System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park

Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park.     

Survey-based analysis of evacuation preparation behaviors in a chemical leakage accident: A case study

Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents.     

Two-site kinetic modeling of bacteriophages transport through columns of saturated dune sand

Breakthrough curves, on a semi-log scale, from tests in porous media with block-input of viruses, bacteria, protozoa and colloidal particles often exhibit a typical skewness: a rather slowly rising limb and a smooth transition of a declining limb to a very long tail. One-site kinetic models fail to fit the rising and declining limbs together with the tail satisfactorily. Inclusion of an equilibrium adsorption site does not seem to improve simulation results. This was encountered in the simulation of breakthrough curves from a recent field study on the removal of bacteriophages MS2 and PRD1 by passage through dune sand. In the present study, results of laboratory experiments for the study of this issue are presented. Breakthrough curves of salt and bacteriophages MS2, PRDI, and phiX174 in 1 D column experiments have been measured. One- and two-site kinetic models have been applied to fit and predict breakthrough curves from column experiments. The two-site model fitted all breakthrough curves very satisfactorily, accounting for the skewness of the rising limb as well as for the smooth transition of the declining limb to the tail of the breakthrough curve. The one-site model does not follow the curvature of the breakthrough tail, leading to an overestimation of the inactivation rate coefficient for attached viruses. Interaction with kinetic site 1 is characterized by relatively fast attachment and slow detachment, whereas attachment to and detachment from kinetic site 2 is fast. Inactivation of viruses and interaction with kinetic site 2 provide only a minor contribution to removal. Virus removal is mainly determined by the attachment to site 1. Bacteriophage phiX174 attached more than MS2 and PRD1, which can be explained by the greater electrostatic repulsion that MS2 and PRD1 experience compared to the less negatively charged phiX174.     

Fenton试剂处理有机氯农药废水的研究

研究了Fenton氧化法预处理有机氯农药废水的反应特性.通过正交实验确定了氧化反应各种影响因子的最佳操作条件.在此条件下,废水1、2的COD去除率分别为47.8%和87.9%;色度去除率分别为84.4%和99.4%.Fenton试剂处理后,2种废水的可生化性也得到了提高.在各影响因子与COD去除率的关系曲线基础上,分析了废水中各影响因子的作用机理.     

Efficiency of white lupin in the removal of mercury from contaminated soils： Soil and hydroponic experiments

This study examined the ability of the white lupin to remove mercury (Hg) from a hydroponic system (Hg concentrations 0, 1.25, 2.5, 5 and 10 μmol/L) and from soil in pots and lysimeters (total Hg concentration (19.2 ± 1.9) mg/kg availability 0.07%, and (28.9 ± 0.4) mg/kg availability 0.09%, respectively), and investigated the accumulation and distribution of Hg in different parts of the plant. White lupin roots efficiently took up Hg, but its translocation to the harvestable parts of the plant was low. The Hg concentration in the seeds posed no risk to human health according to the recommendations of the World Health Organization, but the shoots should not be used as fodder for livestock, at least when unmixed with other fodder crops. The accumulation of Hg in the hydroponically-grown plants was linear over the concentration range tested. The amount of Hg retained in the roots, relative to the shoots, was almost constant irrespective of Hg dose (90%). In the soil experiments, Hg accumulation increased with exposure time and was the greater in the lysimeter than in the pot experiments. Although Hg removal was the greater in the hydroponic system, revealing the potential of the white lupin to extract Hg, bioaccumulation was the greatest in the lysimeter-grown plants; the latter system more likely reflects the true behaviour of white lupin in the field when Hg availability is a factor that limits Hg removal. The present results suggest that the white lupin could be used in long-term soil reclamation strategies that include the goal of profitable land use in Hg-polluted areas.     

