Investigation of multiple domino scenarios caused by fragments

A model of multiple domino scenarios and the risk of the domino effect, which is a sequential chain escalating from the primary unit to the last unit, is presented in this paper. The trajectories of fragments from all units, the ground distribution of projectiles, and the risk of the sequential chain of the domino effect were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the range affected by the fragments from each tank included the other tanks, meaning that fragments from one tank could hit the other tanks and cause multiple accidents, and that the sequential chain of the domino effect could indeed happen. The distributions of ground impacts showed that tank fragments were projected over long distances, up to 1200 m from the source. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy at ground impact for tank fragments was also obtained. Moreover, the magnitudes of the probabilities of the primary, secondary, third, and fourth accidents in the domino chain were respectively about 10⁻⁷, 10⁻¹¹, 10⁻¹⁵, and 10⁻¹⁹. These results showed that for neighboring domino effect units in the same accident chain, the risk of the most recent domino effect was 10⁴ times that of the following domino effect.     

Incompatible Land Uses and the Topology of Cumulative Risk

The extensive literature on environmental justice has, by now, well defined the essential ingredients of cumulative risk, namely, incompatible land uses and vulnerability. Most problematic is the case when risk is produced by a large aggregation of small sources of air toxics. In this article, we test these notions in an area of Southern California, Southeast Los Angeles (SELA), which has come to be known as Asthmatown. Developing a rapid risk mapping protocol, we scan the neighborhood for small potential sources of air toxics and find, literally, hundreds of small point sources within a 2-mile radius, interspersed with residences. We also map the estimated cancer risks and noncancer hazard indices across the landscape. We find that, indeed, such large aggregations of even small, nondominant sources of air toxics can produce markedly elevated levels of risk. In this study, the risk profiles show additional cancer risks of up to 800 in a million and noncancer hazard indices of up to 200 in SELA due to the agglomeration of small point sources. This is significant (for example, estimates of the average regional point-source-related cancer risk range from 125 to 200 in a million). Most importantly, if we were to talk about the risk contour as if they were geological structures, we would observe not only a handful of distinct peaks, but a general “mountain range” running all throughout the study area, which underscores the ubiquity of risk in SELA. Just as cumulative risk has deeply embedded itself into the fabric of the place, so, too, must intervention seek to embed strategies into the institutions and practices of SELA. This has implications for advocacy, as seen in a recently initiated participatory action research project aimed at building health research capacities into the community in keeping with an ethic of care.     

Methods for integrated assessment

Integrated assessment is an approach that seeks to involve all disciplines in policy-relevant assessment. The process aims to encompass environmental science, technology and policy problems. The aim is to establish an overview of the environmental issue in question that attempts to avoid the mistakes of the past associated with narrow, one-sided or unidimensional approaches. A number of methods are available for such assessments. However, they are also subject to a number of limitations, difficulties and dilemmas. Integrated methods are inherently complicated and the tradition is that only experts are involved. New more inclusionary procedures have to be devised in order to involve all stakeholders. They have to be involved in the framing of the issue and in the value judgements associated with the approach. The dilemmas cannot be solved by integrated approaches, but they can be mitigated via proper identification, analysis and evaluation of the gains and losses involved. In structuring the analysis the existence of ignorance has to be accounted for and communicated to the managers and the political decision makers. The ignorance/uncertainty aspects can be partially accommodated for via an intensification of feasible monitoring and research so as to minimise the risks of unpleasant surprises. Electronic Publication     

Studies on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in two sediment cores from the huaxi reservoir,china: Assessment of levels,sources, and ecological risk

This study investigated the levels, sources and ecological risks of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two sediment cores that were collected along the Huaxi Reservoir. The spatial distributions and residue levels of the 16 priority PAHs in the sediments from the Huaxi Reservoir were analyzed for their potential ecological risk, source apportionment and contribution to the total PAH residue. The concentration level of the total PAHs (TPAHs) was in the range 1805 ng·g^?1 to 20023 ng·g^?1 based on dry weight, and the content of PAHs in the Huaxi Reservoir exhibited a gradual upward trend. The PAH congener ratios fluoranthene/(fluoranthene + pyrene) and indeno[1, 2, 3-cd]pyrene/(indeno[1, 2, 3-cd]pyrene + benzo[g, h, i]perylene) were used to identify the source. The main source of the low molecular weight PAHs was wood and coal combustion, whereas the high molecular weight PAHs were primarily from petroleum combustion sources. The results of an ecological risk assessment demonstrated that ACE poses a potential ecological risk, while FLU, NAP, ANT, BaP, DBA, PHEN and PYR can have serious ecological risks.     

Can aquatic distribution of human pharmaceuticals be related to pharmacological data?

The recognition of pharmaceuticals as significant environmental contaminants has only been a recent phenomenon. Therefore there is a paucity of data relating to the fate and effects of pharmaceuticals once they enter an aquatic receiving system. The amount of work that needs to be done in terms of risk assessment for pharmaceuticals required by regulatory agencies is substantial. This paper has determined the environmental partitioning coefficient (K_d) of 13 diverse human pharmaceuticals in three model systems of differing combinations of solid phases and solutions. The K_d values were then compared with distribution values of the pharmaceuticals in the human body determined from pharmacological studies. This was done to assess the functional relationship between K_d and distribution values in the human body (V_D). K_d values ranged from 3 to 2450 L kg⁻¹. Regression coefficients ranged from r² = 0.62–0.72, indicating that V_D values are a useful indicator for the K_d values of the tested pharmaceuticals within the batch sorption systems. The relationship between K_d and V_D should therefore be further explored to determine whether this relationship can be applied to a broader range of pharmaceuticals in more diverse environmental systems. Exploiting available human pharmacological data in such a way would be of great benefit in prioritising human pharmaceuticals as environmental contaminants in the risk assessment process.     

