ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.     

潮湿引起感烟火灾探测器误报研究

针对潮湿现象成为典型的火灾探测误报源 ,在火灾探测综合模拟实验平台中 ,通过收集水沸腾形成的水雾进行加湿 ,研究了冬季与夏季潮湿环境 ,对散射型光电感烟火灾探测器的发生误报影响。通过比较探测器的输出值与其附近湿度变化曲线 ,从原理上分析了误报发生的原因。实验结果表明 :在气温较低的冬季 ,水蒸气较易形成液态小水珠 ,容易导致感烟探测器误报警 ,而在夏季由于气温较高 ,这种情况较难发生。对相对湿度较高或达到饱和湿度 ,以及非火灾因素的雾气或微细水珠 ,对感烟探测器可靠性的影响 ,开展下进一步的工作进行了展望     

最小割集在系统安全分析方法中的应用

利用事故树分析法对矿井火灾进行分析 ,结合平煤六矿建立了矿井火灾事故树。阐述了最小割集理论及其在事故分析中的作用 ,着重提出了对事故树底部事件进行排序分级的加权结构重要度分析法。该方法新颖、简洁而实用 ,为系统安全分析提供了新的方法和途径。     

Effects of pore volume-transmissivity correlation on transport phenomena

The relevant velocity that describes transport phenomena in a porous medium is the pore velocity. For this reason, one needs not only to describe the variability of transmissivity, which fully determines the Darcy velocity field for given source terms and boundary conditions, but also any variability of the pore volume. We demonstrate that hydraulically equivalent media with exactly the same transmissivity field can produce dramatic differences in the displacement of a solute if they have different pore volume distributions. In particular, we demonstrate that correlation between pore volume and transmissivity leads to a much smoother and more homogeneous solute distribution. This was observed in a laboratory experiment performed in artificial fractures made of two plexiglass plates into which a space-dependent aperture distribution was milled. Using visualization by a light transmission technique, we observe that the solute behaviour is much smoother and more regular after the fractures are filled with glass powder, which plays the role of a homogeneous fault gouge material. This is due to a perfect correlation between pore volume and transmissivity that causes pore velocity to be not directly dependent on the transmissivity, but only indirectly through the hydraulic gradient, which is a much smoother function due to the diffusive behaviour of the flow equation acting as a filter. This smoothing property of the pore volume-transmissivity correlation is also supported by numerical simulations of tracer tests in a dipole flow field. Three different conceptual models are used: an empty fracture, a rough-walled fracture filled with a homogeneous material and a parallel-plate fracture with a heterogeneous fault gouge. All three models are hydraulically equivalent, yet they have a different pore volume distribution. Even if piezometric heads and specific flow rates are exactly the same at any point of the domain, the transport process differs dramatically. These differences make it important to discriminate in situ among different conceptual models in order to simulate correctly the transport phenomena. For this reason, we study the solute breakthrough and recovery curves at the extraction wells. Our numerical case studies show that discrimination on the basis of such data might be impossible except under very favourable conditions, i.e. the integral scale of the transmissivity field has to be known and small compared to the dipole size. If the latter conditions are satisfied, discrimination between the rough-walled fracture filled with a homogeneous material and the other two models becomes possible, whereas the parallel-plate fracture with a heterogeneous fault gouge and the empty fracture still show identifiability problems. The latter may be solved by inspection of aperture and pressure testing.     

NONPARAMETRIC TEST PERFORMANCE FOR TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY WITH SAMPLING DESIGN APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: In this paper four nonparametric tests for monotonic trend detection are compared with respect to their power and accuracy. The importance of comparing powers at equal empirical significance levels rather than nominal levels is stressed. Therefore, an appropriate graphical method is presented. The effect of the sampling frequency is also assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and a trajectory representation that visualizes the dynamics of the trade-off between the type I and type II errors. These methods are applied to compare four nonparametrical tests (seasonal Mann. Kendall, modified seasonal Mann-Kendall, covariance eigenvalue and covariance inversion) under several conditions. It is concluded with respect to the power that it is not worthwhile for the modified seasonal Mann-Kendall test applied to the AR(1) process considered in this paper to increase the sampling frequency from monthly to biweekly for detecting a monotonic trend of 5 percent, 10 percent, or 15 percent of the process variance. Under these conditions the seasonal Mann-Kendall test is highly liberal, while the covariance inversion and the covariance eigenvalue test are conservative. This research is situated in the development of an efficient sampling design for the Flemish water quality monitoring network.     

