A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO MANAGE SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES1

ABSTRACT: Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western United States river basins because they impact threatened fish species’habitat. One way to alleviate this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. Presented is a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS uses a statistical model for predicting daily stream temperatures and a rule‐based module to compute reservoir releases. Water releases are calculated to meet fish habitat temperature targets based on the predicted stream temperature and a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. Strategies that enable effective use of a limited amount of water throughout the season have also been incorporated in the DSS. The utility of the DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada, using hypothetical operating policy and 1988 through 1994 inflows. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations (i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat).     

基于全极化SAR影像的双台河口湿地分类及其变化分析

为了研究辽东湾双台河口湿地变化原因,对该地区全极化SAR影像进行湿地分类.引入Freeman分解建模全极化SAR影像,得到二面角散射、体散射、表面散射的散射功率,利用SVM分类法对散射机制假彩色影像进行分类,进而确定该地区的湿地分布情况.通过对比分析2007年与2016年的湿地分布情况,同时考虑区域特性和数据的可获取性,选取盘锦市年降水量、年均气温、年径流量、海平面高度、城市建成面积、原油年产量、水产品年产量和逐年GDP等8个驱动因子,研究双台河口湿地变化的驱动机制.结果表明:①全极化SAR影像分类结果总精度达到80.25%,较光学影像的分类精度提升7.43%,并且可将芦苇湿地进一步细分为芦苇池塘和芦苇草甸;②2016年双台河口各湿地面积占比依次为草本沼泽（28.54%）>浅海水域（22.44%）>灌丛沼泽（16.88%）>水产养殖厂（9.54%）>河流（8.91%）>稻田（7.58%）>淤泥质沙滩（6.11%）;③不同湿地的变化原因有所差异,驱动因子也不尽相同,如水产品年产量增加是水产养殖厂转化为淤泥质沙滩的直接驱动因子,而气温上升等自然因素和城市建成区面积增长等社会因素是草本沼泽退化和变化的主要驱动因子.研究显示,全极化SAR影像较光学影像更适合湿地分类,而双台河口湿地自然湿地减少和人工湿地增加是自然和社会因素共同作用的结果.      

基于MRMR-HK-SVM模型的PM2.5浓度预测

以赣州市2017年全年的空气质量和气象数据为研究对象,通过最大相关最小冗余算法（MRMR）提取出最优的特征子集,并将其作为预测模型的输入数据,同时构造混合核函数（HK）对传统的支持向量机模型（SVM）进行改进,最终建立MRMR-HK-SVM模型.实验结果表明,MRMR-HK-SVM模型有着更低的平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）,相较于传统SVM模型,预测结果平均绝对误差下降了26.9%,且能更加准确的追踪到PM_2.5浓度的突变时刻.可见,MRMR-HK-SVM模型具有更好的泛化能力,能够更加精确地预测PM_2.5浓度.     

基于Multi-class SVM的车辆换道行为识别模型研究

自动安全换道是车辆实现无人驾驶的关键,为精确识别行驶车辆换道状态,保证行车安全,设计了一种基于多分类支持向量机(Multi-class Support Vector Machine,Multiclass SVM)的车辆换道识别模型。从NGSIM数据集中选取美国101公路车辆轨迹数据进行分类处理,并将车辆换道过程划分为车辆跟驰阶段、车辆换道准备阶段和车辆换道执行阶段。采用网格搜索结合粒子群优化算法(Grid Search-PSO)对SVM模型中惩罚参数C和核参数g进行寻优标定,利用多分类支持向量机换道识别模型对样本数据进行训练和测试,模型测试精度达97.68%。研究表明,模型能够很好地识别车辆在换道过程中的行为状态,为车辆换道阶段的研究提供支持。     

Assessment of the Conservation Measures Partnership's effort to improve conservation outcomes through adaptive management

Conservation practice has demonstrated an increasing desire for accountability of actions, particularly with respect to effectiveness, efficiency, and impact to clearly identified objectives. This has been accompanied by increased attention to achieving adaptive management. In 2002, practitioners representing several prominent conservation nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) launched a community of practice called the Conservation Measures Partnership (CMP). The partnership CMP has worked to establish standards of conservation practice to improve accountability of conservation actions through adaptive management. The focal organizing framework for CMP has been the Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation (OS). We evaluated, through an online survey and personal interviews, the first decade of CMP and the OS. The CMP has garnered a positive reputation among agencies, NGOs, and funders and has succeeded in developing a large user base of the OS. However, CMP has not fully achieved its goal of making the OS standard operating procedure for the largest NGOs (e.g., The Nature Conservancy, World Wildlife Fund), despite it being widely used within these organizations. This lack of institutionalization is attributable to multiple causes, including an increase in the number of partially overlapping decision‐support frameworks and challenges achieving full‐cycle adaptive management. Users strongly believed the OS fosters better conservation practice and highly valued the OS for improving their practice. A primary objective of the OS is to assist practitioners to achieve full‐cycle adaptive management to better integrate learning into improving the effectiveness and efficiency of actions. However, most practitioners had not yet achieved cycle completion for their projects. To improve the effectiveness of CMP, OS, and conservation practice in general, we recommend collaborative efforts among the proponents of multiple decision‐support frameworks to foster strong institutional adoption of a common set of adaptive‐management standards for conservation accountability.     

