Modern accident investigation - Four major challenges

Nowadays, ‘investigation’ is a very commonly advocated approach and consequently is becoming an umbrella concept. ‘Investigation’ includes many types of approaches on different system levels. Originating from transport accidents and crime scenes, ‘investigation’ ranges from genocide, natural disasters, via discrimination, health care to crime fighting, economic fraud and ethical questions in engineering and management. In such a changing operating environment and widespread applications, accident investigation must reassess its distinctive role, purposes and operating conditions. It must clarify and communicate its specific aims and functions and performance to such an extent that it maintains its credibility, capability and quality in the eye of professionals, politicians as well as the public. Based on an assessment of the past performance of leading investigation agencies, practical experiences during major ad hoc accident investigations and changes in the operating environment, a SWOT analysis identified several issues as internal and external challenges in the future conduct of major investigations. Finally, the article proposes several priorities, challenging each stakeholder and expert in the investigation community to contribute from its own perspective to improve accident investigation theory and practices.     

Sustainable Mining in the European Union: The Legislative Aspect

This paper is a review of the community legislation of the European Union (acquis communautaire) with regard to the mineral extractive industry. It highlights the existing inconsistencies of the acquis, which require correction. Historically, the mining industry has received privileged treatment within the European Community. The treaties declare the promotion of a policy of using natural resources prudently and rationally to avoid their unconsidered exhaustion. However, mining is excluded from the scope of major environmental directives or reserves a certain freedom for interpretation. This has led to an increasing number of related cases at the European Court of Justice.The regulatory tools of the environmental acquis are rather diverse in controlling the emission sources, the pollution pathways, and the impacted receptor media through administrative measures or assigning environmental quality targets. A combined approach is needed for controlling the environmental impacts of the extractive industries. The amendment of the Seveso II Directive, the elaboration of a reference document on best available techniques and the preparation of a wide-scope directive on mining waste management might provide a frame for the elimination of the above discrepancies. In addition, a coherent European Community policy based on the balanced consideration of economic, environmental, and social aspects could ensure a sustainable development of the mining industry. National expert detached from the Hungarian Geological Survey, H-1143 Budapest, Stefánia út 14.     

Accuracy and traceability concepts applied to environmental speciation analysis

Traceability issues are of increasing concern in all fields where chemical measurements form the basis for decisions. The concepts of accuracy and traceability as applied to environmental analysis are, however, still prone to misunderstandings, which has been recently illustrated by controversial discussions among the analytical community with respect to accuracy and traceability issues in the area of speciation analysis. Analytical techniques used for the determination of chemical species (speciation analysis) are generally based on a succession of steps (e.g. extraction derivatisation, separation, detection) which are all prone to various sources of systematic errors. Many speciation measurement techniques have been studied within the last decade through interlaboratory studies and certification of reference materials. These collaborative efforts have been understood as being directed towards strive for accuracy (trueness and precision). It has been recognised recently that the achievements actually enabled mostly to establish reference points (e.g. certified values in reference materials) which does not necessarily correspond to 'true values' but rather offer a mean for laboratories to compare their data internationally and, hence, achieve traceability. This ambiguity still generates confusion and misunderstandings among the scientific community. This communication discusses this issue, focusing on analytical measurements only. Extending discussions on general traceability issues would imply an examination of steps prior to laboratory work (sampling, storage, etc.) which is beyond the scope of this contribution.     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

Conceptualizing controversies in the EU circular bioeconomy transition

The transition towards a circular bioeconomy (CBE) in the European Union is not without contestation. In particular, research has highlighted potential trade-offs of the large-scale production of bio-resources, for instance with environmental quality goals. To date, however, it remains underexplored in the CBE literature how controversies develop throughout a transition process. To address this gap, this paper explores where controversies are situated in a transition, how they change throughout, and how they influence the transition process. First, we suggest that controversies can be situated on and between different system layers within a transition. Second, we offer an explanation of how controversies evolve, as actors confirm, integrate, disintegrate and polarize underlying storylines. Third, these controversies can have both productive and unproductive outcomes while they unfold throughout a transition. We illustrate this understanding with the example of biorefineries as CBE key technology and discuss a research agenda on controversies in sustainability transitions.     

