论降低我国道路交通事故致死率的措施

阐述我国交通事故人身伤害的严重性 ,参照发达国家交通安全经验 ,提出了减轻伤害、降低交通事故致死率的措施     

Pitfalls in the application of utility functions to the valuation of human life

Safety strategies in the process and other industries depend ultimately on how much the owners and operators decide should be spent on protection systems to protect workers and the public from potential plant hazards. An important input to decisions of this sort is the value of life, which needs to be assessed in a valid manner so that safety decisions can be made properly. A key reference point for decisions on safety investment decisions in the UK is a 1999 study on the “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF), which employs a two-injury chained model that has been shown previously by the present authors to possess internal inconsistencies. The 1999 study made extensive use of utility functions to interpret survey data, and it is this feature that is explored in this paper. It will be explained here how different forms of utility function of the Exponential family can produce the same figure for an intermediate parameter in the calculation of the VPF from the two-injury chained model. Exponential utility functions are, however, unlikely to provide a realistic representation if their calculated risk-aversions need to be negative or zero in order to match survey data, which would imply an incautious attitude amongst those taking decisions on safety. The use of an incompletely specified wealth threshold in the utility modelling is explored in the light of a proposal by the authors of the 1999 study that a second utility function can be used to determine the individual's utility when his wealth lies below the threshold, which constitutes the lower limit of validity of the first utility function. The proposition is shown to be untenable. The results presented in this paper raise further concerns about the lack of validity of the 1999 study on which the UK VPF is based and hence on the safety decisions that have been made in consequence.     

Validation of not-at-fault driver representativeness assumption for quasi-induced exposure using U.S. national traffic databases

Introduction:The quasi-induced exposure (QIE) method has been widely implemented into traffic safety research. One of the key assumptions of QIE method is that not-at-fault drivers represent the driving population at the time of a crash. Recent studies have validated the QIE representative assumption using not-at-fault drivers from three-or-more vehicle crashes (excluding the first not-at-fault drivers; D3_other) as the reference group in single state crash databases. However, it is unclear if the QIE representativeness assumption is valid on a national scale and is a representative sample of driving population in the United States. The aims of this study were to assess the QIE representativeness assumption on a national scale and to evaluate if D3_other could serve as a representative sample of the U.S. driving population. Method: Using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the National Occupant Protection Use Survey (NOPUS), distributions of driver gender, age, vehicle type, time, and roadway type among the not-at-fault drivers in clean two-vehicle crashes, the first not-at-fault drivers in three-or-more-vehicle crashes, and the remaining not-at-fault drivers in three-or-more vehicle crashes were compared to the driver population observed in NOPUS. Results: The results showed that with respect to driver gender, vehicle type, time, and roadway type, drivers among D3_other did not show statistical significant difference from NOPUS observations. The age distribution of D3_other driver was not practically different to NOPUS observations. Conclusions: Overall, we conclude that D3_other drivers in FARS represents the driving population at the time of the crash. Practical applications: Our study provides a solid foundation for future studies to utilize D3_other as the reference group to validate the QIE representativeness assumption and has potential to increase the generalizability of future FARS studies.     

The safest seat: effect of seating position on occupant mortality

INTRODUCTION: This study investigated the survival rates of occupants of passenger cars involved in a fatal crash between 2000 and 2003. METHODS: The information from every fatal crash in the United States between 2000 and 2003 was analyzed. Variables such as seat position, point of impact, rollover, restraint use, vehicle type, vehicle weight, occupant age, and injury severity were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Univariate and a full logistic multivariate model analyses were performed. RESULTS: The data show that the rear middle seat is safer than any other occupant position when involved in a fatal crash. Overall, the rear (2(nd) row) seating positions have a 29.1% (Univariate Analysis, p<.0001, OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.22 - 1.37) increased odds of survival over the first row seating positions and the rear middle seat has a 25% (Univariate Analysis, p<.0001, OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.17 - 1.34) increased odds of survival over the other rear seat positions. After correcting for potential confounders, occupants of the rear middle seat have a 13% (Logistic Regression, p<.001, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.26) increased chance of survival when involved in a crash with a fatality than occupants in other rear seats. CONCLUSION: This study has shown that the safest position for any occupant involved in a motor-vehicle crash is the rear middle seat. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results of this research may impact how automobile manufacturers look at future rear middle seat designs. If the rear seat was to be designed exactly like its outboard counterparts (headrest, armrests, lap and shoulder belt, etc.) people may choose to sit on it more often rather than waiting to use it out of necessity due to multiple rear seat occupants.     