ESTIMATING THE MEAN AND VARIANCE OF CENSORED PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN FLORIDA RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: The total phosphorous (TP) concentrations in the South Florida rainfall have been recorded in weekly intervals with a detection limit (D_L) of 3.5 μg/L. As a large amount of the data is reported as below the D_L, appropriate statistical methods are needed for data analysis. Thus, an attempt was made to identify an appropriate method to estimate the mean and variance of the data. In particular, a method to separate the statistics for the below D_L portion from the estimated population statistics is proposed. The estimated statistics of the censored data are compared with the statistics of the uncensored data available from the recent years’ laboratory records. It was found that the one-step restricted maximum likelihood method is the most accurate for the wet TP data, and that the proposed method to combine the estimated statistics for TP < D_L portion and the sample statistics for TP ≥ D_L portion improves estimates compared to the conventional maximum likelihood estimates.     

REGIONAL SCALE TREND MONITORING OF INDICATORS OF TROPHIC CONDITION OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a sample survey design to answer questions about the ecological condition and trends in condition of U.S. ecological resources. To meet the objectives, the design relies on a probability sample of the resource population of interest (e.g., a random sample of lakes) each year on which measurements are made during an index period. Natural spatial and temporal variability and variability in the sampling process all affect the ability to describe the status of a population and the sensitivity for trend detection. We describe the important components of variance and estimate their magnitude for indicators of trophic condition of lakes to illustrate the process. We also describe models for trend detection and use them to demonstrate the sensitivity of the proposed design to detect trends. If the variance structure that develops during the probability surveys is like that synthesized from available databases and the literature, then the trends in common indicators of trophic condition of the specified magnitude should be detectable within about a decade for Secchi disk transparency (0.5–1 percentiyear) and total phosphorus (2–3 percent/year), but not for chlorophyll-a (> 3–4 percent/year), which will take longer.     

TESTING FOR TREND IN LAKE AND GROUND WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: The detection of gradual trends in water quality time series is increasing in importance as concern grows for diffuse sources of pollution such as acid precipitation and agricultural non-point sources. A significant body of literature has arisen dealing with trend detection in water quality variables that exhibit seasonal patterns. Much of the literature has dealt with seasonality of the first moment. However, little has been mentioned about seasonality in the variance, and its effect upon the performance of trend detection techniques. In this paper, eight methods of trend detection that arise from both the statistical literature as well as the water quality literature have been compared by means of a simulation study. Varying degrees of seasonality in both the variances and the means have been introduced into the artificial data, and the performances of these procedures are analyzed. Since the focus is on lake and ground water quality monitoring, quarterly sampling and short to moderate record lengths are examined.     

ESTIMATING MEAN AND VARIANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLES WITH BELOW DETECTION LIMIT OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Left-censoring of data sets complicates subsequent statistical analyses. Generally, substitution or deletion methods provide poor estimates of the mean and variance of censored samples. These substitution and deletion methods include the use of values above the detection limit (DL) only, or substitution of 0, DL/2 or the DL for the below DL values during the calculation of mean and variance. A variety of statistical methods provides better estimators for different types of distributions and censoring. Maximum likelihood and order statistics methods compare favorably to the substitution or deletion methods. Selected statistical methods applicable to left-censoring of environmental data sets are reviewed with the purpose of demonstrating the use of these statistical methods for coping with Type I (and Type II) left-censoring of normally and log-normally distributed environmental data sets. A PC program (UNCENSOR) is presented that implements these statistical methods. Problems associated with data sets with multiple DLs are discussed relative to censoring methods for life and fatigue tests as recently applied to water quality data sets.     

TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation - statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation - selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis - exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests - tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.