Establishing A Earth Observation Product Service For The Terrestrial Carbon Community: The Globcarbon Initiative

'Greenhouse gases', especially carbon dioxide, are intimately connected to climate change. To understand the future evolution of the climate system and find ways to manage the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the processes and feedbacks that drive the carbon cycle must first be understood. However, our current knowledge of spatial and temporal patterns is uncertain, particularly over land and in regions of potentially high sensitivity to change like the boreal zone. The European Space Agency (ESA) GLOBCARBON project aims to generate fully calibrated estimates of at-land products quasi-independent of the original Earth Observation source for use primarily in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, but also as a contribution to the Global Carbon Project, a cooperation between the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme, International Human Dimensions Programme and the World Climate Research Programme to aid understanding of global carbon cycling. The service will feature estimation of global burned area, the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (f_APAR), leaf area index (LAI) and Vegetation Growth Cycle. The demonstrator will focus on ten complete years, from 1998 to 2007 when overlap exists between ESA Earth Observation sensors and others that are synergistic. However, the system will be flexible so that it is not dependent on any single satellite sensor and therefore can be retrospectively applied to existing archives and used with future satellite sensors.     

产业关联水平对碳排放演化的影响机理及效应研究——基于欧盟27国投入产出数据的实证分析

碳排放逐步升高是以工业化为特征的区域经济崛起的必然结果。论文的理论研究说明,产业关联水平反映了区域发展过程中产业多样化和分工细化的程度,相较于产业结构,产业关联水平对区域经济发展水平的指示意义更深刻。那么,产业关联水平对碳排放的影响特征及其趋势将更接近于碳排放在经济发展驱动下的演进规律。因此,论文采用欧盟27国投入产出数据,在测算不同类型制造业和服务业的产业关联水平的基础上,确定不同类型制造业所对应的特征服务业类型,进而应用经济计量学工具对制造业与服务业产业关联度对碳排放的影响进行实证分析,结果显示：第一,作为发达经济体,欧盟的制造业与服务业整体间产业关联度对碳排放具有显著负效应;第二,低端、中端和高端制造业与各自对应特征服务业类型间产业关联度对碳排放的影响均较为显著,其强度呈现随制造业水平升级而先上升、后下降的趋势;第三,高端制造业与生产性、分配性服务业间产业关联度的提高是实现区域碳排放达到峰值并逐步下降的重要动力,而中端制造业与其对应特征服务业关联度提升对碳排放的正向效应将高于低端制造业主导时期。因此,结合发达经济体的发展经验可以发现,碳排放的演化具有规律性特征,而以产业关联度入手的分析能够提供操作性更强的参考。目前,中国应在推动产业结构升级结构的过程中,大力提升生产性服务业的发展水平及其与制造业的关联水平,并采取积极措施降低交通运输业等分配性服务业的能耗强度。     

欧盟重金属污染防治制度研究

欧盟是一个由各成员国合作实施共同但又有差别化环境政策的区域,其重金属污染防治工作特色明显。总结分析了欧盟重金属污染防治的管理制度和相关经验,重点研究欧盟在水环境、大气环境、土壤环境以及固体废弃物等领域的重金属污染防治法律法规、标准体系,总结其经验,以期为中国重金属污染防治工作提供参考和借鉴。     

Persistent organochlorine contaminants in hair samples of Northern Poland population, 1968-2009

The European regulation on chemicals, REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals), came into force on 1 June 2007. With pre-registration complete in 2008, data for these substances may provide an overview of the expected chemical space and its characteristics. In this paper, using various in silico computation tools, we evaluate 48 782 neutral organic compounds from the list to identify hazardous and safe compounds. Two different classification schemes (modified Verhaar and ECOSAR) identified between 17% and 25% of the compounds as expressing only baseline toxicity (narcosis). A smaller portion could be identified as reactive (19%) or specifically acting (2.7%), while the majority were non-assigned (61%). Overall environmental persistence, bioaccumulation and long-range transport potential were evaluated using structure-activity relationships and a multimedia fugacity-based model. A surprisingly high proportion of compounds (20%), mainly aromatic and halogenated, had a very high estimated persistence (>195 d). The proportion of compounds with a very high estimated bioconcentration or bioaccumulation factor (>5000) was substantially less (6.9%). Finally, a list was compiled of those compounds within the applicability domain of the models used, meeting both persistence and bioaccumulation criteria, and with a long-range transport potential comparable to PCB. This list of 68 potential persistent organic pollutants contained many well-known compounds (all halogenated), but notably also five fluorinated compounds that were not included in the EINECS inventory. This study demonstrates the usability of in silico tools for identification of potentially environmentally hazardous chemicals.     

欧盟流域水环境监测与评价及对我国的启示

为提升我国水环境监测与管理能力,介绍了欧盟水框架指令关于水环境监测的规定,举例介绍了捷克、波兰和意大利等欧盟成员国的水环境监测与评价方法,并对我国在该领域的工作提出了一些想法。