Characteristics of vehicles driven by teens and adults killed in crashes, 2013–2017

Introduction: Teen drivers experience higher crash risk than their experienced adult counterparts. Legislative and community outreach methods have attempted to reduce this risk; results have been mixed. The increasing presence of vehicle safety features across the fleet has driven fatality numbers down in the past decades, but the disparity between young drivers and others remains. Method: We merged Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data on fatal crashes with vehicle characteristic data from the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI). The analysis compared the vehicle type, size, age, and the presence of select safety features in vehicles driven by teens (ages 15–17 years) and adult drivers (ages 35–50 years) who were killed in crashes from 2013 to 2017. Results were compared with a similar analysis conducted on data from 2007 to 2012. Results: Teen drivers were more likely than their adult counterparts to be killed while driving older, smaller vehicles that were less likely to have the option to be equipped with side airbags. Discussion: Teenage drivers remain more likely to be killed while driving older, smaller vehicles than adult drivers. Parents and guardians are mainly responsible for teen vehicle choice, and should keep vehicle size, weight, and safety features in mind when placing their teen in a vehicle. Practical Application: These findings can help guide safer vehicle choice for new teen drivers.     

Fatality and influence factors in high-casualty fires: A correspondence analysis

The technology of correspondence analysis was applied to high-casualty fire data in China. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between fatality levels and influence factors that involve place, cause, time of day, month, year and province. The variable fatality in a fire has four levels: 3, 4-5, 6-9 and ?10. The results show that hotels, welfare houses and hospitals tend to be strongly associated with fatality level ?10. The fires caused by work-related tasks tend to precipitate a relatively high number of fatalities and are strongly associated with fatality level 6-9. Fires that occur in the daytime (8:00-19:59) are associated with higher fatalities than fires that occur at night (20:00-7:59). The months in the cold season, such as winter or the beginning of spring, tend to be associated with fatality levels 4-5, 6-9 and ?10. CA dynamically portrayed the fatality tendency over the past 8 years, and 2007 tended to be associated with fatality level ?10. Fatality characteristics of provinces are identified, and Beijing, Shandong and Jilin are strongly associated with fatality level ?10. To explore whether associations between influence factors and fatality levels of high-casualty fires in China resemble corresponding associations of HCFs in the United States, data on fires with fatality level ?5 in the two countries were collected. The results of four sets of comparisons indicate that the associations between influences and fatality levels in the two countries present contrasting features. Some practical applications are briefly discussed.     

Characteristics and availability of fatal road-crash databases in 20 countries worldwide

INTRODUCTION: This study examined the characteristics and availability of fatal road-crash databases worldwide. METHOD: The study involved two parts. First, the major international road databases were briefly reviewed. Second, the national databases in 20 selected countries were examined. RESULTS: (a) the available international databases of fatal road crashes typically include aggregated data; (b) there is a national database of fatal road crashes in each country examined; (c) all countries provide aggregated crash data, but there are substantial restrictions on the availability of disaggregated data; and (d) overall, the crash data at the accident level are relatively similar, but there are substantial differences in the information at the person level. CONCLUSION: The results imply that international road safety research would greatly benefit from expanded availability of disaggregated fatal crash data worldwide.     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

Fatal crash trends for Australian young drivers 1997-2007: Geographic and socioeconomic differentials

Background

Little has been published on changes in young driver fatality rates over time. This paper examines differences in Australian young driver fatality rates over the last decade, examining important risk factors including place of residence and socioeconomic status (SES).

Methods

Young driver (17-25 years) police-recorded passenger vehicle crashes were extracted from New South Wales State records from 1997-2007. Rurality of residence and SES were classified into three levels based on drivers’ residential postcode: urban, regional, or rural; and high, moderate, or low SES areas. Geographic and SES disparities in trends of fatality rates were examined by the generalized linear model. Chi-square trend test was used to examine the distributions of posted speed limits, drinking driving, fatigue, seatbelt use, vehicle age, night-time driving, and the time from crash to death across rurality and socioeconomic status.

Results

Young driver fatality rate significantly decreased 5% per year (p < 0.05); however, stratified analyses (by rurality and by SES) showed that only the reduction among urban drivers was significant (average 5% decrease per year, p < 0.01). The higher relative risk of fatality for rural versus urban drivers, and for drivers of low versus high SES remained unchanged over the last decade. High posted speed limits, fatigue, drink driving and seatbelt non-use were significantly associated with rural fatalities, whereas high posted speed limit, fatigue, and driving an older vehicle were significantly related to low SES fatality.

Conclusion

The constant geographic and SES disparities in young driver fatality rates highlight safety inequities for those living in rural areas and those of low SES. Better targeted interventions are needed, including attention to behavioral risk factors and vehicle age.