Requisite Simplicities to Help Negotiate Complex Problems

Decision makers responsible for natural resource management often complain that science delivers fragmented information that is not useful at the scale of implementation. We offer a way of negotiating complex problems by putting forward a requisite simplicity. A requisite simplicity attempts to discard some detail, while retaining conceptual clarity and scientific rigor, and helps us move to a new position where we can benefit from new knowledge. We illustrate the above using three case studies: elephant densities and vegetation change in a national park, the use of rules of thumb to support decision making in agriculture, and the management of salt in irrigation. We identify potential requisite simplicities that can allow us to generate new understanding, lead to action and provide opportunities for structured learning.     

国外化学品环境管理和技术支撑体系发展概况(下)

概述了国外化学品环境管理和技术支撑体系发展现状,分析了我国化学品环境管理和技术支撑体系与国外的差距,针对国内化学品环境管理对科技的需求,提出了需优先开展的科学研究领域和课题建议.     

基于动态信任网络的突发事件模型库系统的研究

根据突发事件应急决策的需求,本文结合模型网络法和基于信任筛选器的模型组合方法,提出了动态信任网络的模型组合方法,实现了根据不同的突发事件和不同环境选择适合的模型进行模型组合。在运用动态信任网络模型组合方法的基础上,本文应用Agent技术提出了一种智能化较高的突发事件模型库,不仅增强了模型库的适应性和模型库的自学习功能,而且还可以对耦合灾害和复杂事件链的应急处置提供良好的模型决策支持功能。     

北京地铁义和庄站基坑支护结构及变形监测

结合北京地铁义和庄站深基坑支护变形监测方案,并通过大量实测数据对基坑的水平变形、钢支撑和锚索拉力变化规律进行了研究;并比较排桩、内支撑与排桩、锚索两种支护形式的变形差异.监测结果表明:围护结构的变形增量主要发生在基坑深层土体开挖及支撑结构架设前后阶段,在开挖至坑底后变形趋于稳定;支撑内力增加影响因素较多,包括地面堆载及温度影响;围护结构变形与支撑轴力变化具有显著的关联性;桩撑与桩锚支护结构的变形具有一定的差异性.     

多风机多级机站通风系统优化的模糊群体决策法

矿井通风系统是一个复杂的非线性系统,具有随机性、模糊性和不确定性特征。为了实现矿井通风的系统安全,对系统的安全性进行了定性、定量的预测分析和安全评价。按目标分层,用分层模糊优选理论对矿井通风系统设计方案进行优选,分层时允许评价因素重叠,从而便于确定目标与评价因素的权重。对矿井通风系统建立了多个设计方案的评判指标体系,并应用模糊群体决策确定矿井通风系统方案评判指标的权值,研究成果已应用于中条山有色金属公司胡家峪铜矿通风系统优化研究中,获得了满意的结果。     

GIS and multiple-criteria evaluation for the optimisation of tsetse fly eradication programmes

Tsetse flies are the vectors of trypanosomes, the causal agent of trypanosomiasis, a widespread disease of livestock and people in Africa. Control of tsetse may open vast areas of land to livestock-keeping, with the associated benefits of developing mixed crop-livestock production systems. However, as well as possible positive impacts there are also risks: bush clearing would accelerate and cattle numbers would rise, leading to a reduction of vegetation cover, and an increase in runoff and erosion; there may also be increased pressure on conserved areas and reductions in biodiversity. The objective of this study is to show how remotely sensed and other environmental data can be combined in a decision support system to help inform tsetse control programmes in a manner that could be used to limit possible detrimental effects of tsetse control. For Zambia, a methodology is developed that combines a tree-based decision-support approach with the use of Multiple-Criteria Evaluation (MCE), within a Geographical Information System (GIS), in order to target areas for tsetse control. The results show clear differentiation of priority areas under a series of hypothetical scenarios, and some areas (e.g. northwest of Petauke in the Eastern Province of Zambia) are consistently flagged as high priority for control. It is also demonstrated that priority areas do not comprise isolated tsetse populations, meaning that disease control using an integrated approach is likely to be more economically viable than local eradication.     

The Challenge of Civil-military Relations in International Peace Operations

The relationship between military and civilian humanitarian organisations has developed in an increasingly integrative way. Military initiatives to institutionalise the relationship, since the interventions in Somalia and the Balkans, entail a dilution of humanitarian independence as was manifested in practice in Kosovo. Further, the state-centric foundations of military intervention run counter to the potential for humanitarian organisations to foster a cosmopolitan ethos that would not only preserve humanitarian principles but also contest statist assumptions about conflict, development and power.     

基于SDSS的水环境决策系统技术研究

空间决策支持系统(SDSS)作为地理信息系统与决策支持系统的结合体,兼有两者优点。文章将空间决策支持技术引入水环境计算中,讨论如何将水环境预测模型、决策分析方法与空间分析技术进行有机的结合,分析水环境空间决策模型的结构和建立过程,并结合应用实例——突发性水污染事故应急系统为例,阐明了其应用模型的特点,最后给出了相应的建设性结果。     

长江经济带城市生态承载力时空格局研究

生态承载力评价研究的开展,对于促进区域可持续发展具有重要的指导意义。以长江经济带130地市为例,从生态支撑力和生态压力两方面对生态承载力进行量化研究,通过构建较为完整的生态承载力综合评价指标体系,利用熵值法对评价指标进行赋权,对长江经济带城市生态支撑力、生态压力和生态承载力状况进行评价,探讨了2003、2008和2013年长江经济带生态支撑力、生态压力和生态承载力的空间格局及其影响因素。结果表明:2003~2013年间长江经济带生态支撑力逐渐上升,空间格局由上、下、中游梯度递减向中、上、下游梯度递减转变;生态压力持续增大,空间格局均为下、中、上游梯度递减;生态承载力先下降后上升,空间格局由上、中、下游梯度递减向中、上、下游梯度递减转变。生态承载力影响因素由环境治理和节能减排主导转变为由社会进步和经济发展主导。     

Media Use and Public Perceptions of Global Warming in India

Media plays a vital role in informing the public about environmental threats. Although climate change is a global problem, developing countries such as India are often more vulnerable to the impacts due to poverty, illiteracy, and low public awareness. Using data from a nationally representative survey in India, this paper explores the relationships between media use, issue attention, and trust in informational sources on one hand and science-based climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support on the other. Results suggest that the Indian media, through consistent and accurate coverage of global warming using trusted sources, can play a positive role in increasing public engagement among a largely unaware population. Implications for climate change communication in India are discussed.