论环境监测在总量控制中的技术支持和保障作用

从环境监测工作的方针和职能论述了环境监测在实行污染物排放总量控制中的支持和保障作用；从实行总量控制的技术要求阐明了需要环境监测的支持和保障，并提出了总量控制要建立以环境监测为主体的技术支持和保障体系，以促进总量控制计划目标的实现     

基于KPCA-LSSVM的矿井工作面动力环境安全评价模型

为实现对采前工作面所处动力环境的客观、准确评价,选取9个直接影响工作面 动力环境的指标因素构建安全评价指标体系,建立基于核主成分分析(KPCA)和最小二乘 支持向量机(LSSVM)的工作面动力环境多因素耦合安全评价智能模型。首先根据KPCA理 论对评价指标施行简约化处理,剔除冗余信息,得出6个简约后的评价指标并输入LSSVM 模型中训练学习,最后得到评价模型。选取从平顶山矿区和大同矿区搜集到的30组工作 面历史数据,按照20∶10的比例对模型进行训练和测试,并将测试结果与其他四种模型 结果进行了对比,结果表明:KPCA方法可有效减少数据信息冗余,利用KPCA优化的 LSSVM模型可准确评价工作面动力环境,误判率为0。     

巷道围岩再造承载层机理及数值模拟

在分析大变形巷道基本支护系统基础上,依据应力转移与强抗承载的围岩稳定思想,提出了巷道围岩再造承载层机理,建立了巷道围岩再造承载层稳定性力学模型,分析了巷道围岩再造承载层的稳定因素,最后进行了数值模拟。结果表明:巷道基本支护系统的承载能力与作用范围有限,基本支护系统作用下巷道浅部围岩呈“O”形整体收敛,弹塑性界面离层明显;而巷道两帮再造承载层与基本支护系统形成“Ω”形承载结构体,整体承载能力加强,顶板应力由底板深部转移改变为向两帮外伸移动,两帮围岩移动由巷道内收敛改变为向巷道底角外扩散,巷道围岩稳定性提高;巷道围岩再造承载层位置越高、长度越大,围岩越稳定;无支护巷道两帮垂直应力集中区明显,支护后巷道两帮垂直应力集中区得到弱化,浅部围岩形成“Ω”承载拱形体,两帮与顶板位移变化量较小,底鼓量为无支护巷道的84.65%,应进一步做好底鼓控制,围岩整体收敛变形较小,支护效果明显。     

阻断漏风供氧的脱氧剂在密闭中的应用研究

工作面回采过程中产生的超前支撑压力,会对上区段回采过程中在联络巷构筑的密闭造成破坏,使之产生裂隙出现漏风,向采空区供氧。为解决目前密闭出现裂隙后只能采取措施减少漏风而不能将漏风中氧气消耗、除去的弊端,利用具有耗氧功能的脱氧剂,设计了主动脱氧型密闭,并通过数值模拟将普通密闭与该密闭漏风时氧浓度分布进行对比。研究表明:相同漏风情况下,普通密闭中添加脱氧剂成为主动脱氧型密闭后,使漏出密闭风流的氧浓度大幅降低,有效减少了进入采空区的氧气量;另外,经过脱氧的密闭漏风,剩余高浓度的N2,对采空区起到了惰化效果,降低了采空区附近的氧浓度。     

综掘巷道超前支护装备双组支撑支护特性实验研究

为提高综掘巷道的掘进效率、改善支护工艺,设计一种用于综掘巷道迎头顶板支护的迈步式超前支护装备。通过对装备工作原理的分析,建立其三维模型。为检验装备的支护效果,设计了支护特性实验方案,构建实验平台,基于实验平台进行了双组支撑状态下的支护实验。实验结果表明:顶板上离固支边越远处动态位移变形量越大,接触力波动也越大; 在双组支撑状态下,顶板变形量最大达到9 mm,接触力最大幅值达到5.84 kN,位置均为顶板纵向中线位置处,在被支护后,该位置最迟趋于稳定; 在双组支撑状态下,顶板变形及接触力经历2~3 s波动后都将趋于平稳; 超前支护装备对顶板的稳定性能起到良好的控制作用,能提高顶板的安全性,为后续产品研发及工业实验提供依据。     

Sustainable development strategies for China's Du Jiang Yan Water Resources Project

China's Du Jiang Yan Irrigation Project, dating back to 256 BC, is one of the world's earliest water resources projects. Although it has been benefiting the Sichuan Basin area for over 2000 years, it is facing increasing problems due to ecological deterioration, over-exploitation from local industries and agriculture, suboptimal resource allocation arising from supply and demand mismatches, and an aging infrastructure. The traditional water resources development model is no longer appropriate for current and future needs of the area. Therefore, a sustainable development framework is envisioned in which population, economy and environment coexist in harmony. Within this framework, major strategies, such as construction and renovation of infrastructure, promotion of water conserving irrigation through non-engineering measures, pollution control and ecological improvements, restructuring of management entities and exploration of new funding sources, are proposed. An evaluation system is also introduced to assess the degree of sustainability and to monitor progress towards a high level of sustainable development.     

