对目的反应的影响。结果表明,混酸分解温度最低,而当目的反应的3因素出现异常,以及反应过程中发生冷却失效时,均可导致硝化反应体系不稳定,此时若不停止加料,并采取措施,易引起混酸的分解,进一步可引起一硝基甲苯的分解,导致严重后果。     

应急预警即时指令技术有效遏制事故发生

在化工企业中通过系统科学辨识危险源,针对危险源安全控制数据,采用OPC通讯接口标准,利用网关机和防火墙隔离技术,实现安全的与生产系统数据链接,建成危险源实时监控与应急预警信息系统的有效链接;通过Web实时画面对现场危险源数据进行监控,数据出现波动立即启动相应预案中的应急措施,利用移动公司的企信通服务,利用面向对象语言采用Socket接口编程,自主开发短信模块接口程序;通过系统调用预警模块实现短信监报功能,应用短信瞬间发布应急预警指令,为应急处理赢得时间,有效地遏制安全生产事故的发生。     

联邦德国自然灾害保险述评

灾害保险作为减轻灾害损失的重要手段,受到了国际社会的广泛关注。本文评述了德国的自然灾害保险发展体系及保险人、保险业及国家在灾害保险中的职能关系,可为我国开展灾害保险提供借鉴。     

海上石油泄漏事故危害及其应急处理

系统地综述了海上石油泄漏的来源、危害、应急处理措施以及海上和海岸线石油污染的处理技术。目前海上石油泄漏处理技术仍以传统方法为主,因此,如何更加快速地制定和实施海上石油泄漏的应急处理对策,以及开发海上石油污染治理的新技术并进行推广应用,将是今后工作的重点。