高校宿舍楼火灾及人员疏散数值研究

为研究高校宿舍火灾烟气蔓延过程与人员疏散效果的相关联系,利用数值模拟研究了不同火灾场景下烟气流动、能见度、温度随时间变化的规律,及其对人员安全疏散的影响。研究表明:(1)火灾发生后,由于烟囱效应,烟气迅速在楼梯间蓄积,形成蓄烟池效应,堵塞疏散通道,然后逐渐发展至上部的楼层空间,对人员安全疏散极为不利;(2)高校宿舍楼人员较为集中,火灾发生时疏散人员在楼梯间易出现拥堵,人员火灾安全疏散的形势较为严峻;(3)喷淋、宿舍人数控制、建筑结构优化等安全措施能有效提高人员疏散效果,降低火灾危险性;(4)研究成果能为建筑防火设计、消防整改和宿舍管理提供科学依据。     

Explosion at an aluminum factory caused by the July 2018 Japan floods: Investigation of damages and evacuation activities

An explosion at an aluminum factory occurred due to floods in Soja City, Okayama Prefecture, in July 2018. This study investigates the accident, its overall impact on local residents, and emergency management activities. The results of the study showed that several nearby structures and homes were damaged by the explosion. Concern for more explosions has led to the evacuation of residents of Shimobara area of Soja City. In Shimobara, residents had carried out voluntary disaster prevention activities before the disaster. After the explosion, Shimobara residents were able to evacuate safely in cooperation with the voluntary disaster prevention organization and the local government agency. The study revealed that there was a lack of information on chemical accident hazards shared by the factory with local government authorities and first responders, as well as with local residents. In order to be better prepared for technological accidents, and in particular accidents caused by natural disasters (known as Natechs), mechanisms for information sharing between companies and municipalities should be adopted.     

Evidence of an Edge Effect on Avian Nest Success

Abstract:  Habitat fragmentation may modify ecological patterns by increasing the importance of edge effects, including elevating rates of predation on avian nests. Conventional wisdom suggests an increased rate of predation along habitat edges, and previous reviews support this view. These reviews did not apply recent statistical approaches, however, and some were based on a small number of studies. In our meta-analysis of 64 nest-predation experiments, our results supported prior reviews of the general pattern of increased nest predation along habitat edges (  p < 0.01). We separated studies into ecologically relevant categories and found the following patterns: (1) Edge effects were more pronounced in North America and northwestern Europe than in central Europe or Central America. This result may be biased, however, by the different habitats studied in the regions. (2) Marshes and deciduous forests had significant edge effects, whereas edge effects were not apparent in coniferous forests, tropical forests, or fields. (3) Ground and natural nest studies were more likely to exhibit edge effects. (4) Edge effects were detected in studies that used quail eggs and real eggs. (5) Edge effects were not significant when artificial nests were exposed for typical incubation periods, but were significant for shorter exposures. Three alternative hypotheses may explain increased nest predation along edges. The edge-effects hypothesis states that increased nest losses along edges are the result of the habitat discontinuity. The landscape-structure hypothesis states that more fragmented landscapes are more heavily depredated by nest predators. The human-disturbance hypothesis states that near anthropogenic edges increased nest predation is related to human activities. Nest-predation experiments should be placed in a landscape context to reveal differences between the hypotheses.     

定性物理模拟FM上下V拔长圆柱体

采用定性物理模拟的方法对FM上下V锻造法锻件心部的应力状态进行了实验分析,得出了当上砧宽比W/D_0=0.34时,锻件心部处于三向压应力的结果。实验结果与定量物理模拟相吻合。     