Volcanic hazard or economic destitution: hard choices in Banños,Ecuador

In 1999, the entire population of tourism-dependent Baños, Ecuador, some 16,000 people, was evacuated in anticipation of a violent eruption of Mount Tungurahua. Subsequently, many areas in the risk zone experienced heavy ash falls, lahars, and landslides, although no cataclysmic events occurred. Many small rural communities were also evacuated. While these communities became impacted by the hazard, Baños avoided most direct effects. Conditions for all evacuees were grim, and their conditions compounded because Ecuador was simultaneously undergoing profound economic and political crises. Absent livelihood alternatives, community leaders from Baños organized a return to their town even though it remained under an evacuation order. An aggressive campaign brought tourists and more residents back and Baños revived economically; however, this was achieved at the cost of hazard awareness among both groups, tourists and residents, and public safety became compromised.     

Community support for wildfire mitigation at Peavine Métis Settlement,Alberta, Canada

This paper presents the findings of a study that explored public support for wildfire mitigation programmes implemented in Peavine Métis Settlement, an Indigenous community located in Alberta, Canada. Data were collected in a community-based study using interviews, focus groups and participant observation over a 4-year period. Results showed that support for the wildfire mitigation programme was influenced by local leadership, economics, community capacity and land and home ownership. The communal nature of land and home ownership on the settlement influenced support for wildfire mitigation that was conducted by the settlement at both the residential and community levels. Employment opportunities available in the community for settlement members for wildfire mitigation activities also increased support for the local wildfire mitigation programme. A local Aboriginal leader skilled in wildfire mitigation and existing community capacity was also seen as vital to settlement member support for the programme.     

Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between household evacuation decisions and official emergency management practices in light of recent increases in the availability and diversity of hurricane-related information. While we focus on Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, we incorporate findings of our longitudinal research effort covering the last four years and six post-1995 hurricane threats to the state. While only 64% of residents in the mandatory evacuation zone complied with the Hurricane Floyd evacuation order, over 80% agreed that calling an evacuation was an appropriate precautionary response given the uncertainties of the storm. Longitudinal surveys indicate that Horry County residents have developed a fairly robust strategy in making evacuation decisions. This “hurricane savvy” population depends more heavily on individuals' assessments of risks than on official orders. Individual assessment practices differ from official orders in that greater weight is given to household circumstances and preferences, the diligent monitoring of a variety of information sources, and the incorporation of past experiences into the decision-making process. Surveys indicate differences between the general public and officials in terms of priorities and preferences about hurricane evacuations. The public demands more information about the hurricane threat. Officials place more emphasis on planning evacuation routes and public safety measures.     

Environmental emergency decision support system based on Artificial Neural Network

We present a general methodology for developing environmental emergency decision support systems (EEDSS) based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We highlight the method for developing the system using an illustrative example of an unexpected atmospheric accident with an ANN prototype system for a district in Shanghai. The network architecture of the ANN is introduced. Then the development process and key technologies are addressed. The procedures for matching the environmental emergency decision support characteristics are as follows: (1) digitization (coding) of case information and emergency measures, in which the information of cases are divided into the input attributes and decision-making information, and standardized and digitized through the Feature Evaluation (FE) method and the Intensity Hierarchical (IH) method, respectively; (2) construction of environmental emergency ANN, in which Gradient Descent with Momentum and Adaptive Learning Rate (GDMALR) method (traingdx function), a modified back-propagation algorithm, is employed to do training; and (3) translation (decoding) of decision-making information, in which output data of ANN is interpreted into practical contingency measures with Translation Based on Conventional Import Ratios (TBCIR) method. The training features, time, errors, accuracy, and input attribute weights of the prototype system are analyzed. The usage of the prototype system is demonstrated through a hypothetical case. This article encounters the challenge of ANN’s own lack of training samples. We discuss to the concept of integrating Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), Genetic Algorithm (GA), and ANN to overcome this difficulty and form a technology system for generating useful decision support information for environmental emergency response.