近20年来中国典型区域PM2.5时空演变过程

近20年来PM_(2.5)污染严重制约了中国可持续发展.长时间序列历史监测数据的缺失阻碍了相关研究.为此,本文以四大典型区域2013~2016年的PM_(2.5)浓度监测值和2000~2016年MODIS AOD数据、边界层高度、温度等气象数据作为基础数据,将反向人工神经网络和支持向量回归机两种算法相结合,构建组合模拟模型,并利用地理空间分析技术实现近20年来PM_(2.5)浓度历史变化过程的情景再现.研究结果表明,组合模型具有较低的误差和更高的泛化能力;时空分析结果表明,2000~2010年京津冀和东三省PM_(2.5)浓度持续增长,珠三角PM_(2.5)浓度缓慢下降,3个研究区PM_(2.5)污染范围呈扩大趋势,长三角PM_(2.5)浓度值及污染范围基本保持稳定.2012年4个研究区PM_(2.5)浓度值降低且污染范围缩小,但2013~2016年PM_(2.5)浓度略微上升后又下降,高污染范围缩小,这与国家采取PM_(2.5)区域联防等治理措施有关.     

不同SAPO分子筛负载MnOx催化剂的低温NH3-SCR性能研究

以磷酸硅铝分子筛SAPO-5、SAPO~(-1)1和SAPO-34为载体,采用乙醇分散法制备了用于低温氨选择性还原(NH_3-SCR)NO_x的分子筛负载MnO_x催化剂.活性测试结果显示,3种分子筛催化剂均展现出优良的NH_3-SCR活性,但三者在低温区间的SCR活性存在较明显差异,其SCR活性顺序如下:MnO_x/SAPO-34MnO_x/SAPO-5MnO_x/SAPO~(-1)1.借助XRD、N2吸附-脱附、XPS、H2-TPR、NH_3-TPD、NH_3FT-IR等技术对催化剂的表面活性物种及表面酸性等进行表征分析,结果表明,MnO_x主要以无定型状态分散于载体上,负载后载体的比表面积和孔体积均有所下降.XPS和H2-TPR分析证实,不同分子筛载体上MnO_x的表面浓度与氧化态明显不同.NH_3-TPD和NH_3FT-IR分析揭示了催化剂表面均存在Bronsted酸位和Lewis酸位,其中,Lewis酸性位对低温SCR反应起着关键作用.研究表明,催化剂的催化性能会因载体不同而存在差异,高Mn4+表面浓度和丰富的Lewis酸性位对催化剂在低温区间实现优良的催化活性尤为重要.     

支持向量机用于芳烃类化合物对芳烃受体亲和性QSAR研究

尝试将支持向量机(SVM)应用于3种典型芳烃类环境毒物(PCDD,PCDF和PCB)定量构效关系研究,通过对芳烃受体亲和性考察,结果发现该组样本的生物活性在一定程度上与分子电性距离矢量具有非线性联系.SVM对内部和外部样本都具良好稳定性能和预测能力:所得模型拟合、交叉检验、外部预测复相关系数及均方根误差分别为R2cum=0.922、Q2cum=0.825、Q2ext=0.834和RMSext=0.531将其与文献报道及多元线性回归、偏最小二乘、人工神经网络进行比较,结果表明对小样本、非线性问题SVM具较强拓展性及泛化能力,故在环境毒物评价和控制中具有广阔应用前景.     

污染场地修复决策支持系统的几个关键问题探讨

场地土壤和地下水环境污染问题已成为近年来我国环境保护领域关注的焦点和热点.污染场地修复决策支持系统是在场地勘察与风险评估基础上,筛选最佳的修复技术,以制定经济高效的场地污染治理方案.本文探讨与分析修复决策系统的框架、模型、方法等关键环节,评估与总结了国际上现有40多种修复决策软件的模块及功能.针对我国场地污染问题,综合国际前沿的思想与理念,提出适合我国现阶段经济社会发展水平的决策支持系统开发思路.     

基于遗传-支持向量机和遗传-径向基神经网络的有机物正辛醇-水分配系数QSPR研究

基于遗传算法(GA)的因子筛选和支持向量机(SVM)的非线性回归,提出了1种改进的有机物定量结构-性质相关(QSPR)建模方法--遗传-支持向量机(GA-SVM),并将其用于38种食品工业常用有机物正辛醇-水分配系数(Kow)的QSPR建模.结果显示,QSPR模型选取了分子量、Hansen极性、沸点、含氧率和含氢率5种参数;模型的预测值与实测值间的误差平方和(SSE)、均方差(RMSE)和决定系数(R2)分别为0.048、0,036和0.999,表明模型具有较强的预测能力;同时,交叉验证的结果(SSE=0.295,RMSE=0.089,R2=0.995)也表明,模型具有良好的稳健性,因此,GA-SVM算法适用于对有机物正辛醇-水分配系数的QSPR建模.此外,将基于GA-SVM的QSPR模型分别与基于遗传-径向基神经网络(GA-RBFNN)和基于线性算法的模型进行了比较,结果表明,应用GA-SVM建立的QSPR模型无论从稳健性还是预测能力上都优于应用其它2种算法建立的模型,因此,GA-SVM算法比GA-RBFNN和线性算法更适合于对有机物正辛醇-水分配系数进行QSPR建模.     

