A Multidisciplinary Decision Support System for Forest Fire Crisis Management

A wildland fire is a serious threat for forest ecosystems in Southern Europe affecting severely and irreversibly regions of significant ecological value as well as human communities. To support decision makers during large-scale forest fire incidents, a multidisciplinary system has been developed that provides rational and quantitative information based on the site-specific circumstances and the possible consequences. The systems architecture consists of several distinct supplementary modules of near real-time satellite monitoring and fire forecast using an integrated framework of satellite Remote Sensing, GIS, and RDBMS technologies equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The system may handle multiple fire ignitions and support decisions regarding dispatching of utilities, equipment, and personnel that would appropriately attack the fire front. The operational system was developed for the region of Penteli Mountain in Attika, Greece, one of the mountain areas in the country most hit by fires. Starting from a real fire incident in August 2000, a scenario is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Disaster warning and evacuation responses by private business employees

When people are advised that their place of employment is threatened with disaster, how do they respond? Interviews with employees (n=406) of 118 businesses affected by one of seven recent disasters provide the first answers to this question. Multivariate analyses document the key variables that best predict variation are: 1) emergent perceptions of risk; 2) time of evacuation from work; 3) time of evacuation from home; 4) multiple evacuations; and 5) tension between work and family commitments. When warned of impending disaster, most employees initially responded with denial. Gradually, however, emergent perceptions of risk intensified especially among those living in communities in which the least amount of disaster planning had occurred or who resided in a mobile home or apartment. Highest levels of work and family tensions during these evacuations were reported by racial minority employees who had children living at home. Policy implications for these and other findings are discussed so as to pin‐point changes business managers should make that will enable them to provide the leadership and compassion expected by employees.     

外界风对小城镇多层建筑火灾流场的影响

随着市场经济的不断发展,城市化的进程加快,农村人口向城市流动,使小城镇建设规模不断扩大,因而火灾等各种灾害对小城镇居民的生命和财产所造成的损失也越来越大。火灾时,外界风向、风速对火灾流场可能产生很大的影响。笔者根据小城镇一般民宅和建筑物的高度特点建立相应的几何模型和物理模型,利用Phoenics软件,从理论上研究了小城镇一幢楼房不同位置的房间发生火灾时,外界吹来不同风速的正向或侧向风,对房间内外稳态温度场与流场的影响。特别研究了房间内热气流流出窗外向上运动的浮力和外界风力相互作用发生的现象及其对房间内流动的影响。同时,还对不同外界风速情况下,房间内外速度中性面倾斜的角度等问题进行了初步讨论     

基于人工神经网络的城市火灾事故的预测方法

随着社会经济的飞速发展,城市化进程的加快和人口的迅速增长,城市火灾频繁发生,造成的损失呈上升趋势。针对城市火灾事故发生的特点,根据人工神经网络基本原理和特性,建立了城市火灾事故神经网络预测模型;为了更精确预测城市火灾事故的发生,将城市火灾事故分为了高峰期(春节)和非高峰期两个时段分别进行预测;应用神经网络预测模型和分时段相结合方法对某城市火灾事故进行了实际预测。结果表明,神经网络模型是城市火灾事故预测的有效工具,该模型与时段法的结合能准确预测火灾事故发生的趋势。     

地铁站火灾烟气三维动态场模拟

由于城市地铁的建设在我国迅速发展,地铁站的火灾防范和安全疏散成为一个重要的研究课题。为了探讨地铁站火灾烟气的发展流动规律,笔者根据我国大多数现有地铁站的建筑结构模式建立了双层地铁车站的物理模型,并采用CFD的方法完成了火灾烟流三维动态的场模拟。在模拟中采用Rosseland辐射模型,将火源设定为放热量随时间变化的热源。计算结果表明在没有机械通风的情况下,烟气6分钟就将充满整个地铁站,人员难以在规范要求的时间内安全疏散。该研究成果可以为地铁站火灾发生时人员的安全疏散及烟气的控制提供一定的理论基础。     

火灾风险评价的随机过程模型

运用事故树分析法和随机过程的马尔克夫模型，建立了评价火灾风险的动态模型．运用该模型能够计算某一系统特定地点起火后风险机率的时间分布，并能够指导消防设计和消防管理。     

高层建筑安全疏散对策探讨

扼要分析了建筑物火灾危害及致灾因素和火灾中人的行为；探讨了在高层建筑火灾中人员安全疏散应侧重考虑的问题。     

树冠火蔓延模型和数值分析

本文计及森林多孔性燃烧床含水量和有机物含量，以及渗流气体的受热膨胀和质量源，建立了树冠火蔓延的一维物理模型，给出火蔓延的控制方程组和定解条件。通过数值分析，得到树冠火蔓延速度特性曲线，研究水份蒸发和有机物热解对树冠火蔓延速度的影响。     

沿固体木板面火蔓延状况的影像测量方法研究

本文就火在固体木板面蔓延的影像测量方法进行了研究，提出了利用彩色序列影像进行固体木板表面火蔓延状况测量的新方法，通过对垂直木板面和倾斜木板面火蔓延的实际测量试验，验证了该方法的有效性。