矿井突水水源识别的RS-LSSVM模型

为了对矿井突水水源进行准确、高效的判别,综合考虑水化学特征,选取Ca~(2+),Mg~(2+),K~++Na~+,HCO-3,SO2-4,Cl~-和总硬度7个指标的质量浓度(mg/L)作为矿井突水水源的最初判别指标。利用粗糙集(RS)理论的属性约简来筛选水化学特征指标,用以作为水源识别的核心判别指标,建立基于RS的矿井突水水源识别的最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型。选用约简处理后的13组煤矿数据对模型进行训练,再用训练好的模型对另外12组突水数据进行水源判别,并与未进行属性约简的LSSVM模型及Fisher判别分析法、随机森林方法进行对比。结果表明,利用属性约简方法可以很好地排除原始数据中的冗余信息干扰,因而能有效判别矿井突水水源,使矿井突水水源模型的误判率降低至0;而且指标约简过程可以降低LSSVM运算的复杂度,也能够提高判别效率。     

Support for environmental protection: an integration of ideological-consistency and information-deficit models

The divergent roles of education in predicting environmental support among liberals, conservatives, and moderates in the United States are explained by integrating ideological-consistency and information-deficit models. Increased political polarization among elites has led to divergent environmental positions advocated by liberal and conservative political and media leaders; it was predicted that education would increase public attention to these elite cues and, consistent with the ideological-consistency model, increased education would lead to attitudes in line with consensual positions endorsed by party elites. Across two nationally representative data sets, higher levels of education were associated with stronger environmental support among liberals and weaker environmental support among conservatives. Moderates were predicted to have fewer elite cues on which to base their attitudes; consistent with the information-deficit model, higher levels of education among moderates were associated with strengthened environmental support. A moderated-mediation model supported the differential application of these two theories.     

高大模板支撑体系坍塌事故不安全行为原因分析

为预防高大模板支撑体系建筑施工坍塌事故的发生,选取2000-2016年间的31起高大模板支撑体系建筑施工坍塌事故案例,运用事故统计与分析方法,以行为安全“2-4”模型为理论依据,对31起事故中的不安全动作及其规律进行研究。研究表明:出现频次最高的事故等级为较大事故。一线作业人员因安全知识不足“不知道是否应该设置剪刀撑”引发不安全动作“剪刀撑数量不足或未设置剪刀撑”的发生率为71.43%,因安全意识缺乏“没意识到杆件距离过大给施工带来的危险”引发不安全动作“立杆间距和横杆步距过大”的发生率为78.57%;管理人员因安全意识缺乏“没意识到按规定进行安全交底的重要性”引发不安全动作“未进行安全技术交底”的发生率为78.57%,因不佳安全习惯“按照以前的方案习惯施工”引发不安全动作“未制定专项施工方案”的发生率为83.33%。因此,减少不安全动作的首要任务是加强一线作业人员违规操作的管理,企业在制定对策措施时,应从加强一线作业人员与管理人员的安全知识、安全意识和安全习惯入手,预防不安全动作的发生,进而有效预防事故。     

基于灰色支持向量机组合模型的我国火电NOx排放量预测

区域火电NO_x排放量的预测属于小样本、贫信息的灰色系统. 由于NO_x排放量受多个因素的叠加性影响,单一预测模型难以准确反映NO_x排放量的复杂变化,易产生较大的预测误差. 基于此,利用灰色预测理论和支持向量机预测理论,建立了火电NO_x排放量组合优化预测模型. 采用国家权威部门发布的火电NO_x排放量数据,综合考虑影响我国火电NO_x排放量的主要因素,对我国2008—2010年以及2020年的火电NO_x排放量进行了预测,预测结果与官方公布的实际值基本一致; 同时,预测的时间大大缩短.      

Materialphilia,biophilia, and sustainable use of the planet

SUMMARY

The intricate and complex relationships between transhumant pastoralists, livestock and environment at the high altitudes of Indian Central Himalaya has started to break down at an alarming rate. Some of the important factors attributed to this are depletion of grazing resources, commercialization of the rural economy, and integration of these communities with the mainstream of development through education and employment. Traditionally these livestock were assigned different roles in society depending upon their economic benefit and utility. The roles which once depended upon attitude to various risks, such as environmental, social and economic, have lost their significance due to changing of the production process. This paper gives an overview of the various types of roles the livestock played in the transhumant society, and how they are being replaced by the developmental process in the region, and whether the changes are sustainable for such remote regions in a developing country.