A classification tree based modeling approach for segment related crashes on multilane highways

Introduction

This study presents a classification tree based alternative to crash frequency analysis for analyzing crashes on mid-block segments of multilane arterials.

Method

The traditional approach of modeling counts of crashes that occur over a period of time works well for intersection crashes where each intersection itself provides a well-defined unit over which to aggregate the crash data. However, in the case of mid-block segments the crash frequency based approach requires segmentation of the arterial corridor into segments of arbitrary lengths. In this study we have used random samples of time, day of week, and location (i.e., milepost) combinations and compared them with the sample of crashes from the same arterial corridor. For crash and non-crash cases, geometric design/roadside and traffic characteristics were derived based on their milepost locations. The variables used in the analysis are non-event specific and therefore more relevant for roadway safety feature improvement programs. First classification tree model is a model comparing all crashes with the non-crash data and then four groups of crashes (rear-end, lane-change related, pedestrian, and single-vehicle/off-road crashes) are separately compared to the non-crash cases. The classification tree models provide a list of significant variables as well as a measure to classify crash from non-crash cases. ADT along with time of day/day of week are significantly related to all crash types with different groups of crashes being more likely to occur at different times.

Conclusions

From the classification performance of different models it was apparent that using non-event specific information may not be suitable for single vehicle/off-road crashes.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysis community an additional tool to assess safety without having to aggregate the corridor crash data over arbitrary segment lengths.     

横向风对浮力扩散火焰的振荡影响研究

火焰振荡频率是火灾科学研究领域的一个重要基本参数,对横向风下火焰振荡频率的研究可以为火灾图像探测的参数设置提供理论依据。针对浮力扩散火焰(0.6×10~(-5)弗洛德数Fr2×10~(-2),10~2理查德森数Ri10~5),本研究将横向风条件下火焰结构假设为倾斜的柱状,通过对燃烧产生的浮力和横向风产生的拖曳力进行动力学分析,得出横向风条件下火焰振荡频率表达公式。结合实验结果得出,火焰振荡频率的理论值和实验值均随拖曳系数的增大(即外界风速的增加)而增大,但实验值的上升趋势较理论值平缓.这是因为公式忽略了风速对火焰温度和系数K的影响。     

Improved models of failure time for atmospheric tanks under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires

Fire accidents of chemical installations may cause domino effects in atmospheric tank farms, where a large amount of hazardous substances are stored or processed. Pool fire is a major form of fire accidents, and the thermal radiation from pool fire is the primary hazard of domino accidents. The coupling of multiple pool fires is a realistic and important accident phenomenon that enhances the propagation of domino accidents. However, previous research has mostly focused on the escalation of domino accidents induced by a single pool fire. To overcome the drawback, in this study, the failure of a storage tank under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires was studied in view of spatial and temporal synergistic process. The historical accident statistics indicated that the accident scenario of two-pool fires accounted for 30.6% in pool fires. The domino accident scenario involving three tanks is analyzed, and the typical layout of tanks is isosceles right triangle based on Chinese standard “GB50341-2014”. The thermal response and damage of a target tank heated by pool fires were numerically investigated. The volume of 500 m³, 3000 m³, 5000 m³ and 10000 m³ were selected. Flame temperature was obtained by FDS, and then was input onto the finite element model. The temperature field and stress field of target tanks were simulated by ABAQUS. The results showed that the temperature rise rate of the target tanks under multiple pool fires was higher than that under a single pool fire. The failure time of the tank under the coupling effect of multiple fires was lower than that under the superposition of multiple fires without the first stage. The stress and yield strength were compared to judge the failure of the target tank. The model of failure time for the tank under the coupling effect of pool fires was established. Through the verification, the deviation of this model is 4.02%, which is better than the deviation of 15.76% with Cozzani's model.     

中国技术灾害的时序变化与区域差异

近年来,由于生产的全球化、工业水平的迅速提高、技术系统的复杂化和规模化,以及社会结构急剧变化,我国技术灾害的发生频次增多,强度加剧,经济损失趋于上升.技术灾害继自然灾害之后,已逐渐发展为威胁我国人民生命安全和生存环境的主要灾种.基于技术灾害数据库,从致灾因子多度、风险频数、相对损失强度和综合风险指数等4个方面对中国技术灾害的时序变化和区域差异进行了分析与探讨,以期加深对中国技术灾害的系统认识,并为中国技术灾害的风险管理提供依据.     

