人群疏散中"非适应性"行为的研究

本文从人与人的相互作用和社会学、心理学的角度,对人群疏散中“非适应性”行为的理论、计算机模型、模拟原理等进行了较为深入的研究,并以具体实例说明了Building Exodus软件在人群疏散模拟分析中的具体应用,为完善该研究方向的计算机模型和促进软件的开发提供理论和方法的指导.文章得出的结论是：“非适应”人群行为的研究需要从心理学和社会学的角度建立人群中个人行为与社会行为的理论框架.“非适应”人群行为的研究方法必须与紧急情况相结合,而紧急情况是一个由多个人员组成的复杂系统,大量人群环境的模拟需要涉及到人与人之间,人与环境之间的相互作用.     

东荣三矿粉煤灰复合胶体防灭火技术应用与实践

双鸭山东荣三矿2 0 0 3年发生火灾,开始应用注水、注惰、注灭火剂等方法,均未控制住火势。后来,通过该矿现有的灌浆系统,形成复合胶体管网式防灭火系统,利用该系统向火区周围密闭墙内大量压注粉煤灰复合胶体,堵塞了向火区漏风的通道,扑灭了大范围火源。接着启开火区下部的运输上山,从运输上山向火区打钻,由钻孔直接向火区注复合胶体,彻底扑灭了火灾,保障了矿井安全生产。实践表明,复合胶体管网式防灭火技术是一种快速高效的防灭火技术,适应大面积煤层火灾的防治要求。     

基于GIS的地震次生火灾蔓延范围模拟

地震次生火灾对人类的危害极大。笔者首先在对阻止火蔓延的因素进行分析以及对以往调查资料分析的基础上,确定了阻止火蔓延的距离与建筑物结构及防火类型的关系。然后,在阻止火蔓延距离的基础上,确定了地震次生火灾蔓延范围模拟的方法以及流程。最后,以汕头市为例,对地震次生火灾蔓延范围进行了模拟。通过对地震次生火灾蔓延范围的研究,为地震应急救灾提供了决策的科学依据。     

Using Satellite Fire Detection to Calibrate Components of the Fire Weather Index System in Malaysia and Indonesia

Vegetation fires have become an increasing problem in tropical environments as a consequence of socioeconomic pressures and subsequent land-use change. In response, fire management systems are being developed. This study set out to determine the relationships between two aspects of the fire problems in western Indonesia and Malaysia, and two components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The study resulted in a new method for calibrating components of fire danger rating systems based on satellite fire detection (hotspot) data. Once the climate was accounted for, a problematic number of fires were related to high levels of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code. The relationship between climate, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, and hotspot occurrence was used to calibrate Fire Occurrence Potential classes where low accounted for 3% of the fires from 1994 to 2000, moderate accounted for 25%, high 26%, and extreme 38%. Further problems arise when there are large clusters of fires burning that may consume valuable land or produce local smoke pollution. Once the climate was taken into account, the hotspot load (number and size of clusters of hotspots) was related to the Fire Weather Index. The relationship between climate, Fire Weather Index, and hotspot load was used to calibrate Fire Load Potential classes. Low Fire Load Potential conditions (75% of an average year) corresponded with 24% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 30% of the largest cluster. In contrast, extreme Fire Load Potential conditions (1% of an average year) corresponded with 30% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 58% of the maximum. Both Fire Occurrence Potential and Fire Load Potential calibrations were successfully validated with data from 2001. This study showed that when ground measurements are not available, fire statistics derived from satellite fire detection archives can be reliably used for calibration. More importantly, as a result of this work, Malaysia and Indonesia have two new sources of information to initiate fire prevention and suppression activities.     

