BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

Prevention of gasoline vapor explosions in portable fuel containers

Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs) made for consumer use can, under unusual circumstances, develop a flammable atmosphere in the container headspace. In order to prevent an inadvertent ignition from causing flame propagation into this headspace and a subsequent explosion or flame jetting, PFC manufacturers are developing prototype Flame Mitigation Devices (FMDs) for installation in the PFC. A test method is described in this paper to determine if the installed FMD will indeed prevent flame entry into the PFC in a high-challenge flame propagation scenario. The method entails the use of a butane-air mixture ignited in a 5 cm diameter, 12 cm long tube attached to either the container neck or a spout on the container neck. Two concept FMD designs have successfully prevented repeated attempts at flame propagation into the PFC and have also produced encouraging results in tests for fuel flow restriction, duel dispensing nozzle friction, and prolonged fuel exposure. Versions of these tests are currently being promulgated in a draft ASTM standard on PFC FMDs.     

Experimental study on the synergistic inhibition effect of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist on gas explosion in a vented duct

In this study, in order to research the synergistic inhibition effect of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist on gas explosion in a vented duct, a semi-confined transparent chamber was designed with the size of 120 × 120 × 840 mm, and the experiments were carried out with stoichiometric methane/air premixed mixture (fraction of methane: 9.5%), adding different fractions of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist. The experimental results showed the following: The combination of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist had a synergistic inhibiting effect on methane/air explosion, which was preferable to the single use of any kind. With the increase of spraying time of water mist and fraction of nitrogen, the initial shape of the explosion flame became snakelike, and at the same time the peak flame propagation speed and peak overpressure decreased significantly. When the nitrogen fraction was increased to 10% and the mist spraying time was increased to 2min, synergistic inhibiting effect on overpressure was high efficient. However, with the increase of spraying time of water mist and fraction of nitrogen going on, the amount of increase of explosion inhibition efficiency was gradually reduced.     

Experimental study on explosion inhibition by heptafluoropropane and its synergy with inert gas

The inhibition effect of heptafluoropropane (CF₃CHFCF₃) on methane explosions under different inhibitor concentrations in a closed vessel was studied. A high-speed camera and a pressure sensor were adopted respectively to record flame propagation characteristics and pressure data. Results indicate that the relationship between flame propagation and pressure rising was correlated. As the equivalent ratio (ϕ)≤1, the pressure presented a trend of rising firstly and then decreasing with increasing CF₃CHFCF₃ concentration, and it was found that there existed a critical concentration for pressure decrease. As ϕ > 1, the pressure exhibited a decreasing trend. Although the pressure appeared to seemingly increase, the moment that the pressure began to rise (t_rise) and the moment that the maximum explosion overpressure appeared (t_Pmax) were obviously delayed. The average rate of pressure rise ((dP/dt)_ave) was decreased as the concentration of CF3CHFCF3 increased. It indicates that CF₃CHFCF₃ can effectively reduce the explosion reaction rate. The critical concentration of CF₃CHFCF₃ for complete inhibition was determined. Meanwhile, the synergy of CF₃CHFCF₃-inert gas can improve the inhibition effect. Compared with CF₃CHFCF₃–N₂, the synergy of CF₃CHFCF₃–CO₂ presented a better inhibition effect, and the inhibition effect was increased with increasing inert gas concentration. And the mechanisms of physical and chemical effects on explosion inhibition were analyzed.     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

Archaeological Evidence of Validity of Fish Populations on Unexploited Reefs as Proxy Targets for Modern Populations

Reef‐fish management and conservation is hindered by a lack of information on fish populations prior to large‐scale contemporary human impacts. As a result, relatively pristine sites are often used as conservation baselines for populations near sites affected by humans. This space‐for‐time approach can only be validated by sampling assemblages through time. We used archaeological remains to evaluate whether the remote, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) might provide a reasonable proxy for a lightly exploited baseline in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We used molecular and morphological techniques to describe the taxonomic and size composition of the scarine parrotfish catches present in 2 archaeological assemblages from the MHI, compared metrics of these catches with modern estimates of reproductive parameters to evaluate whether catches represented by the archaeological material were consistent with sustainable fishing, and evaluated overlap between size structures represented by the archaeological material and modern survey data from the MHI and the NWHI to assess whether a space‐for‐time substitution is reasonable. The parrotfish catches represented by archaeological remains were consistent with sustainable fishing because they were dominated by large, mature individuals whose average size remained stable from prehistoric (AD approximately 1400–1700) through historic (AD 1700–1960) periods. The ancient catches were unlike populations in the MHI today. Overlap between the size structure of ancient MHI catches and modern survey data from the NWHI or the MHI was an order of magnitude greater for the NWHI comparison, a result that supports the validity of using the NWHI parrotfish data as a proxy for the MHI before accelerated, heavy human impacts in modern times. Evidencia Arqueológica de la Validez de Poblaciones de Peces en Arrecifes Sin Explotar como Objetivos de Apoderamiento para Poblaciones Actuales     