Occupational risks and the value and modelling of a measurement of severity

In studies of occupational risks, severity, which is a component of the estimation of every risk, appears as a multifaceted entity assessable according to numerous criteria. A method of measuring the degree of severity of the consequences of potentially dangerous events would be of undeniable value to organisations seeking to improve their understanding of the complexity of such events. The need to control severity is highlighted by scientifically acquired improvements in the understanding of occupational risks, by certain new regulatory obligations in Europe, and by some requirements in the financial management of organisations. We put forward a statistical way of integrating several constituent elements of severity and hence of determining a relevant, synthetic, one-dimensional index. This is achieved by means of principal component analysis (PCA), which is used here to calculate a resultant severity, as in some physical measurements. We also investigate how severity may be statistically modelled, with the aim of contributing to the quantitative assessment of occupational risks. The choice of parametric models is detailed and illustrated by the search for a suitable model for workplace accidents in an organisational setting. The practical value of modelling severity is two-fold. First, one is able to study the distribution of the numerical values of severity over a continuum (a theoretically infinite numerical set) rather than through a limited number of arbitrarily defined categories. Second, with a generally applicable parametric model, one can estimate the law of probability of a measurement of severity in a particular situation, notably recent or new. Lastly, the statistical concept of risk curve is defined and discussed. The goal is to incorporate the severity component into the risk assessment in the form of a probability law, thus circumventing the difficulties associated with an analysis of scenarios.     

Molecular tools for bathing water assessment in Europe: Balancing social science research with a rapidly developing environmental science evidence-base

The use of molecular tools, principally qPCR, versus traditional culture-based methods for quantifying microbial parameters (e.g., Fecal Indicator Organisms) in bathing waters generates considerable ongoing debate at the science–policy interface. Advances in science have allowed the development and application of molecular biological methods for rapid (~2 h) quantification of microbial pollution in bathing and recreational waters. In contrast, culture-based methods can take between 18 and 96 h for sample processing. Thus, molecular tools offer an opportunity to provide a more meaningful statement of microbial risk to water-users by providing near-real-time information enabling potentially more informed decision-making with regard to water-based activities. However, complementary studies concerning the potential costs and benefits of adopting rapid methods as a regulatory tool are in short supply. We report on findings from an international Working Group that examined the breadth of social impacts, challenges, and research opportunities associated with the application of molecular tools to bathing water regulations.     

Investigation of the propensity of sulfide concentrates to spontaneous combustion in storage

Spontaneous combustion of sulfide concentrates can cause many serious problems during storage. In this study, two representative samples (sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate and iron-rich sulfide concentrate) were investigated for the self-heating behavior using the crossing-point temperature (CPT) method. The corresponding apparent activation energies were determined, 13.7366 kJ/mol for iron-rich sulfide concentrate and 21.3817 kJ/mol for sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate. Furthermore, the surface temperatures of sulfide concentrate stockpiles in different seasons were also measured by a thermal image apparatus. It was found the temperature for iron-rich sulfide concentrate stockpile was higher than that for rich-sulfur sulfide concentrate stockpile. These research results show iron-rich sulfide concentrate exhibits stronger propensity to spontaneous combustion than sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate. Particular attention should be paid to the fire hazard of iron-rich sulfide concentrate in daily safety check work. The combination of the CPT method with the infrared thermal image measurement provides a new approach for the risk assessment on the propensity of sulfide concentrates to spontaneous combustion during the production, storage and transportation. The useful data and experience achieved in this investigation can be also referenced in similar cases later.     

环境风险评价的实践与发展

环境风险评价（Environmental Risk Assessment ERA）是环境影响评价的一个重要分支,主要分析评价环境中的潜在危险。本文围绕开展ERA的必要怀、国内外ERA发展现状等方面进行了评述,在此基础上针对目前ERA工作中的不足提出了三点建议。     

Initial Screening of Contaminated Land: A Comparison of US and Swedish Methods

Preliminary surveys are used to prioritize between contaminated sites to select those to be investigated more thoroughly. The data-gathering steps are almost identical between countries; however, the assessment procedures differ significantly. In this study, we have investigated 21 contaminated sites assessed as belonging to the high-risk or the very high-risk class using the Swedish Methods for Inventories of Contaminated Sites (MICS). We then applied the US Preliminary Assessment (PA) method to the same sites and compared the results and conclusions from the two screening procedures. In both cases, all sites were recommended for further investigation and the two approaches seem to corroborate one another; however, the PA assessment scores and the preliminary MICS classifications did not correlate. The results obtained with the PA method were easier to explain than the final MICS classification. The PA method also seems more transparent and easier to standardize, although objections could be made regarding the weighting scheme, because the outcome in this study was entirely dependent on the surface exposure pathway. However, to examine this in greater detail, it is necessary to include sites with less contamination: The importance of preliminary surveys in the overall risk management process gives a strong motivation for such an evaluation. Generally, the lack of research and scientific support for the various assessment procedures in use suggests that there is a need for method development, standardization, and validation.