水资源环境承载能力监测预警平台设计探讨

建立水资源环境承载力监测预警平台与机制,是实现我国环境管理战略由以环境污染控制为目标导向,向以环境质量改善为目标导向彻底转变的重要支撑手段。以水资源环境承载力领域的相关研究进展为基础,提出水资源环境承载力监控预警平台的设计框架,平台设计的逻辑结构、核心功能以及相对应的水资源环境承载力评估技术,并对该平台建设的困难、问题及未来的发展趋势进行了分析,以期为水资源环境承载能力监测预警机制建设提供有益的参考。     

Rapidly assessing cobenefits to advance threat-management alliances

Conservation strategies aimed at reducing threats to biodiversity can have significant implications for multiple sectors in a socioeconomic system, but these cobenefits are often poorly understood. For example, many of the threats to native species also impede agricultural production, yet agriculture is typically perceived as in competition with conservation objectives. Although a comprehensive, multiobjective decision analysis is usually beyond the scope and capacity of conservation decision makers, failing to incorporate key socioeconomic costs and benefits into conservation decision-making processes can result in missed opportunities for diversifying outcomes and creating cost-sharing multisectoral partnerships. We devised a straightforward and readily interpretable approach to incorporate cobenefits into a threat-management prioritization approach. We used it to analyze the agricultural cobenefits of implementing 9 invasive animal management strategies designed to ensure the persistence of 148 threatened species across Australia's Lake Eyre Basin over 50 years. A structured elicitation process with 24 participants (scientists, land managers, agriculturalists, and other stakeholders) was used to collect information on each strategy, including costs, technical and social feasibility, benefits to native threatened species, and cobenefits to agricultural production systems. The costs of targeted invasive animal management to save threatened species across the basin (AU$33 million/year) outweighed the overall benefits to the agricultural industry (estimated AU$226 million/year). The return on investment for these management strategies varied substantially when agricultural cobenefits were considered alongside threatened species benefits and showed synergies and challenges. Our approach demonstrates the value of incorporating cobenefits of conservation actions into cost-effectiveness analyses to guide potential investment and partnerships and to diversify implementation pathways.     

Cash transfers' effect on government support: the case of Fiji

While some scholars have found that government post-disaster assistance supports the incumbent, others have shown that incumbent effects among beneficiaries are imperceptible or negative. This article contributes to this debate by using a regression discontinuity design of households affected by Tropical Cyclone Winston in Fiji to show that the type of assistance provided is an important variable in understanding the effects of aid on perceptions of the government. Residents of Fiji who received a post-disaster cash transfer are up to 20 per cent more likely to be very satisfied with the government than are those who did not. The probability further increases if the cash transfer was provided along with in-kind benefits or vouchers, but it is not affected if beneficiaries were also encouraged to use their own pension savings. This paper provides evidence in favour of the ‘attentive citizen’ theory by demonstrating that beneficiaries actively appraise government responses; it also reveals possible effects of elite capture on the relationship between the government and beneficiaries.     

An evaluation of a shared experience group for women and their support persons following prenatal diagnosis and termination for a fetal abnormality

Objectives Support after fetal diagnosis of abnormality (SAFDA), is a facilitated shared experience group for women and their partners or support person, in Victoria, Australia, who have had a pregnancy termination for a fetal abnormality. The objective of this study was to evaluate the SAFDA-facilitated group. Methods A questionnaire-based study was undertaken between 2001 and 2005 to evaluate SAFDA. A deidentified self-completed questionnaire was given to participants at the end of each group and included questions relating to the referring professional, participants' prior expectations of the group, helpfulness of participation, preferred group format, length, and venue. In addition, there was also opportunity for participants to make general comments on their experiences of participating in SAFDA. Results A total of 85 participants (100% response) completed the questionnaire. Seventy-one participants (84%) considered it ‘very helpful’ to participate in the group. Seventy-eight participants (92%) considered that a shared-experience group was the most beneficial format. Comments written by participants affirmed that the present format of SAFDA was a highly valued opportunity to listen to and share experiences in a confidential small group. Conclusion SAFDA is a beneficial forum for women and their partners or support person to share their experiences after having had a pregnancy termination for a fetal abnormality. Further, SAFDA provides information and insights for health professionals who are considering how best to support women. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MODELS FOR APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A research project was undertaken for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the relative utility and effectiveness of four well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models for applications in realistic water resources planning settings. A series of experiments was devised to examine the impact of rating and ranking procedures on the decision making behavior of users (e.g., planners, managers, analysts, etc.) when faced with situations involving multiple evaluation criteria and numerous alternative planning projects. The four MCDM models tested were MATS-PC, EXPERT CHOICE, ARIADNE, and ELECTRE. Two groups of analysts and decision makers were tested. One group consisted of experienced U.S. Army Corps planners, while the other was comprised of graduate students. Based on a series of nonparametric statistical tests, the results identified EXPERT CHOICE as the preferred MCDM model by both groups based largely on ease of use and understandability. ARIADNE fostered the largest degree of agreement within and among the two groups of individuals tested. The tests also lend support to the claim that rankings are not affected significantly by the choice of decision maker (i.e., who uses any of these MCDM models) or which of these four models is used.