基于能量合成法的塔式结构刚度识别研究

在Rayleigh能量法和Southwell's频率合成法的基础上,将结构的振动基频表示为由各变形元和惯性元组成的子系统频率的合成,其中变形元为结构的弯曲变形和剪切变形,惯性元为结构的分布质量和塔顶附加质量。通过选取满足边界条件的挠度函数,建立了底部固定、顶端带有附加质量的塔式结构基频与刚度的关系,因此可通过测量结构的振动基频识别出塔式结构的抗弯刚度和抗剪刚度。以某钢塔为计算实例,采用该算法推导出了结构振动基频与弹性模量的关系,只要知道截面的几何尺寸和材料性质,便可快速识别出各截面的刚度。有限元空间建模计算结果证明了本文提出的算法具有较高精度。该方法适合底部固定的塔式结构,可为复杂空间塔式结构使用状态的监测与评估提供参考。     

北京地区第五阶段在用轻型车OBD监测频率的特征分析

随机采集北京地区200辆满足第5阶段排放标准在用车的车载诊断系统（OBD）的IUPR（OBD监测频率）数据,测试了4种典型车系的在用车在实际道路行驶工况下IUPR各监测项的特征分布,并和NEDC工况下的实验结果进行对比.结果表明：采集数据车辆的OBD系统均能实现对催化器和氧传感器的监控,对EGR和次级氧传感器的监控也可分别达到74%和91%;在用车平均点火循环3.9次才能满足一次目前IUPR的监测条件;各监测项IUPR均值均远大于国五标准限值0.10,但各IUPR监测值分布存在差异,催化转化器和氧传感器的达标率均为92%;实验室NEDC模拟工况基本能实现对各车系机动车尾气排放控制的监测,但4条实际道路测试结果则表明不同车系IUPR监测项分子+1的差异较大;拥堵路况的低速工况下OBD系统难以实现对车辆尾气排放控制系统各监测项的有效监测.因此,需结合北京实际路况进一步完善在用车辆OBD系统的监测条件,实现对北京在用车尾气排放控制系统的有效监控.     

脉冲式流量波动对厌氧氨氧化UASB反应器的影响

通过试验模拟不同幅度、不同频率的脉冲式进水流量波动,研究脉冲式流量波动对已稳定运行的厌氧氨氧化UASB反应器性能的冲击影响.结果表明,在脉冲波动幅度小于60mL/min（上升流速1.33cm/min）范围内,厌氧氨氧化UASB反应器表现出良好的适应性和承受力,甚至对于高频率的波动冲击,出水也可达到一级A标准,NH₄⁺-N和NO₂^--N去除率都基本维持在80%以上,总氮去除率维持在70%以上.而当脉冲的波动幅度为100mL/min（上升流速2.22cm/min）时,则UASB反应器的出水水质波动性大,随着波动频率的增大,反应器的适应时间增长,一直到波动频率为1.5h时,反应器出水NH₄⁺-N和NO₂^--N浓度难以稳定在5mg/L以下.随着波动幅度由40mL/min增大到60,100mL/min,反应器内污泥中厌氧氨氧化菌的丰度值和厌氧氨氧化菌占全细菌的百分含量均呈现先增多后减少的趋势,在波动幅度为60mL/min时均为最大,可能是由于此时污泥和基质的混合与接触更为高效,氮去除效率高,更有利于厌氧氨氧化菌的生长.     

一起钢质无缝气瓶爆炸事故技术分析

文章简要描述了一起消防气体灭火钢质气瓶爆炸事故,对爆炸气瓶进行了断口分析、金相试验和理化试验,并分析了事故的原因,提醒制造厂家规范制造工艺,对预防类似事故的发生具有一定的参考意义。     

绿化带对不同频率城市交通噪声的衰减作用

植物绿化对交通噪声具有一定的阻挡与衰减作用,其衰减效果取决于绿化带的构成、纵深等。研究选取杭州西湖风景区5个绿化带和1个空地区,测量1/3倍频程下交通噪声的衰减情况。结果表明：10 m左右纵深的绿化带可使交通噪声降低3-5 dB;绿化带的降噪效果在中低频要好于高频,最高在315-400 Hz之间;绿化带辅助地形的下降可有效提高降噪效果;绿化带中乔木选用阔叶类植物的降噪量高于针叶类植物3 dB左右,在低频段降噪量的提升要高于中高频段。     

Occupational exposures,delivered doses and exposure limits for chromium and nickel†

The interaction of HCH (50 mg/kg) and dietary protein levels on microsomal drug metabolizing enzymes system and liver lipids were studied in the rats for 90 days. The results indicated that rats fed a lower protein diet and HCH has a higher rate of mortality, lower rate of growth and an increased liver weight. A significant induction in the hepatic microsomal aminopyrine‐N‐demethylase, p‐nitroanisole‐O‐dealkylase, benzo(a)pyrene hydroxylase and glutathione‐S‐transferase activity was observed in pesticide treated animals as compared to control animals. The pathological changes observed in liver of HCH treated animals consisted mainly of necrosis and fatty degeneration of hepatocytes. HCH also induced the significant accumulation of cholesterol, triglycerides, phospholipid and total lipid in liver in low protein diet animals. Protein accelerates the metabolism of HCH, resulting in a decrease of HCH concentration with the increase of dietary protein level. A close correlation existed between lipid accumulation, induction of drug metabolizing enzyme system and deposition of HCH in liver.