大别山1846 — 2010年干湿变化记录——来自树轮宽度的证据

中国亚热带地区树轮气候学研究已取得较大进展,但气候重建基本都集中在温度方面,基于树轮宽度的水文气候研究鲜有成果,不利于全面理解亚热带地区历史气候变化特征。本文基于北亚热带大别山地区黄山松树轮宽度年表与气候要素的相关分析,发现树轮宽度指数与上一年4—7月平均相对湿度显著负相关（r=?0.68,p<0.01）。在此基础上,重建了大别山地区1846—2010年4—7月平均相对湿度变化历史。重建序列方差解释量达到46.4%（调整自由度后为45.3%）。在整个重建时段中存在3个湿润期（1891—1903,1905—1921和1950—1993年）和3个干旱期（1868—1890,1922—1934和1994—2005年）。同时,重建序列与采样地周边区域旱涝指数以及天目山的相对湿度重建序列在年代际尺度上高度相关,说明过去165年间中国东南亚热带较大区域范围内的干湿变化在年代际尺度上较为同步。空间分析结果表明重建序列也能够在一定程度上指示研究区及周边较大区域范围内的土壤湿度变化。综上,利用树轮宽度指标重建的大别山的相对湿度变化为研究亚热带地区干湿演化历史提供了参考依据,完善了时间尺度上亚热带地区相对湿度数据,同时也证实了亚热带1990年以后干旱化趋势的出现。     

The current status and future issues in human evacuation from ships

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) developed guidelines in May 1999 for the evacuation analysis of Ro-Ro passenger ships to prevent loss of life in maritime accidents. However, IMO considered these guidelines only as an interim measure and allocated 3 years for their improvement and further development as very limited experience and data were available. In this paper, the requirements of the IMO and current research regarding ship evacuation are reviewed. In addition, applicable evacuation models are presented as well as several experimental methods of obtaining the data of human behavior in regard to listing and the dynamic effect of waves on a ship are evaluated. Recommendations on further issues are discussed at the end.     

地铁车站站台火灾中人员的安全疏散

笔者分析了地铁站台火灾时火灾临界危险条件和人员的疏散特点 ,提出了地铁站台火灾中人员安全疏散模型 ,确定了人员安全疏散时间的计算方法 ;应用火灾模拟软件SMARTFIRE4 .0对某地铁站站台着火时温度和烟气浓度的发展进行了数值模拟研究 ,据此得到人员安全疏散可利用的时间 ;结合该站台着火时的具体情况 ,计算了人员安全疏散所需要的时间。研究与计算结果表明 :该地铁站火灾时 ,站台至站厅的楼梯是整个疏散过程的瓶颈 ,而楼梯的疏散能力主要受人员流量和楼梯的有效宽度所制约 ,据此提出了相应的解决方法。     

重大事故人员应急疏散模型研究

介绍了遗传算法和毒负荷的基本概念,给出了基于有毒气体泄漏事故后果预测仿真人员疏散最佳路径选择的遗传算法的模型。在该模型中,人员疏散最佳路径选择算法与遗传算法在该领域的应用较为新颖,且有一定的实用价值,可为事故的预防准备和现场决策提供支持     

Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys

Abstract

Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk.     

北京市不同主干道绿地群落对大气PM2.5浓度消减作用的影响

为研究城市道路两侧不同绿化带宽度及不同植物群落配置模式对消减大气中PM2.5浓度的作用,选择北京市四环主干道旁3种典型植物群落配置类型作为试验监测点,对0 m、6 m、16 m、26 m、36 m不同绿带宽度下PM2.5浓度分布与变化进行监测,并对其消减能力进行计算,分析PM2.5浓度变化与道路车流量、绿化带宽度及植物群落配置模式之间的关系。结果表明：（1）PM2.5浓度的日变化与车流量的日变化特征一致,道路绿地空气中PM2.5浓度的日变化呈现双峰单谷型特征,即早晚高、白天低,PM2.5浓度在8：00-10：00的交通早高峰期间增加,而后开始下降,到12：00-14：00左右达到最低值,之后呈持续上升状态,直至晚高峰19：00浓度达一天中的最大值。（2）不同植物群落配置模式对大气中PM2.5浓度的消减作用不同,群落内郁闭度高的多复层结构绿地对PM2.5消减作用优于郁闭度低的单层配置绿地模式;（3）分别对3类空气质量条件下,道路绿地对PM2.5消减作用进行评价。无污染或轻度污染（PM2.5〈100μg·m-3）环境下,绿地对PM2.5消减作用明显,26 m及36 m的绿带处消减作用最强,最高可达12.22%;中度污染（101μg·m-3201μg·m-3）天气条件下3种绿地对PM2.5的消减作用均不明显。