高层建筑火灾情况下利用电梯疏散的案例研究

随着我国城市化进程的加快，城市人口日益增多，高层建筑数量剧增，其所面临的安全疏散问题也越来越突出。在高层建筑火灾中，楼梯疏散是人们常推荐使用的逃生工具，但是它存在疏散时间长的弊端。高层建筑拥有一定数量的电梯，充分发挥垂直交通的优势，已经成为“9．11”之后国际火灾科学研究的热点。事实上，在过去发生的火灾案例中，已经有许多人员利用电梯来进行安全疏散。选取某高层住宅火灾为研究案例，采用电梯疏散ELVAC模型和楼梯疏散SIMULEX模型，分析了电梯数量、人员分布等对电梯疏散的影响。研究结果表明，采用楼梯和电梯相结合的混合疏散方式可以有效地提高疏散效率。     

Urban riverbank residents’ evaluation of flood evacuation policies in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

The results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) as a part of a survey among the urban riverbank residents on the Red River in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, indicated that the risk of over-dike flooding, set at 2 ft above the 1997 flood water level, was a significant determinant of both voluntary and mandatory evacuation, compared to those set at the 1996 or 1997 levels. Mandatory evacuation was more preferred over voluntary evacuation when the likelihood of flooding was at its most severe, and the opposite relationship was the case when the likelihood was low. The notification time for evacuation, suggested as 1, 2, and 4 days, proved to be an insignificant attribute, whereas the respondents indicated significant preference for full flood compensation over an offer of either 80% or 90% flood relief, irrespective of the alternatives of voluntary or mandatory evacuation.     

基于虚拟现实的建筑火灾模拟系统

提出了将虚拟现实技术应用于建筑火灾模拟的方法,在交互式虚拟环境中实现了基于火灾数值模拟的火灾场景模拟。根据火灾场模拟软件FDS的计算结果,控制虚拟火灾场景中火焰和烟雾的蔓延,使得虚拟场景中火灾的发展接近实际火灾的情况。模拟系统中通过纹理贴图和粒子系统等技术实现了逼真的火灾场景可视化。还介绍了实现灭火作战模拟和训员疏散模拟的技术细节。在以上方法的基础上研制了建筑火灾模拟原型系统,该系统可应用于电子消防预案制作、灭火作战演练、人员疏散演练、建筑性能化防火设计与评估,以及灾害条件下人的疏散行为研究等各个方面。     

大型商场营业厅设计疏散人数指标体系研究

针对大型商场营业厅设计疏散人数指标体系的研究现状与存在问题,提出了设计疏散人数指标体系的安全保证率理念,论证了大型商场营业厅设计疏散人数取双休日(而不取黄金周)人数指标的合理性.进一步优化了大型商场营业厅疏散人数指标体系,进一步减少了以此为根据设计的楼梯间宽度,为修编<建筑设计防火规范>提供参考依据.     

关于地下铁道火灾防治措施的思考

在地下铁道中 ,一旦发生火灾事故 ,后果不堪设想。笔者从地下铁道的设计、结构及管理等方面分析了地铁火灾的特点与产生的原因 ,并针对性地提出了一些诸如完善建筑设计、改善通风技术、建立一个科学而有效的管理控制中心等安全对策。     

Evaluation of the Fire Simulation Processes of the National Fire Management System's Initial Attack Analysis Processor

The fire simulation processes of the National Fire Management System's (NFMAS) Initial Attack Analysis (IAA) processor were evaluated by conducting two types of sensitivity analysis: one based on a hypothetical set of data to assess IAA's outputs under a wide range of fire input values, and the other using an actual Stanislaus National Forest database to test IAA's validity with a real set of data. The results revealed that IAA's outputs (projected annual number of fires and area burned) were most sensitive, in descending order, to the input values of the fire spread rate, the productivity rates of the suppression forces, and the initial attack time, for all fuel models tested. In contrast, IAA's outputs were extremely insensitive to variations in the fire size at discovery. Changes are necessary in the ways IAA incorporates the fire size at discovery to facilitate the comparison among various fire detection options. The program's “escaped fire situation” analysis was found inadequate, because the projected annual frequencies and final sizes of the simulated escaped fire events produced unacceptable results with the Stanislaus National Forest database. Assigning final sizes to simulated escaped fires according to the fire intensity level in which they are historically expected to occur provides a consistent way of calculation of the projected annual area burned and the consequent cost plus net value change (C + NVC).