Tracking a half century of media reporting on gray wolves

Natural resource and wildlife managers must balance the disparate priorities of a diversity of stakeholders. To manage these priorities, a firm understanding of topics salient to the public is needed. The media often report on issues of importance to the public; therefore, these reports may be a useful measure of public interest. However, efficient methods for distinguishing diverse topics related to a wildlife management issue reported in the media and changes in the salience of those topics have been lacking. We used latent Dirichlet allocation, a Bayesian mixture model, to quantitatively assess the salience of topics surrounding the gray wolf (Canis lupus), which was reintroduced to Idaho (U.S.A.) in 1995. We analyzed articles published from 1960 to 2015 in an Idaho newspaper. We identified 6 distinct topics associated with gray wolves: policy, hunting, biological status, implementation of management, recovery, and human-wolf conflict. The salience of topics pre- and postreintroduction of wolves (1995) and pre- and postdelisting of wolves from the U.S. Endangered Species Act (2009) differed significantly, underscoring that these events were turning points in how issues were being publicly discussed and framed. Articles written by the local reporters were more likely to report on topics regarding conflict between humans and wolves, whereas articles sourced from a national outlet reported more on topics pertaining to wolf policy and biological status. In the context of managing a contentious, far-ranging, and long-lived wildlife species, our methods can help guide the location and timing of a suite of management strategies (e.g., media relation plans and stakeholder engagement) that promote human-wildlife coexistence across different landscapes.     

Evaluation of thermal reaction for two azo compounds by using 20-L apparatus and calorimetry

Azo compounds are widely involved in the industrial processes of dyes, pigments, initiators, and blowing agents. Unfortunately, these compounds have a bivalent unstable –NN– composition, which can be readily broken when the ambient temperature is elevated. Self-accelerating decomposition might cause a runaway reaction and lead to a fire, explosion, or leakage when the cooling system fails or other events occur. This study investigated the explosion properties, thermal stability parameters, and thermal hazard and mechanism of 2,2′–azobisisobutyronitrile (AIBN) and 2,2′–azobis–2–methylbutyronitrile (AMBN). We used a 20-L apparatus, vent sizing package 2, synchronous thermal analysis, and differential scanning calorimetry under explosive, adiabatic, and dynamic conditions to acquire the explosive curves, thermal curves, and thermodynamic parameters of the substances. Moreover, the differential isoconversional method (Friedman method) and ASTM E698 equation were employed to obtain the apparent activation energy E_a. All the experimental results revealed that AIBN is more dangerous than AMBN. The E_a of AIBN was lower than that of AMBN. The results can be used to construct an azo compound thermal hazard database for use for searches and reference examples by industry and related research areas.     

驾驶员风险认知能力对交通安全的影响

为辨别不同驾驶员风险认知能力对驾驶安全的影响。通过设置13种存在潜在风险的交通情景,引入惩罚用时机制,利用驾驶模拟器,对熟练驾驶员和非熟练驾驶员在风险认知培训前后的风险认知能力进行比较,找出不同驾驶员对风险认知的差异。试验结果显示,熟练驾驶员的风险认知能力比非熟练驾驶员要高,两者在引起交通风险的因素上是不同的,培训后的风险认知能力较之前有很大提高。培训能够拓宽驾驶员对潜在风险的认知程度,更好地将驾驶员的操作技能、知识体系和外在行为衔接在一起,从而减少交通事故的发生。     

Explosion characteristics of micron- and nano-size magnesium powders

Explosion characteristics of micron- and nano-size magnesium powders were determined using CSIR-CBRI 20-L Sphere, Hartmann apparatus and Godbert-Greenwald furnace to study influence of particle size reduction to nano-range on these. The explosion parameters investigated are: maximum explosion pressure (P_max), maximum rate of pressure-rise (dP/dt)_max, dust explosibility index (K_St), minimum explosible concentration (MEC), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), limiting oxygen concentration (LOC) and effect of reduced oxygen level on explosion severity. Magnesium particle sizes are: 125, 74, 38, 22, 10 and 1 μm; and 400, 200, 150, 100, 50 and 30 nm. Experimental results indicate significant increase in explosion severity (P_max: 7–14 bar, K_St: 98–510 bar·m/s) as particle size decreases from 125 to 1 μm, it is maximum for 400 nm (P_max: 14.6 bar, K_St: 528 bar·m/s) and decreases with further decrease of particle size to nano-range 200–30 nm (P_max: 12.4–9.4 bar, K_St: 460–262 bar·m/s) as it is affected by agglomeration of nano-particles. MEC decreases from 160 to 30 g/m³ on decreasing particle size from 125 to 1 μm, its value is 30 g/m³ for 400 and 200 nm and 20 g/m³ for further decrease in nano-range (150–30 nm). MIE reduces from 120 to 2 mJ on decreasing the particle size from 125 to 1 μm, its value is 1 mJ for 400, 200, 150 nm size and <1 mJ for 50 and 30 nm. Minimum ignition temperature is 600 °C for 125 μm magnesium, it varies between 570 and 450 °C for sizes 38–1 μm and 400–350 °C for size range 400–30 nm. Magnesium powders in nano-range (30–200 nm) explode less violently than micron-range powder. However, likelihood of explosion increases significantly for nano-range magnesium. LOC is 5% for magnesium size range 125–38 μm, 4% for 22–1 μm, 3% for 400 nm, 4% for 200, 150 and 100 nm, and 5% for 50 and 30 nm. Reduction in oxygen levels to 9% results in decrease in P_max and K_St by a factor of 2–3 and 4–5, respectively, for micron as well as nano-sizes. The experimental data presented will be useful for industries producing or handling similar size range micron- and nano-magnesium in order to evaluate explosibility of their magnesium powders and propose/design adequate safety measures.