Decision support tools for collaborative marine spatial planning: identifying potential sites for tidal energy devices around the Mull of Kintyre,Scotland

The expansion of offshore renewable energy production, such as wind, wave and tidal energy, is likely to lead to conflict between different users of the sea. Two types of spatial decision support tools were developed to support stakeholder workshops. A value mapping tool combines regional attributes with local knowledge. A negotiation support tool uses these value maps to support stakeholders in finding acceptable locations for tidal energy devices. Interactive value mapping proved useful to address deficiencies in data and to create credibility for these maps. The negotiation tool helped stakeholders in balancing objectives of the various stakeholders.     

基于关联向量机回归的水质预测模型

提出了一种基于关联向量机回归的水质时间序列预测模型,并以该模型对氢离子浓度指数(p H值)、溶解氧(DO)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)和氨氮(NH3-N)4种重要水质指标进行预测.首先采用国家环保部发布的四川攀枝花龙洞水质自动监测数据进行实验,对该模型的有效性进行了验证;然后将关联向量机回归预测模型与支持向量机回归预测模型进行比较.为了比较不同核函数的预测效果,实验中预测模型的核函数分别采用了线性函数和高斯函数.实验结果表明,关联向量机回归模型的预测效果不亚于支持向量机回归模型;且在给出预测值时,还能同时给出预测结果的可信程度.     

Human behaviour and evacuation time for large underground comprehensive buildings during fire risk process

Human factors play an indispensable role in process safety during fire risk process. Fire evacuation of underground comprehensive buildings is a critical consideration for practical importance. Here, evacuation experiments were conducted in the Guangzhou East Railway Station Plaza, a large underground comprehensive building in Guangdong, China, with the plaza occupants as the participants. The evacuation factors, namely evacuation time and evacuee-selected evacuation routes, were evaluated using empirical equations (the Togawa model and the Melinek and Booth model) and evacuation modelling software (EVACNET 4 and composite occupant evacuation model). The experimental data were used to verify the empirical equations and evacuation models and to modify specific empirical parameters. The effect on escape route judgement and selection under emergency situations was analysed. The results demonstrated that direct access to outdoor exits could considerably reduce evacuation time. The experimental N and t_s were 1 person/m·s and 28 s, respectively. The total evacuation time was 281 s, and the EVACNET 4 and composite models’ simulations of safe evacuation were 285–290 s, which was consistent with the experimental data—validating the high accuracy and applicability of the models.     

轨道交通项目环评的指标体系及管理与决策支持系统研究

为解决城市轨道交通项目环评缺乏完整的评价指标体系及评估结果不够可靠、环评报告资料难以管理和利用等问题,参考DPSIR模型提出了包括3个层次的指标体系,并设计了其管理与决策支持系统,对其总体框架、功能体系、实现和部署进行了深入讨论。通过案例分析,提出的指标体系和系统具有较强的实用性,对指导环评工作具有一定意义。     

工业企业节能减排支持度感知的结构维度研究——以259家工业企业为例

工业企业节能减排对我国节能减排目标的完成具有重要的意义。在深度访谈和文献研究的基础上，通过对江西和江苏两省259家企业问卷调查，利用探索性因素分析，揭示节能减排支持度感知由持续发展支持度、政府支持度、绩效支持度和社会环境支持度4个构成维度，经统计验证，各因子与总分的相关程度明显高于各因子间的相关程度，证实了该问卷构想效度的合理性，建议相关部门制定政策时更注意推进对以上4个方面有所改进的措施     

预压托换桩在深基坑临近建筑物加固及边坡支护的应用研究

煤矿输煤暗道基坑开挖时造成临近主井驱动机房倾斜和基坑边坡垮塌。采用钢筋混凝土预压托换桩对原主井驱动机房基础加固,通过托换桩将机房荷载传递到承载力较好的持力层,既保证了既有建筑物的安全,又保证了边坡的稳定,加固效果可靠,取得了良好的经济与社会效益,为既有建筑近旁开挖深基坑的边坡支护方法的研究与工程应用方面取得了成功的尝试。     

Neighborhood Conditions and Helping Behavior in Late Life

The purpose of this study is to develop and test a latent variable model that explores the ways in which social structural factors influence the amount of social support that older adults provide to their social network members. Neighborhood conditions play a key role in this conceptual scheme. The findings provide support for the following conceptual linkages: (1) low parental education is associated with low respondent education; (2) older people with less education encounter more economic difficulty; (3) greater financial problems are associated with living in a rundown neighborhood; (4) older individuals who live in dilapidated neighborhoods are more hostile; and (5) older adults who are hostile are less likely to provide social support to their social network members. Research indicates that helping others is a key to successful aging. Ways must be found to help economically disadvantaged elders provide support to their social network members.     

求木之长先固本 欲流之远须浚源——环境科技支撑为更好环境管理服务的思考

回顾了云南省40年的环境科技工作,分析了存在的不足,提出了为环境管理提供支撑的改进措施。     

危险废物管理区域决策支持系统的研究与开发

在系统分析危险废物管理系统和环境信息系统发展现状与趋势的基础上,讨论了中国危险废物管理区域决策支持系统的设计原则并进行了系统分析与设计。研究采用将系统分化为子系统的设计方法,可以更方便的增加信息,增加功能,保证系统的可持续发展性。该区域决策支持系统的设计方法和结构框架对其他环境信息系统开发与设计具有借鉴意义。     

Assessing the role of learning devices and geovisualisation tools for collective action in natural resource management: Experiences from Vietnam

In northern Vietnam uplands the successive policy reforms that accompanied agricultural decollectivisation triggered very rapid changes in land use in the 1990s. From a centralized system of natural resource management, a multitude of individual strategies emerged which contributed to new production interactions among farming households, changes in landscape structures, and conflicting strategies among local stakeholders. Within this context of agrarian transition, learning devices can help local communities to collectively design their own course of action towards sustainable natural resource management. This paper presents a collaborative approach combining a number of participatory methods and geovisualisation tools (e.g., spatially explicit multi-agent models and role-playing games) with the shared goal to analyse and represent the interactions between: (i) decision-making processes by individual farmers based on the resource profiles of their farms; (ii) the institutions which regulate resource access and usage; and (iii) the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. This methodological pathway is illustrated by a case study in Bac Kan Province where it successfully led to a communication platform on natural resource management. In a context of rapid socioeconomic changes, learning devices and geovisualisation tools helped embed the participatory approach within a process of community development. The combination of different tools, each with its own advantages and constraints, proved highly relevant for supporting collective natural resource management.