Objective: Administrative license revocation (ALR) laws, which provide that the license of a driver with a blood alcohol concentration at or over the illegal limit is subject to an immediate suspension by the state department of motor vehicles, are an example of a traffic law in which the sanction rapidly follows the offense. The power of ALR laws has been attributed to how swiftly the sanction is applied, but does the length of suspension matter? Our objectives were to (a) determine the relationship of the ALR suspension length to the prevalence of drinking drivers relative to sober drivers in fatal crashes and (b) estimate the extent to which the relationship is associated to the general deterrent effect compared to the specific deterrent effect of the law.Methods: Data comparing the impact of ALR law implementation and ALR law suspension periods were analyzed using structural equation modeling techniques on the ratio of drinking drivers to nondrinking drivers in fatal crashes from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS).Results: States with an ALR law with a short suspension period (1–30 days) had a significantly lower drinking driver ratio than states with no ALR law. States with a suspension period of 91–180 days had significantly lower ratios than states with shorter suspension periods, while the three states with suspension lengths of 181 days or longer had significantly lower ratios than states with shorter suspension periods.Discussion: The implementation of any ALR law was associated with a 13.1% decrease in the drinking/nondrinking driver fatal crash ratio but only a 1.8% decrease in the intoxicated/nonintoxicated fatal crash ratio. The ALR laws and suspension lengths had a significant general deterrent effect, but no specific deterrent effect.Practical Implications: States might want to keep (or adopt) ALR laws for their general deterrent effects and pursue alternatives for specific deterrent effects. States with short ALR suspension periods should consider lengthening them to 91 days or longer. 相似文献
Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts. 相似文献
Objective: The objective of this study was to leverage a state health department's operational data to allocate in-kind resources (children's car seats) to counties, with the proposition that need-based allocation could ultimately improve public health outcomes.
Methods: This study used a retrospective analysis of administrative data on car seats distributed to counties statewide by the Georgia Department of Public Health and development of a need-based allocation tool (presented as interactive supplemental digital content, adaptable to other types of in-kind public health resources) that relies on current county-level injury and sociodemographic data.
Results: Car seat allocation using public health data and a need-based formula resulted in substantially different recommended allocations to individual counties compared to historic distribution.
Conclusions: Results indicate that making an in-kind public health resource like car seats universally available results in a less equitable distribution of that resource compared to deliberate allocation according to public health need. Public health agencies can use local data to allocate in-kind resources consistent with health objectives; that is, in a manner offering the greatest potential health impact. Future analysis can determine whether the change to a more equitable allocation of resources is also more efficient, resulting in measurably improved public health outcomes. 相似文献
Two measures of aggressivity of Australian passenger vehicles have been developed. The first measures the aggressivity to occupants of other cars. This type of aggressivity rating is based on two-car crashes between passenger vehicles and measures the injury risk each make/model in the collisions poses to the drivers of the other vehicles. The second measures aggressivity to unprotected road users. These aggressivity ratings reflect the threat of severe injury to pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists by die make/model of vehicle colliding with them. This analysis was based on nearly 102,000 drivers involved in tow-away crashes with the makes/models which were the focus of the study and on nearly 22,000 injured pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists. The results suggest that crasbworthiness and aggressivity are two different aspects of a vehicle's safety performance, with good performance on one dimension not necessarily being associated with good performance on the other. 相似文献
Stedinger, Jery R. and Veronica W. Griffis, 2011. Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):506‐513. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00545.x Abstract: Modeling variations in flood risk due to climate change and climate variability are a challenge to our profession. Flood‐risk computations by United States (U.S.) federal agencies follow guidelines in Bulletin 17 for which the latest update 17B was published in 1982. Efforts are underway to update that remarkable document. Additional guidance in the Bulletin as to how to address variation in flood risk over time would be welcome. Extensions of the log‐Pearson type 3 model to include changes in flood risk over time would be relatively easy mathematically. Here an example of the use of a sea surface temperature anomaly to anticipate changes in flood risk from year to year in the U.S. illustrates this opportunity. Efforts to project the trend in the Mississippi River flood series beg the question as to whether an observed trend will continue unabated, has reached its maximum, or is really nothing other than climate variability. We are challenged with the question raised by Milly and others: Is stationarity dead? Overall, we do not know the present flood risk at a site because of limited flood records. If we allow for historical climate variability and climate change, we know even less. But the issue is not whether stationarity is dead – the issue is how to use all the information available to reliably forecast flood risk in the future: “Where do we go from here?” 相似文献
ABSTRACT: A regional adjustment relationship was developed to estimate long-term (30-year) monthly median discharges from short term (three-year) records. This method differs from traditional approaches in that it is based on site-specific discharge data but does not require correlation of these data with discharges from a single hydrologically similar long-term gage. The method is shown to be statistically robust, and applicable to statistics other than the median. 相似文献