Assessing the value of pastoral farming in the Alps using choice experiments: evidence for public policies and management

Alpine livestock farms consist of pastures, buildings, people and animals, and are a key element for the economy in the Alps. Pastures and huts are often owned by the local municipalities, who lease them to private tenants. However, this activity is often no longer profitable, and thus pastures and huts remain unused and abandoned. This research provides an economic estimate of pastoral farming using the choice experiment (CE) method, also assessing the willingness to pay (WTP) for pastoral farming functions. The study examines different scenarios of upland farm management in order to provide recommendations for public owners on how to better manage these assets. The case study is located in an alpine area in northern Italy. Our results show a higher WTP for the attributes related to the traditional Alpine agricultural economy, with an emphasis on grazing. Several policy implications regarding agricultural renewal and support for mountain livelihoods are highlighted in the conclusions.     

Evaluation of trajectories calculated from ecmwf data against constant volume balloon flights during etex

This paper validates trajectories calculated from ECMWF analyses against the tracks of constant volume balloons (CVBs) released during the European tracer experiment (ETEX). The altitudes of the calculated trajectories were adjusted to the altitudes of the respective balloons in short intervals to allow direct comparisons. The agreement between the calculated trajectories and the balloon tracks was very good for the first experiment (individual errors from 1 to 26%, average 15%), and excellent (errors from 2 to 11%, average 6%) for the second one. The agreement for the second experiment was probably partly better because the CVBs travelled above the planetary boundary layer, but the small errors also indicate that the ECMWF fields of the horizontal wind were of exceptionally good quality in the second experiment. This is in sharp contrast to the results of the dispersion models which all failed in the prediction of the perfluorocarbon tracer dispersion for the second experiment. A likely explanation for this is that vertical motions, possibly on small scales, were not correctly captured by the ECMWF analyses, but it is not possible to clarify this with the CVB data.     

火灾时建筑内人员安全疏散可靠性的数值计算

运用一次二阶矩法(FOSM)的可靠指数概念,建立建筑火灾安全人员安全疏散随机不确定性分析方法,给出了可靠指数β的计算程序。案例结果分析表明,运用FOSM可以计算火灾环境下人员安全疏散的可靠概率。     

地球系统模式CESM模拟的ENSO变率与中国东部降水格局

根据地球系统模式（CESM）的千年控制模拟试验结果,以Niño3.4区的逐月海表温度变化为指标,辨识了212次El Niño事件、226次La Niña事件;分析了El Niño和La Niña事件发生当年及次年中国东部5-9月降水异常的空间格局;探讨了ENSO与华北、江淮、江南和华南4个区域旱涝的关系。结果表明：El Niño事件发生的当年5-9月,华北和华南地区降水减少2%~10%,长江中下游地区降水略有增加（0~2%）;次年,江南地区转为降水增加（2%~10%）,华北北部降水继续减少。在La Niña事件发生的当年,华北地区降水偏多（增加2%~10%）;次年,江淮地区降水显著减少（2%~5%）。ENSO增强会导致降水变幅加大。在El Niño衰减并向La Niña快速发展的年份,江南地区出现洪涝灾害的概率较其他年份高1倍以上。这些认识为深入揭示气候系统内部年际变率对中国东部降水格局变化与区域旱涝的影响作用、理解2016年长江中下游发生重大洪涝灾害提供了异常天气气候背景依据。     

Time delay,complexity and support for taxation

People often experience the benefits of taxation over time. We design an intertemporal market experiment with negative externalities to examine how delaying the benefits of taxation affects support for taxes. We find that when negative externalities occur immediately, people learn to adopt Pigouvian taxes, which are aimed at reducing negative externalities and restoring market efficiency. By contrast, when negative externalities are delayed, people are less receptive to taxation. This effect persists over time. Our data reveal that the strong negative delay effect can be explained in large part by narrow bracketing and the increased perceived complexity of the environment, rather than by time discounting per-se. We argue and demonstrate that increasing the transparency of intertemporal tradeoffs can effectively promote support for taxation.